Boston Should Follow Chicago’s Lead
The Cubs waited and got a significant discount on Cody Bellinger. The Red Sox should do the same now with Jordan Montgomery.
The Boston Red Sox and the Chicago Cubs have long been connected. Whether it was the long and painful curses, the fact that Theo Epstein led both teams, or that Jon Lester pitched both teams to World Series titles, there is something connecting these two storied franchises. Both have recently been acting in a similar fashion in being hesitant to sign big name free agents despite being big market teams. The Cubs finally gave in when they re-signed Cody Bellinger. Now, Boston should follow their lead.
Prior to the Chicago Cubs re-signing Cody Bellinger, their off-season was fairly quiet. They signed reliever Hector Nerris and Shota Imanaga but they had to replace Jeimer Candelario, Marcus Stroman, and Cody Bellinger (at the time). The moves they made felt like lateral moves but nothing that was going to push this team further than last year’s team that finished 83-79 and 9 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central. Just a few days prior to the Bellinger signing, their Chairman Tom Ricketts said they “absolutely” have what it takes to win more games than they did last year, despite losing their best offensive player in Bellinger (134 wRC+). If you're a Red Sox fan, you may be thinking to yourself, “This sounds awfully familiar.”
It is hard to understand how members of ownership groups can make statements like the one Ricketts made and the ones Sam Kennedy has made and expect to be taken seriously about wanting to compete. How can any team be better when you remove their best offensive player off of the roster ?How can any team not add a significant starting pitcher to what was the 22nd ranked starting rotation in ERA and claim to be significantly improved?
Ultimately, the Cubs got their guy for what appears to be a pretty significant discount. Bellinger signed with the Cubs for 3 / 80 with a player opt-out after each season. This deal gives Bellinger the opportunity to hit the market again next off-season if he has another big season. It gives the Cubs financial flexibility moving forward as they are a team that has been committed to building from within.
The Bellinger contract seems like a significant discount because of what many in the industry were predicting back when the off-season started.
Tim Britton, The Athletic: Six years, $162M
Jim Bowden: The Athletic: Seven years, $181M
MLBTradeRumors: 12 years, $264M
FanGraphs: Six years, $150M
With how the current market is playing out, it appears that the players do not have the leverage they were hoping for. The Chicago Cubs look like a big winner in this case as they signed their guy and were able to stay under the first luxury tax threshold.
The Red Sox should take notes and go out and sign Jordan Montgomery.
It has been well documented that the Red Sox could use another starting pitcher. Jordan Montgomery is still out there and it sure seems like the 2 parties are a perfect match. Prior to the off-season, many were predicting Montgomery was in line for a big deal.
Tim Britton, The Athletic: five years, $105M
Jim Bowden: The Athletic: five years, $127M
MLBTradeRumors: six years, $150M
FanGraphs: five years, $105M
Similar to the way the Cubs saved on Bellinger, I think Boston has a chance to save on Montgomery. I do not think he will get a 5-6 year deal. I’d be shocked if the dollar amount exceeded 100 M. If the Red Sox can get a deal for 3-4 years for 75-100 M dollars, they should jump on it. If they can sign Montgomery to a deal within those parameters, it will look like a steal compared to the deal the Philadelphia Phillies gave Aaron Nola (7 / 172).
MassLive’s Sean McAdam re-confirmed that the Red Sox budget has been set for quite some time. If a deal with Montgomery is to happen, it will take some convincing of John Henry. Who can convince him to open up that very large checkbook of his? Cough cough Theo.
The Chicago Cubs were a fringe playoff team prior to the Bellinger deal and now they may be the favorite in the NL Central. The Red Sox are a guaranteed last place team with the current roster. They could be a Wild Card contender if the team signs Jordan Montgomery. And, they can do it while staying under the first luxury tax threshold, since that seems important to billionaire John Henry for some reason.