3 Most Important Red Sox Players
Who are the players that could change the outlook of the 2024 Boston Red Sox?
Ready or not, baseball is here! Opening Day is today for most teams as Mother Nature did not cooperate on the East Coast. There will be baseball on TV today from 3 in the afternoon to around 1 in the morning. The Boston Red Sox open up tonight on the West Coast against the Seattle Mariners.
The expectations for the club have never been lower. FanDuel currently has the over/under on their win total at 77.5 wins. That is not a playoff team. If the Red Sox are going to exceed expectations, I think there are 3 players that must step to impact the win total. Rafael Devers is important and so is Triston Casas but they are not 1 of the 3 players. With those players, fans pretty much know they are going to live up to their projections. But there are 3 players that if they exceed their projections, it could change how fans view this team in 2024.
1. Trevor Story
The first 2 chapters in Story’s Red Sox tenure were rough. The TJ surgery caused him to miss a lot of time and prevented him from finding his rhythm at the plate. Story has only played in 137 games over the last 2 seasons. Getting a full season out of Story would be huge for this Red Sox team with big questions. Prior to Story returning last season as the starting shortstop, the defense was laughable. Kike Hernandez made a mockery of the position throughout the first half. Once Story returned, he changed the infield defense. Story had 8 outs above average in only 43 games, which would have ranked 8th among all shortstops if he qualified with enough games. Story’s defense has a chance to steal a lot of outs for the pitching staff this season. His range could also help take some of the pressure off of Rafael Devers, who also had a dreadful season defensively last year.
Offensively, Story has had 1 month where he was super productive during his time with the Sox. Back in May of 2022, Story went on a tear hitting 9 home runs and drove in 32 runs but he still only hit .218 in that month. If you take out that month, it’s been ugly even with the injuries in mind. In his 2 years with Boston, Story is hitting just .227 with a .287 OBP and a 31.7% K-rate. If you compare those numbers to Story’s tenure with Colorado, Story hit .270 with a .340 OBP and only a 27.5% K-rate. When Boston signed him back in ‘22, they thought they were getting the Colorado version of Trevor Story. Fans will point out that he had the luxury of hitting in Colorado for half of his games but now he has the luxury of hitting at Fenway Park for half of his games. If Story can revert back to his Colorado days at least in the OBP and power department, that would go a long way in helping the Sox offense replace Justin Turner’s production from last season. Story and Tyler O’Neil are the two right-handed power bats in the lineup. If Story can rediscover his Colorado swing that earned him MVP votes, that will help the Red Sox increase their win total.
2 & 3: Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock
I will discuss these 2 separately but I grouped them together because the Red Sox are running it back with them in the rotation despite it not working in previous seasons. The Red Sox rotation looks extremely thin after the Giolito injury. Despite Craig Breslow saying that the organization was going to value adding starting pitching, they actually subtracted from what was a weak rotation last season when they traded Chris Sale. The Opening Day rotation of Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock, and Houck are all players who were apart of last year’s dreadful rotation. If Houck or Whitlock can establish themselves as starters, that would increase the team’s win total. If both can establish themselves as starters, they may help put the team into playoff consideration. But if neither can figure things out as a starter, the Red Sox could have one of the worst records in baseball.
Tanner Houck
Last season, Houck started 21 games and had a 5.01 ERA. Watching Houck, he has 2 main struggles that he has to figure out if he wants to stay in the rotation. The first struggle is against left-handed hitters. Lefties hit .271 / .356 / .502 off of him and you can see why with his 3/4 arm angle. Lefties are able to pick up the ball easily off of him. The equalizer for Houck will be his splitter, which he incorporated into his arsenal last season. Houck only threw the splitter 11.4% of the time last season but opposing batters hit .310 and slugged .452 off of it. Hopefully a second year throwing the splitter allows Houck to have a better feel for that pitch and that it can become a weapon against lefties.
The second struggle for Houck last season and the one that most Sox fans talked about was Houck vs the batting order for the third time. Facing a lineup for the third time is something many pitchers struggle with in today’s game. In fact, many pitchers don’t even get the opportunity to do it anymore. There were a handful of starts last season where Houck had success in the first couple of innings and then everything unraveled once the leadoff hitter came up for the third time. The numbers are ugly: .307 / .377 / .560. A pitcher like Houck seems like he would be easier to solve after the first time through the order just because his arm angle is funky. Red Sox fans are hoping the Andrew Bailey can make a few adjustments with Houck to solve the 3rd time through the order issue. If they can solve it like Bailey solved a lot of issues for many of the Giants pitchers, Houck could be in for a breakout season.
Garrett Whitlock
Similar to Houck, Whitlock has 2 things he needs to improve to remain a starter. The first thing is to stay healthy. Pitchers are only valuable to their team if they are on the field and Whitlock has struggled to be durable in the 2 years he has tried starting. In 2022, Whitlock was able to make 9 consecutive starts before going down with an injury. Last year Whitlock could only make 7 consecutive starts before going down with an injury. The question I and many Red Sox fans have is can he take the ball every 5th day and be a reliable option for Alex Cora and this team. Whitlock added weight this off-season to help him carry the workload. Only time can answer this question.
The second question that will have to be answered is can Whitlock be effective if his arsenal is not as explosive. Back in 2021, Whitlock was a reliever and we saw his fastball sit at 96.3 MPH but he could touch 97 and 98 when he needed it. As a starter, Whitlock’s fastball sat at 94.6 and his sinker at 94 and rarely hit in the upper 90s. When the velocity is not elite, Whitlock has less margin for error. Back in 2021, opponents hit .061 against his 4-seam FB and .291 against his sinker. Last season, Whitlock threw five 4-seam fastballs all season long and opposing hitters hit .326 off of his sinker. Whitlock’s ability to locate and keep hitters off balanced with his off-speed pitches will be the determining factor.
Prediction
I am very excited for Opening Day and to have the Red Sox back on a daily basis. I think this team has a lot of fun pieces and will entertain fans. Unfortunately, the team plays in the hardest division in baseball. A case could be made for every team in the AL East to win the division except the Red Sox. Heading into game 1, my over / under win total for the Red Sox is 75.5. If I knew the team would invest around the deadline if they are in the mix, it would be a little higher. But the facts are the facts. Boston was in the mix at the deadline for the past 2 seasons and either sold off pieces or did nothing to improve the roster. Ownership also put a self imposed spending cap on the team so can Craig Breslow even go out and add pieces and take on money at the deadline? I honestly don’t think anyone knows.
If the Red Sox are going to exceed my expectations and the over / under that FanDuel has put on them (77.5), Story, Houck, and Whitlock will all have to take a step forward and be big contributors. Although I may think it’s unlikely the Red Sox are Wild Card contenders, if Houck and Whitlock can show they are legit big league starters my feelings towards the rotation change dramatically. And if Story becomes an impact right-handed bat, the offense becomes one of the best scoring offenses in the sport. I hope I am wrong and those 3 players have huge 2024 seasons.
Happy Opening Day!!! Today should be a lot of fun!
10:10 PM: Boston vs Seattle
Brayan Bello vs Luis Castillo
Great job as always!