Analyzing the Catcher Position
Which top 10 catchers from 2023 are locks for future lists?
One of my favorite things about the off-season is when people discuss their top 10 position lists. MLB Network does a great job talking about the various position groups. Over the last 2 years, I have created my own lists. This year, I decided to change it up and analyze the top 10 players at each position based on fWAR from 2023 and try to predict if they will be locks on future lists, questionable to appear on future lists, or if 2023 is the last time they will appear on a top 10 list.
I am starting off with the catching position and I will work my way around the diamond and then into the outfield and finish with pitching. The top 10 catchers list has a lot of fresh names on it as we no longer see names like Yadier Molina and Buster Posey, who were staples on these top 10 lists. The position group has a strong first 6 names but after that, there is a significant drop-off in production based on last season. The position group does feature 6 catchers who are 26 years-old or younger, so there is a lot of potential for growth.
As always, I love to read comments from subscribers sharing their opinions on the different position groups. Now, let’s dive into the top 10 catchers based on fWAR from the 2023 season.
The List:
William Contreras (5.4 fWAR)
Adley Rutschman (5.1 fWAR)
Cal Raleigh (4.7 fWAR)
Will Smith (4.4 fWAR)
Sean Murphy (4.2 fWAR)
Jonah Heim (4.1 fWAR)
Patrick Bailey (2.8 fWAR)
Ryan Jeffers (2.7 fWAR)
Francisco Alvarez (2.4 fWAR)
Willson Contreras (2.1 fWAR)
The Locks for Future Lists
1.William Contreras (MIL) 5.4 fWAR
2023 (141 G): .289 / .367 / .457 / 124 wRC+ / 9.4 Barrel % / -3.4 BsR / 5 DRS
Contreras broke onto the scene in 2022 with Atlanta when he hit 20 home runs and the trade to Milwaukee only set him up for more opportunities. The additional ABs saw the 25 -year-old backstop lower his K-rate by 7 percent from the previous season. The consistent playing time also saw his defensive runs saved go from -11 in his 2 seasons with the Braves to +5 last year with the Brew Crew. He’s one of the best framing catchers in all of baseball (7 catcher framing runs). An elite defensive catcher who has a high OBP while also having 20+ home run power will always be a lock for one of the game’s best at the toughest position in all of baseball.
2. Adley Rutschman (BAL) 5.1 fWAR
2023 (154 G): .277 / .374 / .435 / 127 wRC+ / 7.5 Barrel % / -3.0 BsR / 2 DRS
Rutschman is the backbone of the Baltimore organization. The ability for a catcher to play 154 games in today’s game is huge, which is 9 more than any other catcher. Offensively, Rutschman nearly had a lower K percentage (14.7%) than walk rate (13.4%). The ability for a 25 year-old to make contact consistently but still have the ability to hit the ball out of the ballpark (20 HR) is so valuable coming from the catcher position. Defensively, Rutschman is a good framer (5 catcher framing runs) and does a decent job at controlling the running game (21.9% caught stealing). Rutschman is easily one of the game’s most complete catchers and will compete for the top spot on future lists.
3. Cal Raleigh (SEA) 4.7 fWAR
2023 (145 G): .232 / .306 / .456 / 111 wRC+ / 12.6 Barrel % / -0.8 BsR / 2 DRS
Raleigh fits the mold of a modern-day catcher. He is solid defensively as he threw out 25.7% of the base stealers and ranked 8th with 6 catcher framing runs. The Seattle backstop is durable as he played the second most games among catchers (145). Raleigh provides a ton of power as he has hit 57 home runs over the last 2 seasons, which is 11 more than any other catcher. I’d love to see his OBP be slightly higher (.306) but the defense and power combo is a great combination for a catcher in today’s game to consistently earn him a spot on top 10 lists in the future.
4. Will Smith (LAD) 4.4 fWAR
2023 (126 G): .261 / .359 / .438 / 119 wRC+ / 6.7 Barrel % / 1.9 BsR / 12 DRS
Will Smith may be the most consistent catcher in all of baseball over the last 3 seasons. Catchers who can get on base at the rate Smith can (.359) are super valuable to an offense. Smith was just 1 home run shy of 20 and he is a force in the middle of the dangerous Dodgers lineup. Defensively, Smith had his best season yet with 12 defensive runs saved, which ranked 4th among all catchers. One minor question I have for the 28 year-old backstop moving forward when looking at his advanced metrics is his barrel percentage dropped from 10.3% in ‘22 to 6.7% last season. Even with a drop in barrel rate, I still think Smith is a lock to appear on future top 10 lists with his outstanding all-around game.
5. Sean Murphy (ATL) 4.2 fWAR
2023 (108 G): .251 / .365 / .478 / 129 wRC+ / 15.8 Barrel % / -4.9 BsR / 8 DRS
Sean Murphy’s first year in Atlanta was a success as he put together an all-around solid season. The only knock against Murphy was the fact that he only played in 108 games as he dealt with a leg injury. The Atlanta backstop hit the 6th most home runs among catchers despite missing so much time. His 15.8% barrel rate ranked second among catchers. The 29 year-old has a unique skillset of being able to get on base at an elite rate while also being a terrific defender behind the plate (8 DRS). Murphy is set up for success as a member of the loaded Atlanta offense and I expect him to remain a top 5 catcher for the foreseeable future.
