Every year there are players who break into the league with high rookie expectations. For numerous reasons, their success at the minor league levels does not translate into the big leagues. While a select few come into the league and find immediate success, many prospects come in and experience real failure for possibly the first time in their baseball lives. Many talent evaluators say that the gap between the minors and the big leagues has never been larger. So expecting there not to be a learning curve seems very unrealistic. I have identified five players who did not have the rookie campaign they were hoping for last season but could make significant jumps in their sophomore seasons.
Matt Manning (#20 in 2020 according to MLB.com)
2021: 85 IP / 5.80 ERA / 1.51 WHIP / 6.01 K/9 / 0.9 fWAR
Can Manning duplicate what his teammate Casey Mize did in his sophomore season? If he does, it will speed up the Tigers window to compete. Manning really struggled to keep hitters off of the base paths (1.51 WHIP) in his rookie season. Similarly to Mize, Manning struggled to put hitters away last season. It would be huge if he could raise his 6.01 K/9 last season closer to 8-9 K/9. Fewer balls in play results in fewer batters on the base paths. Manning will be throwing in his age 24 season and has plenty of time to figure things out.
Daniel Lynch (#54 in 2020 according to MLB.com)
2021: 68 IP / 5.69 ERA / 1.41 WHIP / 7.28 K/9 / 0.5 fWAR
Lynch is a former first round pick and is part of a talented group of pitching prospects the Kansas City Royals have in their system. The 25 year-old lefty had a rough first trip in the big leagues. Lynch has a great fastball and an excellent changeup. What the sophomore will need to continue to work on are his breaking pitches, slider and curveball. His breaking balls do not have consistent bite, and oftentimes the slider will look more like a cutter. Watching Lynch last year, the control is the biggest issue. 4.1 BB/9 is too many to tightrope around in the big leagues. If Lynch can improve his command, the stuff is definitely there for him to become a productive big league pitcher.
Jarred Kelenic (#9 in 2020 according to MLB.com)
2021: 93 G / .181 / .265 / .350 / 73 wRC+ / -0.7 fWAR
The hype around Kelenic was real. When the Mariners prospect broke into the big leagues after only playing a few games in AAA, many thought he was destined to steal the ROY. I’m not sure anyone could have predicted the dreadful start Kelenic got off to that forced him back down to the minors. There’s no question that the 22 year-old has power that will play in the big leagues (14 home runs). The determining factor will be if he can raise that .181 batting average. I’ve seen some people say they aren’t sure if Kelenic will pan out and I just think that is crazy. We need to let this 22 year-old develop because I believe he will figure it out.
Jarren Duran (#25 in 2020 according to MLB.com)
2021: 33 G / .215 / .241 / .336 / 49 wRC+ / -0.5 fWAR
Duran really put his name on the map during the minor league shutdown during the pandemic. Duran decided to get serious about getting his body in shape and the extra strength allowed for a swing change to add some more power. The combination of speed and power is legit. The glaring hole in Duran’s game is his 35.7 % K rate. The inability to stay off the high fastball gave big league pitchers an easy blueprint on how to get Duran out. If he wants to stay in the league and find success, either laying off pitches out of the zone or being able to get the barrel to the ball up in the zone will determine if Duran finds success or not.
Andrew Vaughn (#13 in 2020 according to MLB.com)
2021: 127 G / .235 / .309 / .396 / 94 wRC+ / 0.3 fWAR
Vaughn played in the most games on this list and saw some periods of success last season. 15 home runs as a rookie in a platoon role is a solid start to a career. Vaughn makes this list, because I think he has the opportunity to make a massive jump and become a top 20-30 hitter in the American League. Vaughn went from high A ball to the majors after not playing in 2020 due to the pandemic. The soon to be 24 year-old ranked 56th among MLB players in average exit velocity (Min 200 PA) at 91 MPH. I believe an off-season of hard work and some minor approach adjustments will help Vaughn find a lot of success in 2022.
Which young players do you think are primed for a breakout season?