When it comes to drafting and developing pitching talent, Craig Breslow and the system that he has put in place deserves a ton of credit. Developing Connelly Early and Payton Tolle into reliable big league arms in year one is impressive. Both pitchers have substantial upside that could eventually lead to at least one of them leading this Boston rotation in the future. Breslow deserves credit for that.

While I do believe any CBO could have come in and made a trade for Garrett Crochet with Boston’s farm system at the time, Breslow did identify Crochet as the guy to lead the Red Sox rotation for the future. He also identified Aroldis Chapman as someone who they could tweak and get back to being a dominant reliever. And that has worked out brilliantly. While there are other successes or wins in maximizing pitchers, there also have been some misses. Some of the misses have been franchise altering misses.

Let’s start with one of Craig Breslow’s first moves as CBO of the Boston Red Sox. He came in and identified Chris Sale as a guy who needed to get out of Boston and traded him along with a significant amount of money for Vaughn Grissom. In his first season away from the organization, not only was he finally healthy but he was the best pitcher in the National League in 2024.

Photo Credit: Kevin D. Liles/Atlanta Braves / Contributor / Getty Images

29 GS: 177 IP, 2.38 ERA, 11.4 K/9

Sale did something he never did with the Red Sox, which was win the Cy Young Award. For the entire 2024 season, Boston was looking for an ace. It turns out Breslow had one and paid him a lot of money to win a Cy Young for the Braves. To make matters worse, Vaughn Grissom was cut by Boston and is now playing fairly well for the Los Angeles Angels.

The next miss was Nick Pivetta. The Nick Pivetta era in Boston was a frustrating one. There were some ups and some big downs. But the Red Sox were never able to unlock Pivetta’s full potential as he never had an ERA under 4.00 in his tenure with the club. Breslow elected to offer Pivetta a qualifying offer, which he turned down. The Red Sox never appeared interested in working out an extension with Pivetta. He chose to take his talents to San Diego and in his first season with the Padres, Pivetta unlocked that potential that was evident in Boston.

31 GS: 181 IP, 2.87 ERA, 9.4 K/9

Pivetta finished sixth in the Cy Young voting.

Breslow also made a trade early in the 2025 season trading Quinn Priester to the Milwaukee Brewers for two minor leaguers (Neither are in the Red Sox updated top 30 according to Baseball America) and a draft pick. Priester went on to have a great season for the Brewers.

29 G (24 GS): 157 IP, 3.32 ERA, 7.6 K/9

The Red Sox never even gave Priester a shot coming out of Spring Training. The Red Sox ended up looking for pitching at the deadline and settled for Dustin May, who had a 5.40 ERA in 6 games. Pivetta or Priester could have helped the 2025 Boston Red Sox.

Similarly to Quinn Priester, the Red Sox traded Kyle Harrison to the Milwaukee Brewers for Caleb Durbin, Andruw Monasterio, and Anthony Seigler. While the Red Sox rotation has been solid this season, you can’t tell me they couldn’t use a guy like Kyle Harrison. In a loaded NL Cy Young race to start the season with Cristopher Sanchez, Jacob Misiorowski, and once again Chris Sale, Kyle Harrison is right there.

Photo Credit: Patrick McDermott / Contributor / Getty Images

11 GS: 57 IP, 1.57 ERA, 11.5 K/9

Watching another pitcher dominate for the Brewers begs the question, “What are they doing differently that the Red Sox are not doing?” How can they turn two pitchers in two years into very good big league starters and the Red Sox under Craig Breslow couldn’t even let them try to pitch for the big league club. The Harrison trade also burns a little more knowing he was the big piece in the return for Rafael Devers and he wasn’t even in Boston for a calendar year.

An unforgotten man in the Kyle Harrison trade who also went to Milwaukee was Shane Drohan. The Red Sox have been looking for a lefty reliever all season. They are throwing guys like Alec Gamboa and Joe La Sorsa, who was pitching in Triple-A for the Pirates. His first pitch Sunday was a 3-run home run to Jazz Chisholm Jr. Drohan has been really good for the Brewers pitching out of their bullpen.

12 G: 31 IP, 2.87 ERA, 9.5 K/9.

Maybe Breslow didn’t know what he had in Drohan. Or maybe the Brewers just knew how to unlock Drohan so that he could contribute at the big league level.

Maybe the worst error on Craig Breslow’s ledger has been the failure of Brayan Bello. One of the things that Craig Breslow has done as CBO of the Red Sox is extend a lot of the Red Sox young players. Brayan Bello was one of the first players that Breslow extended prior to the 2024 season (6 / $55M). While many can see the talent that Brayan Bello possessed at the time of the extension, the character of the player is what Breslow may have completely forgotten to take into account.

Bello has been unable to control his emotions on the mound. He is rattled easily and struggles to fight when things don’t go his way. Bello has been the worst qualified pitcher in baseball in 2026 and now he is down in Triple-A. The Red Sox still owe Bello $44M over the next 3 seasons. Under Breslow and pitching coach Andrew Bailey’s watch, Brayan Bello has regressed significantly. His best pitch, the change up, is no longer his best pitch. And more noticeably, Bello has lost all of his confidence.

Too Many Misses?

While every GM or CBO is going to have a few misses, Craig Breslow has had some massive misses in his two and a half years with the Red Sox. With the team significantly underperforming in year three, you have to question if he is the right guy for the job. With an inability to build a productive lineup, his judgment deserves to be questioned regarding pitching as well.

With all of the articles that were released last week suggesting he struggles with communication and that there is frustration with how he is running the organization, it’s hard to picture things turning around. It’s also difficult to see how the Red Sox can stick with him as the main shot caller for the organization when the organization is in free fall.

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When James Wood was a part of the package returning to Washington for Juan Soto, he wasn’t the main piece of the deal. Pitcher MacKenzie Gore and infielder C.J. Abrams were the big pieces. James Wood was glowing with potential but at the time of the deal, it was about the potential tools rather than something definite that the Nationals were receiving. Almost four years later and Gore is gone, Abrams is finally breaking out and Robert Hassell III, who was another top prospect in the deal, has been a bust. James Wood has quickly become the best player in the deal.

Photo Credit: Jamie Sabau / Contributor / Getty Images

Wood’s first full season in the big leagues was last season in his age 22 season. Wood hit 31 home runs, produced a 127 wRC+, and was a 3.6 bWAR player. It was an impressive rookie season for such a young player. The main concerns surrounding Wood were the strikeouts (227) and how much he really struggled in the second half compared to his first half (1st Half: 150 wRC+ | 2nd Half: 90 wRC+).

What many often forget is a player’s first full season of 162 can be taxing. Players can’t really prepare for a big league season until they experience it for themselves. What everyone wanted to see Wood do is respond in a big way to start 2026. And that’s exactly what he has done.

In 61 games, Wood is hitting .272 | .411 | .548 with 16 home runs. Wood finds himself at the top of many statistical categories and his Baseball Savant page is ridiculous.

OBP: 4th

SLG: 7th

HR: 7th

fWAR: 5th

For Wood to turn into one of the game’s best offensive players at the age of 23 is a massive win for the Nationals. If Washington doesn’t try to extend Wood, you have to wonder if this organization is serious about winning. They have finished in the basement of the NL East every season since they won the World Series in 2019. A player like James Wood should be the centerpiece of this core for the next decade.

The Nationals have no reason to not pay Wood. Yes, James Wood is a Scott Boras client but that does not mean a deal cannot get done. Wood will have one more year of pre-arbitration before hitting arbitration. While many extensions this early in a player’s career are team friendly discounts, that doesn’t have to be the case.

The Nationals have zero financial commitments past this season. After this season, they are finally out of the Stephen Strasburg contract. The only other long term commitment that is on the books is Keibert Ruiz, who signed an 8 / $50M deal that will keep him in Washington through 2030. Still, Ruiz will never make more than $10M in any year of the deal. The Nationals have plenty of money to spend.

When thinking about an extension, this is not the same case as a Roman Anthony (9 / $130M) extension or a Jackson Merrill extension (10 / $156M). Wood has more time in the big leagues than those players did at the time they agreed to sign an extension.

A James Wood extension may mimic more of a Bobby Witt Jr. extension (7 / $148M) with multiple player / team options for big money attached to the deal. A lot of the big contracts that have been signed recently have player opt-outs in them. Players do not want to be completely locked into a deal for the rest of their career to a team that maybe they do not trust will be committed to winning.

