A Red Sox Rebuild?
Last week on an MLB Network show called “MLB Now” host Brian Kenny had a segment suggesting teams that should come to terms with reality and go into a full rebuild. One of those teams that Kenny suggested was the Boston Red Sox. The segment is below if you did not catch it.
Over the last week, I have contemplated if the Red Sox could actually go into a full rebuild or was the video a classic example of the national media talking about something that they don’t really know.
What I will not dispute in the video is that the Red Sox chances of making a push towards a playoff spot are low. The odds were 13.9% before Wednesday’s loss against the Orioles. Playing in the AL East is an absolute grind with the Orioles and Yankees and although the Rays and Jays have been inconsistent this year, they are no walk in the park. But despite the division, that does not mean the Red Sox should go into a full rebuild.
After watching the video, the question I have is if it is even possible for this team to go into a full rebuild? If the Red Sox fall out of the race completely by the Trade Deadline, they should trade off of their expiring contracts, unlike what they have done in years past when Chaim Bloom was calling the shots. If the Red Sox move those players, they would try to move the following players: Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, Nick Pivetta, and Tyler O’Neil. They could move other players too like Rob Refsnyder, Garrett Cooper, Dominic Smith, and Reese McGuire but I don’t think those players would net much of a return. Other than those names, the majority of the Red Sox roster has 3+ years of team control.
Wilyer Abreu: 5 Years
Vaughn Grissom: 5 Years
Ceddanne Rafaela: 8 Years
Triston Casas: 4 Years
Connor Wong: 4 Years
Brayan Bello: 6 Years
Kutter Crawford: 4 Years
Jarren Duran: 4 Years
Tanner Houck: 3 Years
It’s pretty clear that the Red Sox are planning their next great team to be centered around shortstop Marcelo Mayer, outfielder Roman Anthony, and catcher Kyle Teel. All 3 of those top prospects are in AA and could be in the majors as early as September or in the first couple of months in 2025. If the “big 3 prospects” are nearing their debut, wouldn’t it be wise for a team to surround those 3 future rookies with talent when they first debut? A player’s first year can be extremely challenging and he doesn’t need to be thrust into the cleanup spot because there is nobody else capable of hitting there.
Of the players who I listed above with 3+ years of team control, the pitchers are the players the Red Sox cannot move. Boston has had a pitching problem for years prior to this season and trading them for young pitching prospects would not make sense. There are too many unknowns when it comes to pitching prospects. The Red Sox would be smart to keep the ones that they have and add to that group.
The Red Sox will have decisions to make. If Ceddanne Rafaela is the center fielder of the future, there will be a logjam of outfielders once Roman Anthony works his way into the mix with Duran and Abreu also there. President of Baseball Operations Craig Breslow will have decisions to make about who stays as part of the next core and who is traded to bring in talent to fill other holes on the roster. Even if the Red Sox decide Duran is the guy to go, that does not mean a full rebuild is in order. It would mean that the Red Sox are solidifying their roster to move a step closer to contention.
What bothers me about the above video is the idea that every club should be willing to go into a full rebuild. A team like the Boston Red Sox should never really go into a full rebuild with their resources. If the team is being run correctly, ownership should be able to spend the money where the holes are while they wait for the players they draft / sign to develop.
I like Brian Kenny but he makes it sound like every rebuild guarantees sustained winning. Sure, the Houston Astros and now the Baltimore Orioles are great examples of tearing everything down to the foundation and building it back up. But that isn’t the norm. The Colorado Rockies have finished in 4th or last in the NL West for the last 5 years and another last place finish seems unavoidable. They’ve had top 10 picks for the past 4 seasons and they entered this season with the 21st farm system according to MLB.com. The Oakland Athletics organization is a disaster but they’ve already had back-to-back 100+ loss seasons while also trading away multiple all-stars and they only have the 25th ranked farm system coming into the season. Sure, it’s great to accumulate top pick after top pick but then the clubs still have to hit on those picks. And there just isn’t any guarantees when it comes to baseball prospects.
Red Sox fans probably are not big fans of Chris “The Mad Dog” Russo but he is 100% right in this video. Red Sox fans, after 3 last place finishes in 4 years, would not stand for a complete rebuild now. Their answers maybe would have been different after the ‘22 season but a team with the amount of resources as the Boston Red Sox should be getting ready to compete again after only making the playoffs 1 time in 5 years. A full rebuild would mean another 2-3 years minimum of no playoffs, which is unacceptable with expanded playoffs.
Craig Breslow will have tough decisions coming up regarding the roster. But tearing everything down to the bare bones is not one that Breslow should even consider because this Red Sox team is not too far off from competing again. This segment that aired on MLB Network feels like a segment where the hosts were not prepared to talk about the Boston Red Sox.