Toronto’s Off-season Miscalculation?
It’s still early but the trade that the Blue Jays and Diamondbacks made in the off-season is not going as expected for Toronto.
The Toronto Blue Jays have been 1 of the most disappointing teams in baseball to start the season as they enter today in the basement of the American League East (26-25). For the last couple of years, many have been waiting for the Blue Jays young and talented core to put it all together and put their stamp on the baseball world. This is a team that is loaded with star players, willing to spend money and make trades to improve the roster, but hasn’t gotten past the Wild Card round since 2016.
The Toronto offense has been one of the best in baseball over the last couple of years led by their young core of Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Many thought they were too right-handed dominant in years past. In the off-season, the Blue Jays tried to correct that issue by trading some of their proven right-handed bats to acquire a left-handed bat. The Jays traded Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and catching prospect Gabriel Moreno to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Daulton Varsho, a left-handed outfielder. They also traded outfielder Teoscar Hernandez to Seattle for reliever Erik Swanson and prospect Adam Macko.
To understand these moves, it is important to realize just how good Gurriel Jr. and Hernandez were for the Toronto Blue Jays last season.
Hernandez was someone who hit in the middle of the Toronto lineup last season providing protection for guys like Guerrero Jr. and Bichette. From ‘21-’22, Hernandez hit the 24th most home runs (57) in baseball and had the 17th most RBI (193). Teoscar became a steady and reliable presence in the Toronto lineup and trading him for a reliever seemed a little risky, even though they did acquire Varsho. The concern with Hernandez has been the K-rate, although he was coming off of back-to-back seasons with a K-rate less than 29%. This season, Hernandez is off to a slow start with only a 92 wRC+ and 9 home runs.
Gurriel Jr. was really a “throw-in” in the trade with the Diamondbacks but he was a valuable and diverse bat in the Blue Jays lineup. With a player like Gurriel Jr, power is never expected but his ability to put the ball in play (16.8% K-rate in ‘22) and his ability to get on base for the rest of the offense is valuable (.343 OBP in ‘22). In a lineup like Toronto’s that has so many power hitters, having a couple of guys to get on base is important.
I acknowledge that we are still looking at a small sample size (51 games) but the Toronto offense does not appear to be as dynamic as it was in years past. The major league season is now over 30% percent complete and we can start to judge teams for who they are or who they are not. There is still plenty of time for teams to turn things around but the early numbers with the Toronto offense with the additions and subtractions have been very noticeable.
Through 51 games, the Toronto offense ranks 10th in runs and 6th in wRC+ (110). Prior to Tuesday’s 20 run performance, they ranked 13th in runs and 10th in wRC+. By saying that, I am not taking away that 20 run performance because it happened and against that Tampa Bay pitching staff, 20 runs is impressive. But in the other 3 games in the series that were losses, they scored 4, 3, 3. Since this young Toronto core debuted, it’s been one of the better run scoring offenses in all of baseball no matter who they are facing.
‘22: Runs: 4th / wRC+: 2nd
‘21: Runs: 3rd / wRC+: 2nd
Toronto’s stars are still performing at a high level. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is still 38% better than league average (138 wRC+) and Bo Bichette is 42% better than league average (142 wRC+). Even Matt Chapman has been great this season (144 wRC+). It’s the next group of players that are not contributing as expected. George Springer has really struggled to start the season (98 wRC+). Alejandro Kirk is still getting on base at a high rate but is not hitting like he did last year (.248 BA). And their key trade addition, Daulton Varsho, has really struggled. Varsho is only hitting .214 with a .284 OBP and 7 home runs.
Varsho took a big jump forward last season with the Arizona Diamondbacks as he hit 27 home runs but he did not hit for a high average (.246) or have a really high OBP (.304). Varsho made some big improvements in his age 25 season and I understand why the Blue Jays would want to acquire a left-handed bat to compliment all of their righties. But Toronto did trade 2 bats who had been big contributors over the past 2 seasons for a young player who had a breakout season while playing in meaningless games in Arizona.
What makes the Varsho trade hurt is Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is off to his best start of his career hitting .317 / .372 / .557 with 8 home runs. Gurriel Jr. already has 3 more home runs this season than he did in all of last year despite playing in roughly ⅓ of the games. Will Gurriel keep up this level of production for the next 100 games? Would you bet on Gurriel Jr. to outproduce Varsho over the final 4 months?
I realize that it is easy to make an argument when a player is off to a great start and the other player has struggled. But with the Blue Jays playing in the AL East, they find themselves 10.5 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays and looking up at every other team in the East. The first 51 games matter and we know what the Blue Jays lineup was able to do with Gurriel Jr. and Hernandez. We are seeing a different team this season and I can’t help but wonder if the chemistry and if the lineup just doesn’t mesh like it did in previous seasons.
Toronto’s window for winning is now. Eventually, they will have to pay Guerrero Jr. and Bichette big, big bucks. This core group has yet to win a division or win a playoff game. The MLB season is a marathon and there is plenty of time for the Blue Jays to accomplish big things. But they have made their path to success extremely difficult.