Every season there is at least 1 new team that wins 1 of the 6 divisions. Last season, there were 3 teams that won the division that did not win it in 2022. Those teams were the Orioles, Twins, and Brewers. Here’s a reminder of who won last year’s divisions.
AL East: Baltimore Orioles
AL Central: Minnesota Twins
AL West: Houston Astros
NL East: Atlanta Braves
NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
Who could surprise and dethrone one of these 6 teams this season?
AL East: New York Yankees
I was very confident that the New York Yankees would win the East a couple of weeks ago. Then, Gerrit Cole went down with an elbow injury and I began to question things. I still think the Yankees will be the team to beat in the East as long Cole returns in the first 2 months.
Last year, it felt like the Yankees only had 2 consistent hitters in their lineup all season long. Aaron Judge (174 wRC+) and Gleyber Torres (124 wRC+) were the only 2 Yankees hitters that were above league average offensively. The addition of Juan Soto is enormous as his ability to get on base at an elite rate is a necessary skill. Soto also adds much needed left-handed power. Alex Verdugo is also a different type of hitter than what the Yankees lineup has had over the last couple of seasons. If Rizzo and Stanton can return to 75-80% of their normal form, this Yankees lineup will score a ton of runs.
As for the pitching, their rotation should be able to stabilize until Cole returns. Carlos Rodón appears to be healthy. Nestor Cortes has had 1 dominant season and 1 awful season. I imagine he is somewhere in between those 2 seasons. Marcus Stroman should be successful with his pitch mix in Yankee Stadium. All 5 of the projected Yankees starters when Cole is healthy are in the top 85 of Stuff+ entering the season.
** Stuff+ is a new statistic I want to incorporate into my posts and evaluations. Stuff+ looks only at the physical characteristics of a pitch. Important features include, but are not limited to, release point, velocity, vertical and horizontal movement, and spin rate.**
#3: Cole
#30: Rodón
#55: Cortes
#68: Stroman
#85: Schmidt
If things change with Cole and his elbow, then my outlook on the 2024 Yankees changes dramatically. If Cole returns sometime in May, I think the Yankees will be in the mix come the Trade Deadline and add any pieces that they may need, especially after missing the playoffs last season. The New York Yankees are the betting favorites (+165) to win what will be an extremely challenging AL East.
AL West: Seattle Mariners
The Mariners had a disappointing 2023 as they missed the playoffs by 1 game. When you look at Seattle, you have to start with their rotation, which I think is the best baseball. They have a legit ace in Luis Castillo and another potential ace in George Kirby. Logan Gilbert is their #3 and would be an ace on a lot of teams around the league. Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo are at the bottom of the rotation but have a ton of upside. Castillo, Kirby, and Gilbert are all in the top 13 of Stuff+ and all 5 are in the top 39. Good starting pitching gives a team a chance to win every night and Seattle should be in almost every single game.
As for their offense, the additions of Mitch Garver, Luke Raley, Jorge Polanco, and Mitch Haniger will lengthen their lineup and add much needed power. Julio Rodriguez is set up for an MVP season. Cal Raleigh is coming off of a 30 home run season from the catcher position. J.P. Crawford is coming off of a season in which he had a career best .380 OBP. They also are subtracting 2 players who struck out a combined 425 times in Teoscar Hernandez and Eugenio Suarez. Yes, those 2 players combined for 48 home runs and 189 RBI but I think their additions can replace a lot of that production without as many strikeouts. And when the offense knows they don’t have to score 6+ runs a game to win, they can focus on the task at hand.
The Seattle bullpen pairs beautifully with the rotation as they have a ton of power arms with a ton of strikeouts. Last season, the Mariners bullpen had the 4th best team ERA (3.48) and the second most K/9 (9.90). A key part of this bullpen is they should not have to be overworked because the rotation is so strong.
The Houston Astros have won the last 6 full, regular season titles in the American League West. The Houston Astros are still the betting favorites (-115) to win the West but I would not be surprised if the Seattle Mariners led by that pitching staff and Julio Rodriguez end the Astros run.
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
My pick of the Chicago Cubs as the National League Central champs is twofold. I think the Chicago Cubs had a terrific off-season but the rest of the division doesn’t have a strong contender. Let’s start with what the Cubs did.
Over the off-season, the Cubs were patient. They waited for the market to settle down and then cleaned up with a bunch of team friendly deals. Their first deal was signing Japanese free agent Shota Imanaga, who was a little up and down over Spring Training but showed he can miss bats (25 strikeouts in 12.2 innings). It will be interesting to see how Imanaga does compared to Yamamoto as their contracts could not have been further apart. The rotation has Justin Steele, who may be the most head-scratching pitcher in baseball as he can carve up lineups with just “2” pitches. Kyle Hendricks is solid and I think Jameson Taillon is in for a bounce back season. The Cubs also acquired former Astros reliever Hector Neris to help what was an inconsistent bullpen last year.
On the offensive end, the Cubs brought back Cody Bellinger, who finished in the top 10 of the MVP voting last season. President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer also traded for the Dodgers Michael Busch, who was their 4th ranked prospect last season. Busch will start the season with the big league team. I believe the Cubs offensive attack is well balanced. A lot rides on Bellinger to repeat what he did last year but there is plenty of talent on this roster. It was a roster that had 6 players with 20+ home runs and 4 players with an OBP of .346 or higher. Ian Happ is one of the most underrated hitters in the league. Nico Hoerner took a big jump last year. And I think Seiya Suzuki is in for his best season as a big leaguer.
The biggest addition to the Chicago Cubs may have been their manager, Craig Counsell. The Cubs stole Counsell from a division rival in the Milwaukee Brewers and gave him the largest managerial contract in baseball history (5/40). Counsell did an amazing job leading the Brewers to 4 division titles in 7 years. The Cubs now have the most accomplished manager in the division.
My second argument for the Cubs is what the rest of the division did. Last year’s winner, the Milwaukee Brewers, not only lost their manager but lost their ace Corbin Burnes and no longer have their #2 starter Brandon Woodruff. The Reds signed Jeimer Candelario, Nick Martinez, and Frankie Montas but I feel the Reds are a year away from really competing for a playoff spot. The Cardinals have a very old rotation (4 pitchers 35+). And the Pittsburgh Pirates are not serious about winning. Someone has to win the division and I think the Cubs have the best roster. The Cubs have the second highest odds (+200) to win the division just behind the Cardinals (+150).
Do you agree with me that these 3 teams have a chance to dethrone last year’s division winners? Is there another team that could do it? As always thanks for reading! Only 1 more sleep until Opening Day!