If the Nationals want to keep a player like James Wood around, which they should, the Nationals cannot focus on trying to get a discount. Teams have to pay for superstars. James Wood has the potential to be a superstar in this game for a long time. There are zero reasons the Nationals do not lock up James Wood and make him the face of the franchise for the foreseeable future.

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The Good

Jarren Duran

Photo Credit: Paul Rutherford / Stringer / Getty Images

This week we saw some strong offensive performances. Jarren Duran went 11-28 this week with 4 home runs. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Red Sox offense is in its best stretch of the season and it’s leadoff hitter is red hot. As Jarren Duran goes, so does this Red Sox offense most of the time. Duran put together a solid month of May with a slash line of .261 / .331 / .548 with 9 home runs. If this offense wants to avoid being a bottom 5 lineup in the sport, it starts with Duran.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa

One of the surprises not only this week but over the last two weeks has been Isiah Kiner-Falefa. While at times I have questioned why he is even on this roster, IKF has been the Red Sox best hitter over the last two weeks. Over his last seven games, IFK is hitting .458 / .519 / .625 and over his last 15 games he is hitting .429 / .512 / .571. Nobody saw this turnaround coming but you have to give credit where credit is due. IKF has been fantastic and he deserves to be in the lineup every day until he cools off.

Caleb Durbin

Another pleasant surprise has been Caleb Durbin, who had a great series against the Guardians. Durbin had a few off days in a row earlier in the week. He made some swing adjustments and maybe more importantly some approach changes. Durbin was 4-13 with 2 doubles and a triple against Cleveland. What was great to see was Durbin using the entire field. All 3 of his extra base hits in the series came down the right field line, a spot in which he did not have a hit to all season prior to this series. The biggest issue with Durbin early in the season was the inability to stay away from hitting a ground ball to the left side of the infield. Over the last couple of days it appears like his plan is to deliberately hit the ball to the opposite field. Durbin was a big reason why the Red Sox were able to take a series against the Guardians.

The Bad

Play at Home

The home and road splits are beyond bizarre. One of the few things that the Red Sox can typically bank on is that they are going to score runs at Fenway Park and win more often than they lose at home. That has been the furthest thing from the truth in 2026. The Red Sox went 4-11 at Fenway Park in the month of May and were 9-3 on the road. It’s a staggering number and it’s one of the key reasons they are 8 games below .500 and in the basement of the AL East. Maybe the law of averages will even out and Boston will go on a run of great baseball at Fenway Park but the damage may be done already. The poor play at home (9-19) may be the biggest reason this team is not a contender come the Trade Deadline.

The Middle Relievers

The Red Sox had the #2 bullpen ERA with Zack Kelly and Tyler Samaniego. Then, Danny Coulombe returned from injury and the Red Sox chose to demote Kelly and call up Tyron Guerrero. Coulombe had a blowup early this week against the Braves and Guerrero has given up 4 runs in 5 innings. After Thursday’s loss, the bullpen ERA dropped all the way down to #9. The bullpen had a nice rebound in Cleveland, especially since Brayan Bello gave them 7 scoreless innings. However, guys like Coulombe, Guerrero, and Greg Weissert cannot be trusted in a big spot. With Slaten and Chapman only pitching late in games and no Garrett Whitlock right now, the options are extremely limited in the middle innings for Chad Tracy.

Panic or Patience?

The Red Sox PR Team

Photo Credit: Boston Globe / Contributor / Getty Images

The Red Sox PR Team may be the worst to ever do it. The organization chose to come out and say they hoped Roman Anthony’s IL stint would be the limited number of days. Now, he has been officially shut down again after feeling soreness in his finger taking swings off of the tee. Anthony hasn’t appeared in a game since May 4th and could miss up to 6-8 weeks with this nagging injury. At the same time, the organization said that Garrett Crochet’s shoulder injury was minor and that he should only spend the minimum number of days on the IL. That was on April 25th. Now, Crochet has been shut down because of an issue with his lat.

The Red Sox chose to create the narrative that their 2 best players would not miss a lot of time and that their injuries were minor. While you never know how a player responds with an injury, they chose to downplay the significance of the injuries. They could always use the phrase, “We are going to wait and see how the player responds to treatment” before putting expectations on players. The fact that the Red Sox and their medical team did this with their 2 most important players only puts the entire situation under a microscope. They are quickly learning that choices come with consequences. Panic.

Up Next

Boston returns home, where they only have one series win, to take on the Baltimore Orioles. It’s hard to fathom that we are in June and the Red Sox have one home series win. The Orioles are coming off of a week in which they took 5 out of 7 from the Rays and Blue Jays. To end the week, the Red Sox will travel to New York to take on the Yankees. I would love to hope that the Red Sox will return home and keep the momentum going from a big series win in Cleveland. However, that has not happened all season. It’s an important week as it kicks off a stretch where Boston plays 12 of their next 15 games against AL East teams. If there ever was a time to get back into the conversation in the division, it would be now.

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While Red Sox fans and baseball fans may not give one fly on the wall about European soccer, this is relevant. Liverpool’s manager Arnie Slot was in just his second season as the club’s manager. In his first season, he led the club to a Premier League title. Now just a calendar year later, he’s gone. Slot’s mismanagement of the club in year two pushed players away including their legendary winger Mohamed Salah. The team’s bad performance, especially over the last couple of months, turned the fan base against him.

Photo Credit: Peter Byrne - PA Images / Contributor / Getty Images

The decision to fire Slot feels a lot like when FSG moved on from President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski less than a year removed from the 2018 World Series title. FSG has shown a willingness to move on from from their coaches and front office members when they feel like they have lost the fan base.

FSG needed to focus on Liverpool’s managerial position because the transfer period, which is soccer’s version of free agency, opens on June 15th. Getting a new manager in place to formulate a plan for the transfer period and the 2026-2027 season was a priority.

As a Red Sox fan, I don’t understand why a massive conglomerate why Fenway Sports Group cannot manage both Liverpool F.C. and the Red Sox effectively at the same time. However, when you see a guy like Sam Kennedy as one of the top executives of the Boston Red Sox look completely incapable of helping lead this organization, it explains a lot.

Now that FSG has moved on from Slot and a new manager is soon to be appointed, I expect FSG to turn the majority of their attention to the Boston Red Sox. This team has been one of the most disappointing teams this season as they are 10 games below .500 for the first time since the truncated 2020 Covid season. This is Craig Breslow’s team and he is the only person left to be held responsible for the unacceptable performance of this year’s team.

Photo Credit: Boston Globe / Contributor / Getty Images

While Breslow has not even held his position for three full calendar years, that likely won’t matter. If Red Sox fans take anything away from the sacking of Liverpool manager Arnie Slot, it’s that the length of tenure doesn’t matter. If FSG deems that the fan base has completely turned on them and the organization is heading in the wrong direction (which nobody can really argue they are not), Breslow could easily be on the hot seat.

While I am not saying that a decision on Breslow’s future with the organization is imminent, I expect FSG to evaluate Breslow’s tenure and future over the next couple of weeks. Whether they decide to give him the deadline or not, the next couple of weeks will be interesting to follow regarding Breslow’s future and the future of the Boston Red Sox.

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The cap system that MLB wants to move to would start in 2027. The cap would be set at $245.3M and the floor would be set at $171.2M. Where I really take issue with this proposal is the starting number for the cap. This season the first luxury tax threshold is set at $244M. While teams can choose to go over that number, the first tax threshold has acted like a cap because teams can spend up to that number without financial and draft penalties.

For MLB to offer a cap that is just $1.3M over this season’s luxury tax threshold doesn’t feel like a serious offer. While a luxury tax threshold and a hard cap are not the same thing, it feels like the maximum dollar amount that teams can spend should be higher than their initial proposal. I understand it’s not the same system, but when the last CBA was negotiated, the first luxury tax threshold in year 1 of the deal went from $210M to $230M.

While the players have already come out with a statement on their disapproval of a cap system in general, I struggle to see how this initial proposal would even work.

According to Evan Drellich of the Athletic, their are 8 teams that would need to cut their payroll by a combined $578M. According to Jesse Rogers of ESPN, an agreement from the players on a cap system would open up the possibility of phasing in the cap because many teams are already committed to a lot of money for 2027.

