A Core is Building

Red Sox fans are starting to see this organization take shape and what the next great Red Sox core could look like.

For most of the first half, this Red Sox team was inconsistent and was on pace to finish worse than last year’s poor performing team. In the month of July, we have seen something click both offensively and with the pitching that has propelled this team to a league best 15-5 record in the month of July. This is not a pro-Bloom post. This is simply stating the facts of an organization that is starting to see its pieces fall into place.

Let’s start with the pitching. The Red Sox have been using a 3-man rotation for weeks now. Chris Sale’s last start was June 1st. Tanner Houck’s last start was June 16th. Garrett Whitlock’s last start was July 2nd, when he threw 1 inning. You have to go back to June 27th when Whitlock made a full start albeit a rough one. So how have the Red Sox since that last full Whitlock start gone on to have the best record in baseball with ⅗ of their rotation missing? 

The baseball world is well aware of how Brayan Bello has developed into a front of the rotation arm. But Bello is not the only reason for the Red Sox recent run. Kutter Crawford was the Red Sox 20th ranked prospect back in 2019 according to MLB.com. He has given the Red Sox the chance to win in the majority of his starts. It took Crawford a few starts to find his footing but in his last 5 starts, he’s 3-1 with a 3.55 ERA and he has a surprising 9.2 K/9. His role moving forward is still unknown but Crawford has proven that he can start games and get big league hitters out. 

I don’t think anyone expected the Red Sox to get the amount of quality innings out of rookie Chris Murphy. The Boston lefty was really scuffling in AAA with a 7.01 ERA in 9 starts (12 appearances). Alex Cora and his staff have used Murphy as a bulk reliever and put him in opportunities to be successful. Murphy’s 1.80 ERA and  9.4 K/9 suggests that Murphy may not be a starter but he can get big league hitters out. Some fans may not like that Murphy is not being used as a traditional starter but you cannot argue with the results. And maybe this stretch will help build Murphy’s confidence and allow him to start in the future. Either way, it appears that Murphy can get big league hitters out in some capacity. 

Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom also hit some home runs in the off-season. Chris Martin and Kenley Jansen have bolstered what was a dreadful bullpen last season into one of baseball’s best bullpens (4th best bullpen ERA). Brennan Bernardino has been an incredible find by Bloom (2.31 ERA). James Paxton has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball since he returned from his injuries in May. It may have taken a while for the Red Sox to see the results, but Bloom was 100 % correct by believing Paxton still had a lot left in the tank. Alex Cora made the decision to move Nick Pivetta to the bullpen and he has become the Red Sox pitcher over the last 6 weeks (1.98 ERA since moving to the bullpen).

The pitching has been incredible over the last month+. You cannot find a Red Sox fan that would have predicted the Red Sox to have the 4th best team ERA over the last 30 days with all of the injuries. But that is exactly what the staff has done and pitching will always keep a team in the game. Now, the Red Sox should be getting Sale, Houck, and Whitlock back in the next couple of weeks to bolster what has been a strong unit.

It hasn’t just been the Red Sox pitching that has led them to baseball’s best record in the month of July. The Red Sox have the 6th best scoring offense in baseball and it’s recently been led by some of the Sox young hitters. First baseman Triston Casas got off to about as bad of a start as anyone could have imagined. In the months of March and April, Casas hit .137 with a .283 OBP. Most fans were calling for Casas to be sent down to AAA. But Chaim Bloom and the Red Sox stuck with the 23 year-old and said that he was not going to go anywhere. Casas rewarded that faith by becoming baseball’s hottest hitter. In 18 games in July, Casas is hitting .375 / .478 / .857 with 7 home runs. Casas now looks like the clear first baseman of the future. 

But it certainly hasn’t been all Casas. Jarren Duran was forgotten by almost all of Red Sox Nation after a couple of bad mistakes last season and struggling to produce at the plate (78 wRC+). This season, we have seen a completely different Duran. He’s improved his swing and now has become the leadoff hitter of the Boston Red Sox. He enters Saturday 32% better than league average (132 wRC+) and has improved his defense. Duran’s sustained success suggests that he will be a big piece of the organization’s core for years to come. 

Another young player that is coming into his own is catcher Connor Wong. The Mookie Betts trade is not looked at fondly among most Red Sox fans but Wong’s development has been huge this season. Wong has become a strong defensive catcher (6 DRS) and he has thrown out 32% of base stealers. Wong has been a super durable catcher over the last couple of weeks since Reese McGuire has gone down with an oblique injury. The consistent playing time has allowed Wong to find his rhythm and over the last 18 games, he is hitting .364 with a .400 OBP. It appears that Wong could be the catcher of the next great Red Sox core. 

These 3 young players have made a huge impact on this Red Sox roster, especially over the last couple of weeks. But it’s not just them that have led to Boston having the 6th best scoring offense in baseball. Chaim Bloom has also hit it out of the park with a couple of his signings. Masataka Yoshida is the favorite to win the American League rookie of the year. Justin Turner has been the Red Sox most consistent hitter all season long. The offense has seen different players carry the offense at different points of the season. 

There’s no guarantee this team will make the playoffs this season. The AL Wild Card will likely come down to the final few days of the season with a bunch of quality teams competing for the 3 spots. The Red Sox missed a bunch of early opportunities to take advantage of some poor teams at Fenway Park and those losses could potentially come back and haunt them at the end of the season. The schedule is quite challenging in the final 2 months but they do play the teams that they are trailing in the standings. The opportunities are right in front of them.  If the Red Sox decide to add to this roster, that would only increase their chances, especially since the teams above them will likely add too.

The expectations of Red Sox fans should be for this team to consistently make the playoffs. What we have seen over the last month and even longer with some players suggests that there is a strong core to build around. Going into the season, it was difficult to predict who could be on the next great Red Sox team. Now, it is much easier to picture. The work is not done. It is just starting. But the time to compete for playoff spots starts now and should continue for years to come.