6. Jonah Heim (TEX) 4.1 fWAR
2023 (131 G): .258 / .317 / .438 / 103 wRC+ / 8 Barrel % / 0.5 BsR / 6 DRS
Heim may be the catcher who took the biggest step forward from the previous season. Heim raised his batting average 31 points, his OBP 19 points, and his slugging percentage 39 points. Getting 131 games from a catcher is a luxury for any team, along with his 18 home runs. The 28 year-old took a step forward defensively as well with 6 defensive runs saved and 8 catcher framing runs (third best). Heim is the final member of the top catchers in the game, as there is a significant drop-off after the Rangers catcher. Expect to see Heim on future lists.
9. Francisco Alvarez (NYM) 2.7 fWAR
2023 (123 G): .209 / .284 / .437 / 97 wRC+ / 12.5% Barrel / -3.8 BsR / 7 DRS
This one may be a little surprising as I have jumped to the #9 catcher for my final lock. Alvarez’s first full season in the big leagues was really a tale of 2 halves. In the first half, Alvarez hit .238 with 17 home runs. In the second half, he hit .178 with only 8 home runs. Offensively, the 26% K-rate is borderline but we can’t forget Alvarez is only 22 years-old. Defensively, Alvarez took a big step forward with 7 defensive runs saved and ranked 4th among catchers with 9 catcher framing runs. Even if the average remains low, the power and defense combination should help Alvarez find this list again in the future.
Questionable for Future Lists
7. Patrick Bailey (SF) 2.8 fWAR
*** Rookie Season ***
2023 (91 G): .233 / .285 / .359 / 78 wRC+ / 10 % Barrel / -0.7 BsR / 13 DRS
Bailey was not expected to be the Giants starting catcher going into 2023 but that is exactly what has happened. The 24 year-old has passed former top catching prospect Joey Bart. Bailey is a terrific defender with 13 defensive runs saved in only 91 games and is the top framing catcher (16 catching framing runs). Offensively, Bailey has a lot to still figure out. A low batting average with not a lot of power and a sub .300 OBP is nothing better than a bottom of the order bat. His 28.3% K-rate is also concerning. Bailey’s elite defense could continue to make him a member on this top 10 list. We can’t forget Bailey was only a a rookie and if the offense improves, he will be a lock on future lists.
8. Ryan Jeffers (MIN) 2.7 fWAR
2023 (96 G): .276 / .369 / .490 / 138 wRC+ / 11.6% Barrel / -1.8 BsR / 1 DRS
Jeffers took a big step forward for Minnesota as he raised his average 68 points and his OBP 86 points. Anytime a team can have their catcher have an OBP north of .360 is a huge bonus. The concern offensively with Jeffers is his 27.8 % K-rate. Defensively, the 26 year-old is around league average except for framing, where he ranks 49th among catchers in catcher framing runs. Additional playing time and a slight improvement in his defense could allow for Jeffers to continue to earn more spots on a top 10 list.
Doubtful for Future Lists
10. Willson Contreras (STL) 2.4 fWAR
2023 (125 G): .264 / .358 / .467 / 127 wRC+ / 12.2 % Barrel / -4.4 BsR / -8 DRS
Contreras is not much of a catcher these days with his -8 DRS and -5 catcher framing runs (ranked 53rd). The 31 year-old can still do a lot of damage at the plate. Contreras had his 5th career 20 homer season (20) and he had the 6th best wRC+ among catchers (127). His .358 OBP is still one of the best among catchers. My fear with Contreras is how long will he be able to stay at the position, especially since the Cardinals have historically valued defense. Contreras feels like he is destined to become a DH.
Every year, there are players that we have seen on previous top 10 lists not make the cut for either poor play, dealing with an injury, or a young player struggling early to find his footing in the show. This year, I identified 3 catchers who did not find their way on the list but could in the future.
Mitch Garver (FA) 2.1 fWAR
Garver just missed the list trailing Contreras by only 0.3. Garver is solid offensively (138 wRC+) but does not provide a lot of value with his defense. If he can play more than 87 games, Garver could easily find his way on next year’s list.
Gabriel Moreno (ARI) 1.7 fWAR
Moreno had a solid rookie season for Arizona but played really well in October as he helped the D-backs reach the World Series. I would not be surprised if Moreno takes a big step forward in his sophomore season and makes the list next season.
J.T. Realmuto (PHI) 1.5 fWAR
It’s a little weird seeing Realmuto rank 21st among catchers in fWAR after leading the position group for a couple of years. Realmuto is still a good player and I can definitely see a scenario where he is back on the list after 2024.
Which players do you think are locks for next season? Which players are questionable for future lists and do you think anyone is in jeopardy of not making future lists? Feel free to leave a comment. Be on the look out for the top 10 first base list!
Bo Naylor?