Even if there is a phasing in of the cap, those 8 teams are likely not going to be able to add payroll this off-season. That’s 26.6% of the league where free agents may not be able to sign with this winter. Obviously, more will be released as the negotiations pick up, but it’s hard to picture how a completely new system would be put into place with prior commitments.

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While MLB is pointing to a lack of competitive balance under the current system, spending money doesn’t necessarily guarantee winning follows. However, last season 5 of the 6 highest payroll teams made the playoffs and the team that spent the most money (The Dodgers) won the World Series for the second consecutive season. While I believe a salary cap and floor doesn’t necessarily guarantee a competitive balance across the league, it does feel like the teams who are currently at the bottom of the league in spending would have a better chance at competing than they currently do.

The 2027 CBA negotiations are expected to be rough. That was known the minute the last deal was signed. The two proposals only confirmed what we already knew to be true. This off-season will be a stressful, frustrating, yet eventful one to follow. Prior to the last lockout, there were a flurry of deals that were signed because of the uncertainty of the new CBA. I don’t think that will be the case this time around. I do not expect a lot of movement before the CBA runs out on December 1st. I doubt owners will want to make any big financial commitments before they know what system they will be operating under.

I’m sure most fans would say they would want a fair deal to occur but ultimately the fans don’t really care about this stuff. Fans want games to start at the end of March and a new 2027 season. I am not confident fans will get what they want this time around. We are about to watch one of the most fascinating games of chicken the sports world has ever seen. I have no clue who will be blink first.

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Below is the main proposal from the MLBPA.

While reading through this proposal, it seems like there could be a common ground between MLB and MLBPA on these main components. However, there won’t be a common ground because MLB is focusing on something completely different (We will get to this later).

One of the big things that stands out is the team control over players shrinking from 6 years to 5. I like this idea a lot, however I imagine the owners do not. Here’s why. Players’ salaries have ballooned over the last decade and the game’s top players are signing these insanely long deals of 10-13 years. I do not think deals of this length are good for the game because paying players an extremely high AAV into their late 30s and early 40s can cripple teams when they finally reach the end of these deals. Think about the last 3-4 years of the Albert Pujols deal.

If players can reach free agency sooner, maybe they would not take 1 massive deal but try to capitalize on two shorter deals (4-5 years) at a higher AAV. There’s always a possibility that players will always elect for guaranteed financial security and take a really long deal, but maybe they will look at capitalizing on being paid at the top of the market twice rather than once.

Another reason why I like it is free agency is not nearly as exciting as it used to be. If you look at the upcoming free agency class, it’s not exciting. A big reason for that is teams are locking up their young players before they are established to get them at a below market value. Teams take on a lot of risk but if the player becomes the player the organization believes he can become, it’s a massive discount (Think Ronald Acuna Jr.). If players could hit free agency a year earlier, maybe they wouldn’t be so willing to take a contract immediately upon arrival to the show and wait to be paid at a much higher AAV. In theory, this would help add more stars to the free agency pool.

Another key proposal item that I like is the integrity tax that penalizes teams for not meeting a minimum payroll benchmark. For far too long, too many teams have been unwilling to spend their money and are truly not trying to win. There are 7 teams (23.3% of the league) that have spent less than $100M this season.

According to Fangraphs Roster Resource

When there are 6 teams with a payroll of $250M+, the top spenders and the bottom spenders are not operating on the same playing field. While I am willing to listen on a salary cap, there needs to be a salary floor in this league. Maybe a floor pushes some owners out but it would create a more competitive game.

MLB’s Proposal

Major League Baseball’s proposal is expected to come out tomorrow but what they are going to be asking for is already well known. The Athletic’s Evan Drellich wrote a great story about the owners’ motives entering this CBA. The owners will push for a salary cap and a salary floor that mimics the NFL, NBA, and NHL. Their motives are completely motivated by money. They see the other sports franchises that operate in a system with a salary cap growing at a much high rate than MLB franchises who operate without a salary cap. Here is a quote from Evan Drellich’s piece as the owners are looking at the average franchise worth of other sports compared to the $2.9 billion of an MLB franchise.

When you see data like that, it’s hard to argue against it. While I am not trying to sympathize with millionaire and billionaire owners, there really isn’t a reason why they are not growing at a similar financial rate. The system in which they operate in appears to hinder them. The other big argument is the selling value. MLB franchises tend to sell 6 or 7 times its annual gross revenue whereas NBA and NFL franchises sell for about 12 times its annual gross revenue value. The owners are looking at those numbers, especially the Washington Nationals sale, and want change.

Concern for the Negotiations

I think it’s impossible to not feel worried about the upcoming CBA negotiations. The two sides will be arguing for two completely different systems. If one side is going to win, the other side is going to cave. Which side caves first will be interesting to see. How far both sides are willing to go will also be interesting. The game has so much momentum right now that a work stoppage that includes games being missed will undoubtedly have negatives effects on the sport.

The upcoming CBA negotiations will be something we cover here at BPB. Hopefully we are not covering a lengthy lockout but we are prepared for a dark winter that bleeds into the spring.

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Question Answered

Solid Defensively

So far in his young big league career, Mayer’s best skill has been his glove. Whether it’s been at third or second, Mayer looks like a natural with a really strong arm. Despite never playing second before, Mayer adapted quickly with 2 DRS and 3 OAA. With the injury to Trevor Story, Mayer now gets an opportunity to play the position he was drafted to play. While there may be some growing pains at a more demanding position, Mayer’s smooth fielding suggests he will be able to handle the position at the big league level.

Questions to be Answered

Durability

One thing Mayer has dealt with throughout his minor league career are injuries. He dealt with multiple ailments that caused him to miss time that took away from his development. The most games in a minor league season that Mayer has played in was 91 back in 2022. Last season Mayer went down with a wrist injury that cost him the final 2 months of the season.

Photo Credit: Adam Glanzman / Stringer / Getty Images

Mayer has already surpassed last year’s game total but his durability will be something to watch all season long. As we get into the Dog Days of August, Mayer needs to show the organization that he can be counted on to be in the lineup every day.

The Hit Tool

Right now, this is a big concern. Mayer is hitting just .211 / .274 / .296 in 48 games. Recently, Mayer is in a big slump going 6 for his last 45 with not a lot of hard contact. If you look at his statistics through the calendar year, it’s a lot of the same.

91 G: .221 / .275 / .348 / 6 HR / 24.3% K / 6.5% BB

A cause of Marcelo’s early offensive struggles in his career is the fact that he is still developing at the big league level. Because of all of the injuries he dealt with in the minors, he missed a lot of time and a lot of ABs. Now, he is facing the best stuff he has ever seen and he has not made the adjustments yet. One of the biggest struggles for Mayer has been against off-speed pitches. Coming into play on Tuesday night, he’s hit just .057 with a 41.1% Whiff rate. It’s a noticeable struggle and it’s something he has to adjust against or he will only see more off-speed pitches.

What I want to see

With Mayer now getting an opportunity to play at short, he should be there every night. He should also be getting every AB possible. The Red Sox should not be pinch hitting because a lefty is on the mound like they did Tuesday night. It does not benefit the future of this organization for guys like Andruw Monasterio or Isiah Kiner-Falefa to take ABs away from Mayer.

Hopefully, Mayer can begin to figure things out. It would be difficult to see things get so bad that a demotion back to Triple-A is necessary. Marcelo Mayer is a big part of the future of this organization. Figuring out the hit tool along with staying healthy is what you want to see from the 23-year old shortstop for the remainder of 2026.

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There are two conversations surrounding this team right now. The first conversation is that the Red Sox are apparently really trying to acquire a right-handed bat. According to the Athletic’s Jenn McCaffrey, Boston wants to trade for a bat that plays any position. It’s well documented just how bad this Red Sox lineup is and if they want to try to turn things around, they need another bat. The second conversation was started Saturday evening by Boston Globe writer Pete Abraham that the Red Sox should move to become sellers.

With few sellers on the market, the Red Sox could become the team that buyers come calling to because the Red Sox have some impact assets. With any trade, there is one question that must be asked. Is Craig Breslow going to be the guy calling the shots moving forward?

