Boston’s Mixed Signals
Trading John Schreiber for a pitching prospect but keeping a 16 M dollar closer just doesn’t make sense.
Yesterday the Boston Red Sox traded reliever John Schreiber to the Kansas City Royals for 22 year-old right-handed pitching prospect David Sandlin. The new Red Sox pitcher has only made 2 starts in A+ but is seen as a pitcher with a lot of upside.
The immediate reaction from evaluators was praise based on the return the Red Sox got for a middle reliever who they claimed off of waivers 2 years ago. Last season, David Sandlin was ranked 19th according to MLB Pipeline but updated rankings have him higher heading into 2024. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel has him ranked #5 in the Royals system and the Athletic's Keith Law has him at #8. There’s clearly some buzz around Sandlin heading into the new season as some evaluators think he could have a breakout year. Red Sox PBO said the following about Sandlin, “We had identified (Sandlin) early on as someone that we think is on the rise and has the makings of a legitimate starting pitcher.” With the lack of starting pitching in the Red Sox system, this seems like an intriguing and necessary addition.
My issue with this move is not the move itself. In fact, I am normally excited about these smaller deals that won’t impact the big league roster as long as it doesn’t significantly hurt the current big league roster. The problem is it feels like a move that should have happened back in 2020 or over the past 2 seasons. Remember, the Red Sox finished in last place in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Even though Boston’s front office never officially called what was happening since 2020 as a “rebuild” that’s exactly what it has been. Heading into year 5 of that rebuild, the Boston Red Sox should not be subtracting from their roster after pitchers and catchers report for a pitcher who won’t impact the big league roster for 2+ years. An organization like the Boston Red Sox should be ready to compete in year 5.
For those who liked the deal, it’s mainly because the Red Sox are dealing from a position of strength. The Red Sox bullpen already has the back locked up with Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin. 2 of Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, and Josh Winckowski will be in the pen when the season starts barring an unforeseen injury. If the Red Sox add a starting pitcher prior to the season starting (it is unlikely) all 3 of those right-handed arms would be in the pen. Boston has other intriguing arms in Isaiah Campbell, Zack Kelly, Justin Slaten, Bryan Mata, and Greg Weissert. There are options in the Red Sox pen with the subtraction of Schreiber.
The counter argument to all of the options is the bullpen is guaranteed to look very, very different a year from now. If the season goes as projected and Boston ends up in last place again, Chris Martin and Kenley Jansen will be traded prior to the trade deadline. Who knows if Houck, Winckowski, or Whitlock survive as a starter or not. The other 5 names on the list are unproven at the big league level. Those 5 names never had a season like Schreiber’s 2022, when he had a 2.22 ERA in 64 games with a 10.2 K/9. Even Schreiber’s ‘23 season was still solid (3.86 ERA, 10.2 K/9). Going into this season, Schreiber had 3 years of team control and could have been a valuable returning piece for next year’s bullpen. It’s likely Breslow and the front office will have to construct the majority of the starting rotation next off-season with Giolito and Pivetta hitting free agency. If they have to add to the bullpen as well that will make next off-season extremely challenging.
It’s clear that the actions of the Red Sox front office suggest that they have zero interest in competing for 2024. If that is the case, which it clearly is, why are they paying 16 M dollars for a closer for a last place team? Teams that are trying to compete for the playoffs pay closers the type of money the Red Sox are paying Jansen. It’s very possible that Boston will still trade Jansen prior to the start of the season and they are just waiting for the right deal. Reports came out that Boston was not willing to eat some of Kenley’s 16 M in a trade. If the Red Sox are building for 2025 and beyond, they should be willing to eat the majority of the 16 M if it means they get a good return for Jansen. Almost all like what Breslow did in acquiring Vaughn Grissom for Chris Sale. Kenley Jansen should be treated the same way.
Many Sox fans I interact with on Twitter seemed to like the move. Ian Cundall of Sox Prospects said this is a move that is made regardless of where an organization is at in the competitive cycle. Everybody is putting all of their eggs in the Breslow and Bailey basket. I’m high on both of these additions to the organization but I am hesitant to call Breslow and Bailey the saviors of the Red Sox pitching woes. It’s possible that the letdown of the Chaim Bloom era, where Red Sox fans felt certain that the organization was going to turn into a pitching factory, scarred me to the point where I have to see to believe. This trade is a move that is betting on the development program of Breslow and Bailey and right now there is zero evidence to support it. Until I see the pitching program turn things around, I will be skeptical.
If Red Sox ownership is really committed to winning in ‘25 and beyond, they will go out and spend on a pitcher that will be a part of the next great Red Sox team. The money that they easily have could be spent on a player like Brandon Woodruff. He’s the perfect fit for this club as he will miss the ‘24 season due to an injury. The Red Sox aren’t playing for ‘24 so the fact that Woodruff isn’t available won’t hurt them. If they want to continue to acquire pitching prospects like Dick Fitts (acquired in the Alex Verdugo trade) and Daniel Sandlin, I’m on board. But they also need to invest in proven big league pitching and they don’t have to wait until next off-season to do it. Pocketing the 35ish M that they have before the luxury tax sends a message that they are actually not invested in getting the Red Sox back to being competitive with all of the holes on this roster.
In the month of February, the Boston Red Sox should be adding to the big league roster, not subtracting coming off of back-to-back last place finishes in the AL East. The Red Sox may have traded from a position of depth but the 2024 Red Sox are not better for it. At some point, the big league roster has to become the focus again in a city that is salivating for a competitive team.