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There have been very few things that have been consistently good for the 2025 Boston Red Sox but so far one of those few bright spots has been Brayan Bello. After missing the first few weeks of the season with a shoulder injury, Bello returned and has been about as good as any Red Sox fan could have hoped.
Through three starts, Bello has a 2.55 ERA in 17 innings. His small 2025 sample size ERA is almost 2 full runs lower than his career ERA of 4.34. As I began to dive into the numbers, I wondered how Bello has been able to be more effective than we have seen in previous season.
Bello is not missing more bats. In fact, he is missing considerably less because his K/9 is only 6.1, which would be a big drop from last year’s 8.5 K/9. Bello’s command in terms of walks has not improved because his BB rate this season (3.6 BB/9) matches last year’s walk rate (3.5 BB/9). Opposing batters even have a higher OPS (.748) than last season (.724). So how can you explain the early season success?
The first thing I had to look at was the expected stats versus the actual numbers. Now, expected stats don’t always match but they often indicate if a pitcher is a little more fortunate than what is typically expected. There are pitchers every season that exceed their expected stats but often times the expected stats and the actual numbers are somewhat close.
For Bello, his xERA (Expected ERA) is 5.36, which is nearly 3 runs higher than his actual ERA of 2.55. His BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) is only .224, which is significantly lower than last year’s .303. And maybe the most impressive number through the first 3 starts is that Bello has prevented 95.7% of the runners who have reached base from scoring. Basically, Bello has been incredible in pitching with runners on base. Last season, Bello stranded 72.1% of the runners that reached base.
Even if Bello has run into some good fortune early in the seasons, there are some adjustments that Bello has made that have helped him get off to a good start.
One of the things that has changed for Bello is the velocity between his off-speed pitches. Bello is throwing his changeup at 89.3 MPH and his slider is averaging 85.6 MPH. This is a noticeable difference from last season when Bello’s changeup averaged 87.6 MPH and his slider averaged 86.8 MPH. Lou Merloni was talking about this on the broadcast during Bello’s last start and it’s keeping opposing hitters off-balanced. The three different speeds between Bello’s three primary pitches is not allowing opposing hitters to sit on a pitch. The change of speeds may be having a positive impact on his sinker as well as hitters are only hitting .240 against it compared to .309 last season with a .440 slugging percentage.
The other noticeable change has been the shape of his slider. The slider has been the mysterious third pitch for Bello as he has been developing it at the big league level. That’s a challenging task to successfully do but it appears after another offseason of working out with Hall of Fame pitcher Pedro Martinez, Bello has made an improvement. Bello has added an additional 5 inches of vertical drop (41.3). The slider also has 4 additional inches of horizontal break. The changeup has long been Bello’s best pitch but the slider is becoming a real weapon for Bello this season.
Is some regression likely coming with Bello? Probably. However, I do think Bello has made some real adjustments that have led to a strong start. A sub 3.00 ERA is unlikely since only 9 pitchers posted an ERA under 3.00 last season. But even if Bello can pitch to a 3.50-3.75 ERA and give the team quality innings, it would be a huge boost to the Red Sox rotation. There may be a little luck involved with Bello’s hot start but there’s no question that Bello’s confidence is at an all-time high right now. And sometimes that’s all that is needed to put together a big season.