If Craig Breslow is not the guy to lead this organization, then a move should happen now. Breslow should not be making decisions on adding an impact bat by trading major assets from within the farm system if he will be let go at the end of the season. He also should not be trading away the team’s tradable assets for prospects and other pieces that will impact future Red Sox teams. If a move will be made, it should happen now so they can try and find a replacement and give that person some time to get to know the organization before the Trade Deadline.

It feels like this would be an obvious and logical decision however that is not how FSG as operated in the past. FSG fired Dave Dombrowski on September 9th back in 2019. That means that Dombrowski was allowed to execute the Trade Deadline that season and then he was gone in a little over a month. The same thing happened with his predecessor. Chaim Bloom was fired on September 14th, 2023. That means that Bloom was able to execute the 2023 Trade Deadline and then he was gone in a little over a month.

FSG cannot follow that same pattern with Craig Breslow if they decide to move on from him. If they still believe in his vision for the organization, then the above scenario doesn’t apply. But if Breslow is on the hot seat, giving him the keys to important trades is dangerous.

Photo Credit: Paul Rutherford / Contributor / Getty Images

Here at BPB (Ballpark Buzz), we have been hesitant to jump on the Breslow fire train because the last search did not go as the Red Sox had planned. Breslow was not a top choice by FSG. With the Red Sox POB / CBO position lasting as long as someone being President of the United States for one term, it makes me nervous that nobody would want to even interview for the job because there is zero job security. If you come in and struggle in the first 2-3 years, you’re on the hot seat. While I understand the frustration from fans (I’m frustrated), it takes longer than 2-3 years for someone to come in and completely set up their vision within an organization.

Since the start of the 2011 season, there have been 5 different people calling the shots for the Boston Red Sox. While FSG can say whatever they want to candidates to try and convince them to take the job, eventually the trend says you’re lying.

While the product on the field remains unacceptable, is a move the right decision? If FSG sticks with Breslow, I will be nervous. There are too many bad decisions for me to feel confident that Breslow can make the right decisions to get this organization back on track. If FSG moves on from Breslow, I will be nervous. Who could they get either in the middle of the season or at the end of the season that actually wants this messy situation?

It’s an odd time to be a Red Sox fan.

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The story all season at home has been the inability to score runs. The Red Sox are last in home runs (11), 29th in runs, and last in wRC+ in 24 home games. Everybody is wondering where this team would be if they could just have a league average offense at home. So when Boston was leading 6-3 on Friday night, it felt like maybe, just maybe, they had turned a corner. Maybe they were going to use that 3-game series sweep of the Royals and carry that momentum into the weekend series against a bad Twins team. The Red Sox were 20-8 in games in which they scored at least 3 runs. But then the 7th inning happened shattering all momentum.

Photo Credit: Brian Fluharty / Stringer / Getty Images

The Red Sox bullpen has been one of the strengths of this bad Red Sox team to start 2026. Boston’s bullpen entered play Friday night with the second best ERA in baseball (2.98) and a 1.88 ERA in the month of May. Justin Slaten entered the game pitching well having not given up a run in five straight outings since being activated from the IL. However, there was a different Slaten Friday night. His stuff was a down a few mph and the location was just not there. Slaten gave up two 2-run home runs and the Red Sox saw their 6-3 lead turn to a 7-6 deficit.

The Boston bullpen has been so dominant over the last couple of weeks that it is hard to fault them. Eventually there will be a bad outing mixed in with all of the great outings. The frustrating part about Friday night was that the Red Sox offense still had nine outs left. In Fenway Park, nine outs can feel like an eternity.

In the final three innings, Boston hitters went 0-10 with two walks, one batter reach via an error, and another reached via a wild pitch. The Twins run prevention group was doing everything they could to give the Red Sox a chance to tie the game. But the Boston bats never took advantage.

The weird thing about Friday night’s loss is that it never felt like the Boston bats were really threatening to tie the game despite only trailing by one run in the 7th and 8th inning. In a game in which they scored the most runs they have scored at Fenway Park since Marathon Monday (April 20th), it felt like a rally was not going to happen.

The Boston bats could not even get a hit off of any of the Minnesota’s relievers. Fenway Park has long been a ballpark that gets crazy in the last couple of innings. Right now it feels like the opposing teams are comfortable closing out games at Fenway.

The bad ending to Friday night’s loss rolled into Saturday. The offense was once again nonexistent for the majority of the game. They struck out 11 times including Jarren Duran’s strikeout to end the game with the bases loaded. Boston only managed to get five hits for the entire game, something that we have seen a lot of in recent weeks.

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Even when the Red Sox did something well offensively on Saturday, they still managed to mess it up. Ceddanne Rafaela had a beautiful double to drive in a run. However, third base coach Chad Epperson sent Willson Contreras home and he was out by several feet. The inability to consistently score runs has this team making desperate decisions to score. This offense cannot afford to give up any outs on the base paths.

Despite being seven games below .500, the Red Sox continue to find themselves just 2.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot. If the Red Sox had just three more home wins for an 11-13 record, their overall record would be 25-26, and they would have sole possession of the Final Wild Card spot.

While it’s unlikely the Red Sox will play .333 baseball at home all season, I’m not sure the law of averages will actually even out this season. This roster was not constructed to take advantage of Fenway Park offensively.

Fenway Park is supposed to be one of baseball’s biggest home field advantages but it’s been the opposite of that to start 2026. This series loss is just another example that this Red Sox team isn’t consistent enough to win games. The Red Sox once again wasted that momentum they gained in Kansas City. Now, they have to hope to avoid a sweep.

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The book on Ceddanne Rafaela when he entered the league was an elite defender but a hitter who does not understand the strike zone. Over his first two full big league seasons, you could tell that Ceddanne was not comfortable taking pitches and would swing at the first good pitch he saw. That was reflected in one of the highest O-Swing percentages in the sport (swings on pitches outside the zone) and one of the highest overall swing percentages in the sport. While Ceddanne had stretches where he would get hot and help carry the offense, the inability to lay off pitches outside the zone consistently caused him to be inconsistent. This year Ceddanne has continued to get better and the numbers are impressive.

Rafaela has been one of the few bright spots in the Red Sox lineup and the progress is exactly what you would hope to see him make from year to year. For someone who is elite defensively in center field to be a league average bat is extremely valuable. If Rafaela can continue to be 10-20% better than league average with the elite defense, we are talking about an All-Star caliber player.

When you watch Rafaela in the batter’s box, the swing decisions continue to improve. He has improved his O-Swing percentage and he is swinging significantly less.

The swing decision improvements are leading to Rafaela increasing his batting average by almost 40 points and increasing his OBP by almost 60 points. It’s a great sign that his walk rate continues to rise (5.8%). These are the signs you want to see from a player in his age 25 season.

With so many players struggling in the Boston lineup, it’s hard to imagine where they would be without Rafaela’s strong start to 2026. With Rafaela improving in every major offensive category in each of the last three seasons, it’s interesting to think about what his ceiling is as a player. Rafaela could be on his way to a 5-6 WIN season (1.8 bWAR already). His numbers through the first two months of the 2026 season rank high among all center fielders in baseball.

AVG: 3rd

OBP: 2nd

SLG: 7th

wRC+ (5th)

fWAR: 6th

Ceddanne Rafaela signed an 8 / $50M extension back in 2024. That extension is looking like a steal right now. Rafaela is quickly turning into one of the better center fielders in all of baseball and it’s time the baseball community starts to recognize him.

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Injuries have really impacted this Detroit team. Their list is quite long and full of potential impact players.

While this stretch of baseball is really challenging their depth, they have to find a way to turn things around if they want to make Skubal’s return mean something. In this brutal 14 game stretch, they are not doing anything well.

Runs: 29th

wRC+: 28th (71)

ERA: 21st (4.57)

Tarik Skubal is out recovering from removing lose bodies in his elbow. They are saying that a six week recovery is possible and it may be possible since he is already playing catch a week removed from surgery. His return will likely be sometime in the middle or end of June. That means that Skubal should be fully healthy for the most important stretch of the season.

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For the Tigers, this bad stretch of baseball may cost them Skubal’s final guaranteed year in Detroit. With Skubal’s impending free agency at the end of the season, the Tigers front office will have a difficult decision to make. Things would be very different if they had one of the best records in the American League. But they don’t.

