Analyzing Rafaela’s Swing

An improved stance and swing has allowed Ceddanne Rafaela to take his game to the next level.

Baseball is such a funny sport and when you react, it’s typically in the moment when emotions can get in the way. 162 games is a very long season and there will be ups and downs constantly. One player who has been on that rollercoaster is Ceddanne Rafaela. At the beginning of the season, Red Sox Twitter was ready to trade him to help clear out the logjam that exists in the Boston outfield. However, the brakes on that ride have come to a hard halt. Not only is Rafaela showing he belongs, he’s breaking out of his shell entirely.

The Breakout Nobody Saw Coming

Patience is a virtue, especially with young players, except when you play in Boston. The fan base is rabid and wants to win now in what’s a wide open American League. We can be thankful that fans aren’t calling the shots because I think one thing we now know is Rafaela is here to stay as the center fielder of the Boston Red Sox.

Rafaela is a young player who is finding his way. A reincarnation of Jackie Bradley Jr providing elite center field defense to pair with his bat. The bat has taken a massive step forward and it’s changing Rafaela’s ceiling. Rafaela has managed to improve each month.

May

Average: .267

OPS: .698

wRC+: 89

June

Average: .283

OPS: .870 (best in team)

wRC+: 137 wRC+ (also best)

July

Average: .375

OPS: 1.333

wRC+: 186

Rafaela and Trevor Story have been the best bats for the Red Sox since the month of June. For Rafaela, it’s the changes he’s made to his swing that have allowed him to make significant progress.

Let’s start with his batting stance. In 2024, Rafaela had a wide stance that was 25 degrees open and his feet were two feet apart. The distance between his feet has remained the same this season, but his stance is only opened up to 18 degrees. The stance has clearly helped, but notably his swing path has allowed him to do more significant damage. Swing angle is something new that Baseball Savant has rolled out and is quite neat to dive into. For the class who may not know, swing angle refers to the vertical angle of the bats path with the baseball. A good swing angle is between 5-20 degrees as this allows the batter to effectively drive the baseball in the air.

The swing tilt is relatively the same for Rafaela, sitting at 34 degrees. However, his attack angle is two degrees less than last season. It sits at 12 degrees, which is the optimal range for good offensive production. This is allowing Rafaela to find more barrels (12.6%), which leads to harder contact. Two degrees may not seem like a lot but the improved stance with a slightly different attack angle is allowing Rafaela to be on time with his swing. When a hitter is on time, they can do damage.

Rafaela is enjoying his best offensive season as a big leaguer. His slugging percentage has risen from .390 to .463. His OPS is 100 points better than last season. He’s making harder contact, barreling the ball more, and also has seen his bat speed increase. A lot of this can be attributed to the changes he’s made in his approach and now you’re seeing a more polished product.

Consistency has been a thing that Rafaela has been searching for in his young career, but he’s slowly put together a better approach. He is now showcasing his true potential and value. Since June 1st, he is hitting .287 with a .899 OPS and a 144 wRC+. For the season, his wRC+ is at 109. That’s enormous production considering the value that Rafaela brings to the defensive side of the ball.

We can all see the growth in his game. But this new swing data is some fun data to dive in to and see what’s made Ceddanne Rafaela a special player for the Red Sox.