5 SP Boston Should Add
Which starting pitchers should new CBO Craig Breslow target this off-season?
One of the best parts of running the Ballpark Buzz Twitter account is getting to interact with a lot of Red Sox fans. One Red Sox Twitter account that I interact with frequently is Tommy Bennett (@TJBennettt37), who is just an awesome Boston fan. We decided to collaborate and create lists of the top 5 pitchers that the Red Sox should target this off-season.
All of Red Sox Nation is trying to forget about last year’s pitching problems. It’s quite obvious that the Red Sox need to add at least 2 starting pitchers if not 3. For a few months last season, Alex Cora was forced to use a bullpen game for ⅖ of the rotation, which led to a second consecutive last place finish. If Boston is seriously interested in competing in 2024, there are some names in the free agent market and via trades that can seriously help the rotation.
Tommy’s # 5: Blake Snell
Blake Snell cracks the list at #5. Snell put together a CY caliber season and the way he finished the year will warrant him a mega contract and rightfully so. However, how he began the year makes me hesitant on wanting to hand him a big contract.
Things began to click when Gary Sanchez arrived on the scene as it was a match made in heaven. Prior to Sanchez arriving, Snell had a 5.04 ERA on May 25th. Gary Sanchez’s first game with San Diego was May 30th and things instantly changed for Snell. To finish the season, Snell had a 2.25 ERA and finished with 234 strikeouts.
Gary Sanchez most likely won’t be coming to Boston and it makes me wonder how much that had to do with his bounce-back after a poor start to the season. Snell is an arm worth having in the rotation but he is not the first on the priority list.
Ballpark Buzz’s #5: Sonny Gray
When some hear the name Sonny Gray, they think about how brutal he was when he pitched for the Yankees. Over the last 5 seasons, Gray has had a 3.32 ERA in 124 starts. Gray gets plenty of swings and miss (9.0 K/9) but most importantly, he doesn’t give up the home run ball (0.4 HR/9). Gray’s pitching style should translate well to Fenway Park. The concern I would have with the Red Sox signing Gray is the length of the deal. Gray will be pitching in his age 34 season next season and I am not sure how well a 5’10” pitcher will hold up as he ages. But I think Gray has a productive 2-3 years left in him and there is no doubt Gray could help the Red Sox rotation next season.
Tommy’s #4: Aaron Nola
It remains to be seen whether Nola stays in Philadelphia or explores the market. If he intends to hit the open market, this is a proven front of the rotation arm. It is a common theme for this segment, as the Red Sox need front of the rotation starters desperately. There is no reason not to be in on any of the top arms.
Nola is a proven commodity and has been a steady arm with the Phillies. He isn’t the first player I’d want but he is someone I wouldn’t mind having. This past season saw him walk more players and give up more home runs. Nola finished with an ERA of 4.46, which was his highest since his first full big league season. What he did do though was turn on the jets in the playoffs. Nola would play for an electric ballpark if the Sox make the playoffs, just as he thrived in the chaotic Citizens Bank Park. He was 3-1 this postseason with a great 2.35 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP.
The only thing that concerns me with Nola is the years of the contract. It would be more desirable to have younger arms man the rotation but you take what you can get. If the years makes sense, this is a great move.
Ballpark Buzz’s #4: Reid Detmers Via Trade
New CBO Craig Breslow can use some of that “prospect capital” he talked about during his press conference and add a young, controllable arm. The Angels should become a fire sale and if that happens, Detmers should be a priority for Boston. Detmers is only 24 years-old and has 4 years of team control. With Detmers, he has elite swing and miss stuff (10.2 K/9). Last season saw Detmers struggle with consistency but there is no doubt that the talent is there for him to become a #2 or #3 starter. In the past, Boston has always had a tough left handed starter (Lester, Rodriguez, Sale). Acquiring Detmers would add a much needed southpaw and give Boston another young arm to pair with Brayan Bello.
Tommy’s #3: Dylan Cease Via Trade
When it comes to spending the money, that’s an ownership move. However, when it comes to trades and putting the prospects on the line and making the hard decisions, that falls on new CBO Craig Breslow. The new shot caller stated in his press conference that he can make the tough decisions. With Bloom failing to be able to deliver on the big move and swinging a trade, Breslow can make a big splash. He has already identified a need and it’s starting pitching. If landing one in free agency doesn’t work, trades are possible. Enter Dylan Cease.