Being nine games under .500 and trailing so many teams in the Wild Card (albeit only 3.5 games) means they have about nine weeks to turn things around. If the Tigers are hovering around .500 or trailing by multiple games in the Wild Card race come the Trade Deadline, the Tigers front office will have to decide if they want to roll the dice and try to catch fire and sneak into the playoffs or the Tigers could trade Skubal for a strong package of players and prospects. A trade of Skubal would allow the Tigers to continue to build their organization for the future.

Every game they drop further from .500 makes the decision easier for the Detroit front office. There’s no way they want to trade away the game’s best pitcher. However, they cannot lose sight of the bigger picture in Detroit. If the team continues to free fall, the only decision will be to trade Skubal.

Luckily for the Tigers, they have a softer part of their schedule coming up to finish the month of May. Here are their next three series including the remaining two games against the Guardians.

2 vs Guardians

3 @ Orioles

3 vs Angels

3 @ White Sox

A strong two weeks and the Tigers can be right back in the mix of not only the AL Wild Card picture but the AL Central. A bad American League could be the reason the Tigers remain in the mix and potentially are able to hang on to Skubal for a stretch run.

Nobody envies the position the Detroit front office is in over the next couple of months. However, their decision could have massive implications for the future of their organization. And it could have massive implications for the state of the 2026 season. Returning to winning should keep Skubal in Detroit for a few extra months.

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The Good

The Starting Pitching

This week the Red Sox got 5 terrific pitching performances and they only won 2 of those games.

Bello: 6.1 IP / 1 ER

Gray: 6 IP / 1 ER

Suarez: 5.1 IP / 0 ER

Early: 5 IP / 2 ER

Tolle: 8 IP / 2 ER

The Red Sox rotation minus Brayan Bello has really picked things up. After a rough first two weeks, they have been one of the better units in baseball over the last month. They are doing everything in their power to keep the Red Sox in games. However, they have to be nearly perfect throughout their outings because the Boston lineup cannot score.

The big takeaway from what was a dreadful week was the dominance of Payton Tolle and Connelly Early continuing to pitch well. Both of these rookies have gone from fighting for a rotation spot to being firmly in the rotation likely forcing Brayan Bello out once Garrett Crochet returns from the IL.

Photo Credit: Kevin D. Liles/Atlanta Braves / Contributor / Getty Images

Payton Tolle looks like a completely different pitcher from the one that debuted late last season. While he still has an explosive fastball, he has adapted the new pitching philosophy of having multiple fastballs as his 4-Seam fastball, sinker, and cutter accounted for 85% of his arsenal on Saturday night against the Braves. Those three pitches generated a lot of weak contact. While the curveball is an improved pitch this season, Tolle did not need it against the second best offense in baseball.

While 2026 continues to feel like a lost season, the development of Tolle and Early is huge for the future of this core. If the rookies can continue to show that they are capable big league starters, the Red Sox will have an impressive group of 4 starters in Garrett Crochet, Ranger Suarez, Payton Tolle, and Connelly Early for the next couple of seasons.

The Bad

The Offense

This is the worst Red Sox offense I have ever seen. They failed to score more than 3 runs all week and they haven’t done so since May 7th. There were very few rallies all week. If this team does not hit home runs, which they struggle to do (fewest in the AL), they cannot score.

An account on Twitter called Red Sox Stats found this amazing and shocking statistic of how the Boston bats were unable to work counts and draw walks this week.

When guys are struggling to get hits, working walks is a necessity. Right now it feels like opposing pitchers are just not afraid of anyone in this lineup. Early this week we saw Zack Wheeler throw 16 pitches in 3 innings. With the lack of power, there is no reason for pitchers to pitch carefully to them. And the majority of pitchers have been in full attack mode against this lineup.

While Red Sox fans are finally seeing some small changes, Nick Sogard started Sunday instead of Caleb Durbin, the Red Sox still have 3 of the worst OPS productions in the sport in Jarren Duran, Caleb Durbin, and Trevor Story. There aren’t obvious trade options that could help this group. Unfortunately, this offense either figures it out on its own or we see a historically bad season from the Boston bats.

Could It Be?

Is it possible that we have witnessed the last game in which Trevor Story starts at shortstop for the Boston Red Sox? With Story seeking additional opinions on his sports hernia, if he needs surgery he will likely be out 6-10 weeks. If things are still not going well for this team and Marcelo Mayer has settled in nicely defensively at short, there will be no reason to move Mayer off of short. Story is only under contract for one more season after 2026. With him already showing signs of decreased range and arm strength, there is not a single reason to put him back at short when Mayer is a better option. Marcelo Mayer was drafted as the organization’s future shortstop. Story’s injury opens the door for that to happen. The Red Sox will wait to see what Story ultimately decides to do but Mayer did say on Sunday that he has talked with Chad Tracy about taking reps at short.

Up Next

After what was a really tough stretch of baseball, Boston now has a great opportunity this week to win two series. The Red Sox first travel to Kansas City to take on the 20-27 Royals. They are not a good baseball team and if Boston wants to turn their season around, it has to start in Kansas City. After a 3-game series against the Royals, Boston returns to Fenway Park to take on the Twins. These are two bad teams. Will Boston show that they are worse than two of the worst teams in the AL or will they fight and start to turn things around? My expectations are extremely low but I’m always open to being pleasantly surprised.

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Last season the Franklin Arias buzz was growing as many loved his hit tool. This year the hit tool has not only looked better but the power has changed the outlook on Arias. Coming into Sunday, Arias is hitting .349 with a .642 slugging percentage with 8 home runs. The 8 home runs matches his entire 2025 total in about 1/4 of the games played. Arias has done this while maintaining a low K-rate (12.2%) and improving his plate discipline (9.2% BB Rate).

While many prospect sites give Arias a 60 on the hit tool, the power was graded much lower (40). If the newfound power is real, he has the chance to be a star in this game.

With prospects, caution is needed. Not every prospect pans out and there is no way of predicting which will be successful and which ones will fail. It also can take time before players start to perform like the projections. The Red Sox are experiencing that currently as there have been ups and downs with Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Kristian Campbell.

Obviously, if the right trade scenario presents itself, Arias should not be viewed as an untouchable. It’s quite obvious that the current Red Sox lack star power. If Arias can be used in a package to acquire a legitimate star to add to the young Boston core, then the Red Sox should consider it. However, the fact that Arias has a chance to be an every day shortstop when that may be hard to find is something worth considering.

Right now the Red Sox have Trevor Story at short. Story looks like an aging shortstop lacking the necessary range and arm strength. He also is struggling mightily at the plate (57 OPS+). With Story potentially missing a lot of time with his hernia injury, it may open the door to moving him off of short this year. It’s hard to imagine Story being the team’s regular shortstop going into next season despite still having 1 / $25M left on his big deal he signed way back in 2021.

The obvious choice to take over for Story at short would be Marcelo Mayer, who is a natural shortstop but is currently playing second base because Story is still on the roster. Mayer is a smooth fielder who likely could handle the position defensively. However, Mayer has to prove he can stay healthy for a full season because the most games he has played in the minors is 91 games. He also has to show he can hit at the big league level (84 OPS+).

If it is not Mayer, it won’t be an upcoming free agent. The best available shortstop this winter will be 31-year-old Ha-Seong-Kim and 31-year-old J.P. Crawford. Neither of those players should be considered because at this stage in their careers they are not impact players.

The Red Sox could explore the trade market to acquire a long term shortstop. Two of the names that will be discussed as the Trade Deadline approaches is C.J. Abrams and Zach Neto. Abrams will be 26 in a few months and is having a breakout season in Washington with a 161 OPS+. However, Abrams is likely not a shortstop moving forward as he ranks in the 1st percentile in OAA (-6). For Neto, it’s a combination of power and really good defense. The concern with Neto is his 30.4% K-rate. With Abrams having two years of team control past ‘26 and Neto three years of team control, the price will be steep. The Red Sox will likely have to deal from their strong pitching infrastructure and potentially a prospect like Arias to get a deal done.

When you start to look at the landscape of the position within the Boston organization and around the league, the options are limited. Right now it’s either Marcelo Mayer or an expensive trade. While the Red Sox should not bank on a 20-year-old prospect to be their future shortstop, keeping him in the organization should be a priority. The one thing Craig Breslow has been able to do in his tenure with the Red Sox is develop pitching. The Red Sox should be trading from that surplus rather than trading from their position group that is not nearly as strong.

