3 Things the Red Sox Must Continue in the Second Half
The Red Sox are baseball’s hottest team heading into the All-Star break winners of 10 straight and 13 of their last 15. The hot stretch has catapulted the team back into the Wild Card race as the Red Sox hold the second Wild Card spot. Playing great baseball heading into the break is something Red Sox Nation saw last year. Boston will have to try to avoid a bad start out of the break.
It may be hard to remember because the second half did not go as Red Sox fans had hoped last year but the team played great baseball heading into the All-Star break. The Red Sox won 10 of their final 13 games of the first half and had a record of 53-43. Vibes were high as Boston had sole possession of the final Wild Card spot.
The Red Sox opened up the second half on the road against the Dodgers and Rockies. They dropped 5 out of 6 on the road trip as the bullpen imploded in multiple games. The rocky road trip carried into the home stand and Boston went 3-8 in their first 11 games out of the All-Star break. On July 31st, a day after the Trade Deadline, Boston trailed the final Wild Card spot by 2.5 games.
While that is not an insurmountable deficit in the standings, Craig Breslow was not aggressive at the deadline because of the poor play of the team after the break. They needed to justify spending prospect capital to improve the team and there were not enough signs of life from the team to warrant significant improvements. If the team would have got out of the break better, things could have been very different.
So how do the Red Sox avoid repeating a slow start out of the break?
The truth is avoiding a slow start will be a challenge. Right out of the break, Boston will face the top 3 teams in the National League as they are at the first place Chicago Cubs, at the first place Philadelphia Phillies, and at home against the first place Los Angeles Dodgers. The 10-game winning streak before the break was desperately needed because wins may be hard to come by during that tough 9 game stretch.
There are three things that the Red Sox have done extremely well during their hot stretch that if they can continue to do, they can have a big second half.
Continue to Put Up 0s in the 1st
Since June 30th, the Red Sox rotation has only given up one run in the first inning. This is significant because even with this strong stretch of putting up zeroes in the first inning, the Red Sox rotation still ranks 27th in baseball with a 5.85 ERA in the first inning. Early in the season, it felt like the Red Sox offense was constantly trailing before they even got a chance to hit.
For this young Red Sox team, scoring first is imperative. When the Red Sox score first, they are 37-13. When they score last, they are 16-32. Falling behind in the first inning is not in the winning formula for this group. Continuing to put up zeroes and give the offense a chance to grab an early lead will help this young group continue to play with confidence.
Length from the Rotation
The Boston rotation during their hot stretch was incredible. They have the best ERA since June 28th (2.80). But most importantly, they have thrown the sixth most innings as a starting staff. This is a big difference from the numbers the rotation put up prior to June 28th. From Opening Day to June 27th, the Sox rotation ranked 23rd in ERA (4.30) and threw the 14th most innings in baseball.
The Red Sox have gotten tremendous outings from guys like Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello, and Lucas Giolito over the past six weeks. And while I do not expect the Red Sox rotation to have the best ERA in baseball for the remainder of the season, they don’t necessarily have to. As long as they can continue to eat innings, they will save the bullpen.
The Red Sox bullpen has been a strength of the team for the majority of the season. It ranks 5th in baseball with a (3.44 ERA). The Red Sox bullpen group has been led by Aroldis Chapman, Garrett Whitlock, Justin Wilson, and Greg Weissert. As with most teams, if Boston can use their A-group of relievers in the majority of the high leverage situations, this team will succeed. The more high leverage innings the lower leverage innings eaters pitch, the more susceptible this team is, as is every team. That’s where the starting rotation comes into play. If the starters can continue to eat innings, it will save the bullpen arms and limit the amount of big innings the low leverage relievers have to throw.
Win at Fenway
Being dominant at Fenway Park is something Red Sox fans have not seen in quite some time. Their last winning season at home was ‘22 (43-38) but over the last three seasons the Red Sox are 120-123. If Red Sox teams take advantage of it, Fenway Park can be a real weapon. A fired up Fenway Faithful is unlike any other crowd in baseball and the unique dimensions make it possible to do things that opposing teams just cannot do. After a bit of a slow start, the Red Sox have finally figured out the formula at home.
March / April: 8-6
May: 8-8
June: 8-5
July: 8-1
With a 32-20 record at home, the Red Sox are finally playing good baseball at home. I have always thought that the formula for the Red Sox is to play .500 baseball on the road and stack wins at home. If they can do that, they will be playing in October. With one of the hardest schedules in the second half, Boston will have to continue their winning ways at home if they want to be playing meaningful baseball in late September.
Up First
Coming out of the All-Star break, Boston will be in Chicago to take on the division leading Chicago Cubs. The Red Sox pitching staff will have their hands full as they have to try to contain the #2 scoring offense in the sport. It will be interesting to see how the Boston bats do after four days off. Since June 28th, they’ve scored 110 runs over their last 15 games, which is 18 more than any other team. Will they be able to find their rhythm quickly?
Pitching Matchups
Friday (2:20 EDT): Lucas Giolito (3.36 ERA) vs Colin Rea (3.91 ERA)
Saturday (7:15 EDT): Brayan Bello (3.27 ERA) vs Shota Imanaga (2.80 ERA)
Sunday (2:20 EDT): Garrett Crochet (2.39 ERA) vs TBD