Cease is a guy you want on your team. He is 27 years old and is entering the prime of his career. Cease is a proven ace and would easily slot in at the front of the rotation. He did see his ERA rise this season, but he packs a punch when it comes to his arsenal. Cease has an elite ability to get players to whiff. It was a poor year in Chicago as a whole, so this is not the norm for a player like Cease. This is an arm you build around.
With the White Sox likely rebuilding, they’ll look to get a haul from the Red Sox. By no means should it be Brayan Bello, as that is a player the team wants to build a rotation around. Chicago will have a plethora of options, especially since the Red Sox have the fifth best farm system in baseball.
Ballpark Buzz’s #3: Aaron Nola
Nola has had a long and established career during his 9 years with the Phillies. Nola has been baseball’s most durable pitcher over the last 5 full seasons making at least 32 starts in each of the 5 seasons. In fact, no starter has made more starts than Nola since 2018. The ability to eat innings is something the Boston rotation is desperately lacking. The baseball world also saw Nola dominate in October. There is no question Nola can handle the big stage. The only concern for the 30 year-old is the home run ball as he gave up 32 home runs last season. Nola will demand a big contract but it’s harder to have a more consistent resume than Nola’s. The former Phillies star would enter 2024 as the Red Sox ace.
Tommy’s #2: Jordan Montgomery
Jordan Montgomery was lights out for both the St. Louis Cardinals and the Texas Rangers. He was instrumental to the Texas Rangers winning the World Series. Furthermore, he has shown that he can be a steady arm at the front of the rotation and put the team in a good spot to win games. This is exactly what the Red Sox need.
Montgomery does not have the highest velocity but he can get players to chase (7.92 K/9). However, Montgomery did not give up the deep ball a lot and finished the year with 0.80 home runs per nine innings. He is a happy medium. Montgomery can throw a heater from time to time but can also get the job done if the velocity drops. Boston needs a player who can go deep into games and that is exactly what Montgomery is.
Ballpark Buzz’s #2: Jordan Montgomery
The big lefty was the guy I wanted the Red Sox to get at the trade deadline last season and after an incredible run with Texas to finish the regular season and in the postseason, I still want Boston to sign him. Montgomery is a reliable and durable arm. He’s made at least 30 starts in each of the last 3 seasons, which would be a welcomed sight for Boston fans. His 0.8 HR/9 suggests he can be successful in Fenway. Montgomery is the pitcher who I think has the best chance to age well. The soon-to-be 31 year-old just knows how to pitch as he doesn’t rely on straight velocity to get hitters out. Montgomery could help solve Boston’s pitching woes.
Tommy’s #1: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
This should be the first priority among all pitchers. Yes, he has not pitched a single inning in MLB, but Yamamoto is a front of the rotation arm. He is precisely what the Red Sox need. The Boston Red Sox need pitching and multiple pitchers in general. Yamamoto just turned 25 and the team would likely be getting “the good years.” In Japan, he has been a world class performer and at the top of his game. In fact, he has won the Sawamura Award (NPB’s CY Young), showing he can be that ace going forward.
This is a no brainer decision, as he has already come out and said he wants to play for a big market. Boston is a big market and has a massive hole in their rotation. Yamamoto checks all the boxes. There will be other bidders, so the bank account needs to be open for business.
Ballpark Buzz’s #1: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
There have been some hyped up pitchers coming over from Japan but I think Yamamoto will be the most sought out Japanese pitcher ever. When Yamamoto signs, he will be pitching in his age 25 season, which makes him such an appealing free agent. His 4-pitch mix will translate to the majors highlighted by his devastating splitter. Of all of the free agent starting pitchers, Yamamoto is the best option for an ace for the next 4-5 years. He will cost north of 200 M but if the Red Sox are truly interested in competing in 2024, they need to be the highest bidding team that we have seen them be in the past.
A huge shoutout to Tommy for collaborating on this piece. If you are on Twitter, give him a follow (@TJBennettt37). We will also be working together on our top 5 hitters that the Red Sox should target this off-season, which will be dropping before free agency officially opens up on Monday.
Who would you like to see the Red Sox sign / trade for to bolster the starting rotation?