Franklin Arias could be the answer for this team at shortstop as early as sometime next season. If things work out with Mayer at shortstop, Arias could always move to second. With a strong hit tool and emerging power, I would be extremely hesitant to move Arias in any deals over the next calendar year. Impact shortstops are difficult to find in today’s game and Arias has the potential to be just that.

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The 2026 San Francisco Giants have Buster Posey’s handprint all over it. After a few off-seasons where the Giants struck out with big free agents such as Arson Judge (I couldn’t resist) and Carlos Correa, Buster Posey replaced Farhan Zaidi as President of Baseball Operations and quickly built a roster in which he thought could be a contender.

When Posey took over, the Giants had three big financial commitments.

Robbie Ray: 2 / $50M

Jung Hoo Lee: 5 / $105M

Matt Chapman: 6 / $151M

Now, why the Giants ownership group let Farhan Zaidi negotiate an extension to the magnitude of Chapman’s and then three weeks later fire Zaidi is beyond anything that I can comprehend. Clearly there was a fear that if Chapman were to hit free agency he would likely not return to the Giants. However, who knows if Chapman would have been a top choice for Buster Posey.

Early in Posey’s first off-season, he signed his shortstop of the future in Willy Adames to a massive deal. Adames signed for 7 / $182M. Then Posey made a wild trade with the Red Sox to acquire Rafael Devers. Posey agreed to take on a little more than $250M of Devers’ remaining salary while also giving up their #1 prospect from 2024 (Kyle Harrison) and their #4 prospect from 2025 (James Tibbs).

While many applauded Posey for finally bringing in some star power, he tied up a ton of money into a bunch of players in their 30s. Posey put all of his eggs into a basket that was full of strikeouts. Chapman, Devers, and Adames have always been high strikeout players.

Adames: 25.1% K-rate in his last season with Milwaukee

Devers: 24.5% K-rate in his last season with Boston

Chapman: 24.4% K-rate in his 1-year deal with SF before his big extension

Photo Credit: Thearon W. Henderson / Stringer / Getty Images

One thing that a lot of research shows is that players who chase and strike out a lot do not age well. And Buster Posey chose to build the heart of his lineup around aging players who swing and miss a lot.

The Giants offense has been absolutely horrendous. Entering play Tuesday night, they are tied for the worst scoring offense in baseball, hit the second fewest home runs in the sport, and have the second worst OPS in baseball. A big reason why the offense has been so bad is their big money players have been terrible.

Adames: .215 / .247 / .344 / .591 / 69 OPS+ / 29.4% K

Devers: .240 / .292 / .390 / .681 / 96 OPS+ / 29.2% K

Chapman: .229 / .310 / .314 / .624 / 82 OPS+ / 23.4% K

The question I have is if you are a Giants fan, do you really want Buster Posey being the guy to hit the reset button for this franchise. It’s concerning that less than a year since the Giants acquired Rafael Devers that they would be actively trying to get out of his contract. Posey and the Giants can’t use the excuse that Devers isn’t the leader they had hoped or they are unhappy with his work ethic. All of that was revealed at the end of his tenure with Boston. I think it is far too early to give up on the Devers experiment despite how ugly it has been.

In order to get out of any of the big contracts that are on the roster, the Giants will likely have to eat money. To get out of the Devers, Chapman, or Adames deals, they would have to eat considerable money if they wanted anything of value in return. A move like this feels like it would send the Giants back a few years. This is an organization that hasn’t won a playoff series since they won the World Series in 2014.

The Giants only had the 14th ranked farm system coming into 2026 according to Baseball America after four straight seasons of missing the playoffs.

Developing prospects and building up the farm should be the focus of this organization for the next 12 months. However, if the team trades away their most talented players for mid level prospects, that doesn’t instill a lot of confidence that Posey will be able to turn this around quickly. This Giants organization needs some impact prospects and it needs them fast.

This situation with Posey in San Francisco is tricky. Posey is a legend in the Giants organization and he hasn’t even had the job for two seasons. But the decisions he has made as the main shot caller have been big misses and the window that appeared to be opening when he took over appears to be closed. The stars that he chose to build around are only getting older and their best years are likely behind them.

The question surrounding Posey is what is your confidence level that he is the guy to turn this ship around. If the confidence level is low, and I can’t imagine it’s anything but low, I’m not sure how anyone can justify giving him another chance to spend big money.

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With a 3-3 week, the Red Sox are no closer to .500 than they were last Sunday. Let’s break down the good and the bad.

The Good

The Running Red Sox

Everybody wanted to see what would be different between the Alex Cora led Red Sox and the Chad Tracy led Red Sox. One big difference is Tracy clearly wants the Red Sox to push the envelope on the base paths. The Red Sox have 16 stolen bases in 13 games under Tracy, which ranks second in baseball since Tracy took over as manager. The Red Sox only had 16 stolen bases in the 27 games managed by Alex Cora. The offense is struggling to consistently create rallies with multiple hits in an inning. Stealing bases allows the Boston offensive attack to get runners into scoring position without multiple hits.

One thing that we have seen in the past is Jarren Duran get off to a hot start stealing bases and then it tapers off as the season goes on. In the past there was concern that the stealing would fatigue a guy like Duran over 162. With the surplus of outfielders in the Boston outfield, that should not be the thought process now. The Red Sox should be stealing all the time and if a guy like Duran needs a day off, then give him one.

Elite Defense

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The Red Sox were built on run prevention and despite a rough week or two to start the season, the Boston defense has really been strong. Coming into play on Sunday, they led baseball with 32 defensive runs saved, which was 7 more than the Dodgers in second. Willson Contreras is tied for the lead at first base with 4 DRS. Caleb Durbin is second among third baseman with 6. Wilyer Abreu, Roman Anthony, and Jarren Duran are all in the top 13 among outfielders. It’s a welcome sight after a bunch of subpar defensive seasons.

The Bad

The Offense Really Hasn’t Changed

Coming into Sunday, there really isn’t a difference in what the Red Sox hitters are producing since the coaching changes.

With Chad Tracy: .237 / .318 / .352 / 22.2% K / 9% BB

With Alex Cora: .233 / .313 / .354 / 22.5% K / 8.8 BB

You can look deeper at the numbers and see that since the coaching change the zone contact numbers are better and they aren’t swinging and missing as much. However, eventually the results are the results. It’s still roughly the same group of players and it’s a group that struggles to consistently score. It’s a young group so the hope is that their young hitters gain confidence and begin to figure things out. But for those who thought that former hitting coach Pete Fatse was the problem, that just isn’t true.

Another huge issue with this offense right now is their inability to score at home. They rank 29th in runs scored at home, which is hard to fathom when they play at Fenway Park. They have only hit 9 home runs in 18 games.

This roster is not built in a way to take advantage of the hitter friendly ballpark in Fenway Park. It’s a big reason why they are 7-12 at home.

Bullpen Arms that Don’t Belong

It’s tough to really knock the Boston bullpen because the unit has the sixth best ERA in baseball. However, there are few pitchers in the group that do not belong in this group based on their performance. The first guy who should be sent down is Greg Weissert. While Weissert was solid last year, this year he has struggled to keep the ball in the ballpark (2.5 HR/9) and he is terrible at stranding runners. Sending Weissert down isn’t a death sentence. Let him figure things out and when someone goes down, bring him back up.

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The other name that doesn’t belong is Ryan Watson. The Rule-5 pick is just not cutting it out of the bullpen. He doesn’t have swing and miss stuff (6.5 K/9) and he allows too many base runners (1.64 WHIP). Watson has a 6.46 ERA in 15 games. While removing him from the big league roster will send him back to the Giants based on how the Rule-5 draft works, it’s clear that he is not a big league caliber arm right now. And the Red Sox cannot afford to waste a roster spot letting someone continue to develop at the big league level. Not every Rule-5 pick will turn out to be Garrett Whitlock or Justin Slaten.

Panic or Patience

Trevor Story

Didn’t we do this last May? It’s Déjà vu all over again in a bad way. Trevor Story is hitting just .200 with a .520 OPS. We are well past the “It’s early” conversation. Story is just not getting it done. The swing decisions are terrible (48% O-Swing%). The contact is just not what it was compared to last season (EV down 2 mph, maxEV down 2 mph). Yes, Story was awful last May (19 OPS+) and rebounded to still hit 25 home runs and drive in 96 runs. However, just because it happened last year does not mean the Red Sox should bank on it again. At age 33, maybe Story has lost a step. Panic

Up Next

The Red Sox have a tough week ahead of them as they will take on two NL East opponents. First, they will take on the underachieving Philadelphia Phillies. While the Phillies may have a bad record, they have played better since they fired Rob Thomson. The Phillies have won 7 of their last 10 games. Luckily, Boston will miss Cristopher Sanchez, who pitched in Sunday’s game. After the Phillies series, the Red Sox will travel to Atlanta to take on baseball’s best team. I don’t love the idea of Boston playing a desperate team and a hot team in the same week.

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The rise of Connelly Early has been fun to watch. He went from a prospect that most fans didn’t know to pitching the most important game of the season in the Wild Card series last October. Red Sox fans got a glimpse of what Early could do last September when he made four starts and had a 2.33 ERA in 19 innings. Early was elite at missing bats in his few starts as he had a 13.50 K/9. The one aspect of Early’s game that was concerning was the dip in velocity as he got deeper into the game.

As I went through each of Early’s four starts, it was consistent that his velocity was strong in the first 3-4 innings and then it lost 1-3 mph.

In Early’s three starts in which he pitched into the fifth and sixth inning, his fastball velocity topped out at 93 mph. That changes how a hitter reacts to the rest of the arsenal compared to when Early is able to hit 95 and 96. In Early’s third start, Early sat consistently between 92-94 in his four innings of work and he only touched 95 one time. Start 3 was the only start in which Early threw on four days rest. Every other start he had at least five days of rest, which is more in line with how minor league pitchers are used to pitching.

If Early was to maintain his velocity throughout a start and be able to do it on 4-days rest, he would have to build his body up in the off-season. And that is exactly what he did. According to the reports that came out of Spring Training, Early put on between 15-20 pounds of muscle. The results suggest that his body is more equipped to handle a big league starter’s workload.

In a start on 4/26 against the Orioles and a start on Friday night against the Rays, Early got outs in the 7th inning in both starts. And in both starts, his velocity not only was maintained but he added an extra 1-2 mph in the final couple of innings.

It’s possible that Connelly Early has changed his style. Instead of a more max effort approach in the early innings, Early may be saving some of his energy for the later innings. Regardless, Early is throwing more pitches, working deeper into games, and the velocity is there.

The intriguing part about Early’s game is that his pitching style is not built on velocity. Early changes speeds and locates his six pitches in various counts. If Early is able to throw 95-96 in the sixth or seventh inning, it creates a real challenge for opposing hitters with such a wide arsenal.

While Early’s repertoire will need to be monitored closely because 2026 is still his first full season pitching on 4-days rest. However, the improved endurance from Early is how he goes from a projected mid rotation starter to potentially a front of the rotation starter. The Red Sox have an intriguing arm in Connelly Early.

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As I started to follow this over the past week, I began thinking that one of two things could have happened with Tatis Jr.

1. Steroids clearly played a role in Tatis Jr. becoming one of the game’s best young power bats.

2. Tatis Jr’s shoulder surgery changed his swing

Initially when I saw the shocking stat, I immediately thought to myself, “Maybe steroids played a big role in his ascension to stardom.” If you go back to the 2022 season in Tatis Jr’s age 23 season, he missed the entire season with a broken wrist, an 80-game PED suspension, and a shoulder surgery to end the season. It was a completely lost season.

Tatis Jr. tested positive for Clostebol, which is a performance-enhancing substance. While mistakes can happen with medications, sometimes you just don’t know if players are being truthful when it comes to PEDs. And when you look at Tatis Jr’s numbers before the suspension and then after the suspension, it definitley creates some suspicion.

When a player starts their career off like Tatis Jr. did, expectations go through the roof. Only 12 players in the history of the sport have hit 40+ home runs prior to their age 23 season. Then a disastrous 2023 season including the PED suspension occurred and things haven’t quite been the same for Tatis Jr.

While Tatis Jr. has had productive offensive seasons since he returned from his PED suspension, it has not come close to his age 22 season when he hit 42 home runs. The 2026 season is still fairly early but it is odd to see Tatis Jr. still without a home run.

The wild thing about Tatis Jr’s homerless start to the season is that he is in the 99th percentile in hard hit percentage and the 92nd percentile in average exit velocity. Tatis Jr. also has a max EV of 113.4 this season. If someone is trying to make an argument that Tatis Jr. is not the same hitter because he is no longer taking PEDs, it doesn’t make sense. He is hitting the ball just as hard as his 42 home run season and more frequently. The PED argument is a bad argument.

Tatis Jr’s batted ball data in terms of how hard Tatis Jr. hits the baseball does not suggest that he cannot hit home runs. He is hitting the ball hard at a higher rate than Aaron Judge. The reason why Tatis Jr. is not hitting home runs is due to his launch angle. Tatis Jr’s average launch angle has been between 6.7 degrees and 11.0 degrees throughout his career. This season his average launch angle is just 2.4 degrees, which is leading to a ton of ground balls. While the contact is still elite, Tatis Jr. has been unable to lift the baseball.

Photo Credit: Thearon W. Henderson / Stringer / Getty images

The inability to lift the baseball suggests that this is a mechanical issue. It’s possible that the shoulder surgery Tatis Jr. had caused him to tweak his swing and his bat path, which is leading to hitting the baseball on the ground. It’s also possible that over time Tatis Jr. has made some targeted tweaks to his swing and the results have been less than desirable. It’s possible that Tatis Jr. has tweaked too much with his swing that he is unable to do the things that let him be successful in the first place.

While I believe Tatis Jr. will start to hit home runs again, it is a bit odd how the power has dropped off considerably despite Tatis Jr. being in his physical prime years. Could Tatis Jr’s best years be behind him? I am not sure he will be able to top his age 22 season with 42 home runs. While the Padres would love to see him return to an elite power bat, he must at the very least return to being 20-30% better than league average offensively. Maybe as the weather warms up as summer approaches so too will Tatis Jr’s power. But right now it’s a perplexing dilemma and I am not sure anyone has a definite solution for how to fix it.

What do you think has been the biggest cause for Tatis Jr’s power outage?

When Rafael Devers signed an 11 / 330 million dolllar extension with the Red Sox, many believed that Devers would go down as one of the best Red Sox hitters of all-time. It only took two years for the relationship between the front office and Devers to sour. Ultimately, the two sides could not work things out and a trade to San Francisco happened.

While Devers had a productive season last year with the Giants (130 OPS+), he wasn’t the same elite bat that he was for the Red Sox. His average dropped almost 40 points, his OBP dropped almost 60 points, and his OPS+ was 25 points lower than his start in Boston. While he may not have been a top hitter in the sport like he was for Boston through early June, many were willing to give him a little time to figure things out since his life was uprooted in the middle of the season.

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This year Devers does not get the same amount of time. He is expected to produce in a big way. And things look ugly and concerning. Statistically, Devers entered play on Tuesday tied for worst bWAR in baseball (-0.9).

Devers in on pace to accumulate a -3.6 bWAR. It’s hard to believe that the guy who was one of the best hitters in the AL is now a shell of the hitter that he once was. The numbers are beyond bad entering play on Tuesday.

.218 / .264 / .308 / 64 OPS+

When you break down his advanced metrics, it’s hard to be optimistic about a return to form.

The most concerning number from the list about is the walk rate. Throughout Devers’ young career, he struggled to command the strike zone. He would routinely swing at pitches that were nowhere near the strike zone. Last year, it felt like Devers really turned a corner with his plate discipline. With the Red Sox, he was taking very close pitches with confidence, which also translated to San Francisco. Devers’ plate discipline was up there with the game’s best hitters (5th in MLB). Seeing Devers completely lose the strike zone is problematic. Players who struggle with plate discipline usually do not age well.

Last week, there was a clip of Mark Willard from the Willard and Dibs Show that talked about how Rafael Devers comes across as entitled. While the San Francisco media is way less intense than the Boston media, when they start questioning things you have to wonder if there is some truth to it.

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As with every player who was traded away from the team they signed a big extension with, the team that acquires that player has zero allegiance to that player. The Giants fans do not have any “old memories” of Devers doing something awesome for the organization. He doesn’t have any built up good grace to go through one of these dreadful slumps and not hear it from the fan base. With Devers still getting paid $226M through 2033, Giants fans expect big results.

While I am sure that the ballpark in San Francisco has changed Devers’ approach, it is not the reason his numbers are terrible. With his batted ball data down and his plate discipline disappearing, you have to start to wonder if Devers is healthy or just disengaged. Typically, you don’t see 29-year-old players completely lose their ability to hit. You have to wonder if Devers would have just sucked it up in Boston, if things would look very different playing in a ballpark that he tailored his swing for.

There is still a lot of baseball left to be played in the 2026 season. Devers could still put together some big months and we could look up at the end of the season and he is still 20% better than league average. However, the Giants may not be able to dig themselves out of their 14-21 start and Devers’ lack of production has played a big role in that big hole that they must now overcome.

Can Devers win back the Giants fan base?

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The Bad

The lineup

This Red Sox lineup is lifeless right now. This weekend presented a golden opportunity for the Sox hitters as the worst pitching staff came into Fenway Park. But it didn’t change anything. The Red Sox scored seven runs in the three games and they were 3-28 with RISP and stranded 29 runners. Nobody was able to get a big hit in this series except for Jarren Duran.

Photo Credit: Maddie Meyer / Staff / Getty Images

When I watch this offense, I cannot help but notice that the Red Sox hitters do not have a proper plan and are pressing. The absence of Alex Bregman is extremely noticeable. The entire roster last season spoke so highly of Bregman and how he helped them with numerous situations. This year’s team does not have a leader who can help these young hitters learn how to attack big league pitching. It’s not a coincidence that the Cubs are 22-12 and the Red Sox are 13-21.

A perfect example of a lack of a game plan came in the bottom of the 9th inning on Sunday. The Red Sox were tied 1-1 and Caleb Durbin came to the plate to face Bryan Abreu. The Astros pitcher entered the game with a 14.5 BB/9. What did Caleb Durbin do? He swung at the first pitch of the inning, which was a ball and fouled it off. Rather than see if the Fenway crowd could help rattle a wild Abreu, Durbin let him find his rhythm. For someone who is hitting just .165, going up to the plate in swing mode against a pitcher who has zero command is a plan that is difficult to process.

It’s difficult to see a way out of this for this Boston offense. While they won’t go 3-28 with RISP all season, it’s something this group clearly struggles with. They continue to struggle to hit for power. They have just seven home runs at home in 16 games, which is the fewest home runs for a team at home in all of baseball. There is nothing this offense does well right now.

Injuries

The Red Sox rotation has quickly seen the injuries begin to stack up. They could see yet another starter go on the IL as Ranger Suarez left Sunday’s start with hamstring tightness. After the game Suarez said he’s hopeful he can make his next start but the same was said when Sonny Gray went out with his hamstring injury. Sonny Gray is expected back this week but Garrett Crochet will be out for another week. While the team is really scuffling and it feels like another bad week could be the nail in the coffin for this team, they will go to war with potentially three rookie pitchers in Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, and Jake Bennet. That’s a pretty big ask.

Chemistry

After Sunday’s game, Willson Contreras spoke about the offensive struggles.

“It probably doesn’t help that the lineup has a number of young players who don’t have much experience in dealing with slumps.”

Moments later, Marcelo Mayer talked about the offense while also commenting on Contreras’ quote.

“To me, that’s just kind of an excuse: blame the young guys. But at the end of the day, we’re all playing baseball, we’re all pros. We all know what we need to do. I don’t think we’re doing a good job with runners in scoring position. When you don’t do that, you don’t score runs.

I absolutely hate the idea of Contreras taking this stance. While I understand what he was trying to say, the way in comes across is an issue, especially when guys like Trevor Story and Jarren Duran each have a sub .600 OPS. This roster doesn’t need guys blaming each other for their failures. They need to rally together and claw their way out of this early season slump. You would have never heard Alex Bregman make a quote like Contreras’.

The Good

Marcelo Mayer

Photo Credit: Patrick Smith / Staff / Getty Images

This past week was a good week for Marcelo Mayer. Over his last seven games, Mayer is hitting .304 / .360 / .304 with only four strikeouts in 23 ABS. He has become one of the team’s best hitters on the young season. Mayer has seen his K-rate drop from 30.1% to 16.3% heading into Sunday’s action. The 23-year-old second baseman looks comfortable at the plate and at second base. While this season is looking like it could be a lost season for the Red Sox, it could be a huge season for the development of Marcelo Mayer.

Panic or Patience

Caleb Durbin

Durbin continues to struggle with the bat. After a good series in Baltimore where Durbin had some big hits, he followed it up with a 3-20 week. There was a slight stance change for Sunday’s game and it did not yield any desired results. Durbin had three different ABs against fastballs in which the average exit velocity was 55 mph. He has been unable to lift the baseball as his ground ball rate was 60%, up 18% from last season and his barrel rate is only 1.1%. It feels like panic time with Durbin. While his defense has been excellent at third base, it doesn’t feel like Durbin will solve his hitting woes at the big league level.

Up Next

The Boston bats will not have a great opportunity to wake up their bats as they are traveling to Detroit to take on Tarik Skubal and Framber Valdez on back-to-back nights. For a lineup that has scored eight runs in their last five games, it’s hard to be optimistic about their chances of scoring a bunch of runs over the next two nights. Then, they return home to take on the Tampa Bay Rays, who have the eighth best team ERA in baseball. Somehow someway, the bats will have to wake up, especially with an inexperienced rotation replacing a bunch of injured pitchers.

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It’s difficult to describe just how bad the Rockies starting pitching has been over the last couple of seasons. It certainly hasn’t been a big league starting rotation for quite some time. Last season, their rotation ERA of 6.65 was 1.50 runs worse than the team with the 29th ranked rotation. In fact, the Rockies rotation has not ranked above 29th in ERA since 2021. Colorado just hasn’t had anyone who can consistently get big league hitters out.

Enter Chase Dollander.

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Rockies fans have to be thinking, “So this is what a real pitching prospect looks like.” Dollander was their first round pick (9th overall) in the 2023 draft and quickly became one of their top prospects in the organization. Dollander ranked second in the Rockies system in 2024 and became the team’s top prospect in 2025 according to Baseball America.

Dollander debuted last season and things looked rough for the then 23-year-old. Dollander made 21 starts and had a 6.52 ERA. Despite electric stuff, Dollander was only striking out 7.5 batters per 9 innings and he was struggling with command (4.5 BB/9). Everyone was using Coors Field as the excuse for why Dollander would be another failed Rockies pitcher.

As we often see in baseball, time and experience is needed for players to be able to showcase their true abilities. Chase Dollander is one of the biggest breakout stars of the young season. Here are his April stats.

7 G: 19 IP / 11.0 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 / 2.25 ERA

The Rockies have strategically used Dollander to help him find more success at the big league level. He has only started one game as the Rockies have used openers for Dollander to prevent him from having to face the top of the order multiple times. While the goal is for Dollander to be a front of the rotation starter without an opener, building up Dollander’s confidence should be the primary focus.

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In Dollander’s last appearance, he did make his only start of the season. And he was brilliant against the New York Mets.

7 IP, 5 H, 2 BB, 0 R, 7 K

Dollander not only looks dominant this season when you watch him pitch, but the advanced metrics also suggest that what Dollander is doing is very real.

Dollander being in the 88th percentile in K% is significant. Pitching in Colorado is an extreme challenge and the ability to miss bats is a huge weapon for Dollander to consistently have success. No Rockies starter has had a 10.0+ K/9 since German Marquez in 2018 (10.6 K/9), which is the franchise record. If Dollander can maintain his 11.0 K/9, he would set the franchise record for K/9 in a single season for the Rockies.

It is still early in the season but the early results are extremely encouraging. Dollander will have to learn how to make adjustments once the league adjusts on him. He will also have to navigate pitching a full season in the big leagues as his previous high in innings was 118 in 2024. The good thing about where the Rockies are in their rebuild is there will not be pressure this season to push Dollander past what the Rockies are comfortable with.

It appears the Rockies finally have a significant pitcher to build their rotation around. And for the first time in this decade, the Rockies fans can finally start to see a path to this team finally getting back to being relevant.

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