Ceddanne Rafaela Keeps Getting Better
The Red Sox center fielder has turned himself into one of the best center fielders in baseball.
One of the best parts about being a 162 guy is watching players continue to make strides with their game. Watching players make adjustments and tweaks in their swings and approaches and begin to figure things out is a lot of fun. One player who continues to make those incremental improvements is the Red Sox center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela.
Photo Credit: Paul Rutherford / Stringer / Getty Images
The book on Ceddanne Rafaela when he entered the league was an elite defender but a hitter who does not understand the strike zone. Over his first two full big league seasons, you could tell that Ceddanne was not comfortable taking pitches and would swing at the first good pitch he saw. That was reflected in one of the highest O-Swing percentages in the sport (swings on pitches outside the zone) and one of the highest overall swing percentages in the sport. While Ceddanne had stretches where he would get hot and help carry the offense, the inability to lay off pitches outside the zone consistently caused him to be inconsistent. This year Ceddanne has continued to get better and the numbers are impressive.
Rafaela has been one of the few bright spots in the Red Sox lineup and the progress is exactly what you would hope to see him make from year to year. For someone who is elite defensively in center field to be a league average bat is extremely valuable. If Rafaela can continue to be 10-20% better than league average with the elite defense, we are talking about an All-Star caliber player.
When you watch Rafaela in the batter’s box, the swing decisions continue to improve. He has improved his O-Swing percentage and he is swinging significantly less.
The swing decision improvements are leading to Rafaela increasing his batting average by almost 40 points and increasing his OBP by almost 60 points. It’s a great sign that his walk rate continues to rise (5.8%). These are the signs you want to see from a player in his age 25 season.
With so many players struggling in the Boston lineup, it’s hard to imagine where they would be without Rafaela’s strong start to 2026. With Rafaela improving in every major offensive category in each of the last three seasons, it’s interesting to think about what his ceiling is as a player. Rafaela could be on his way to a 5-6 WIN season (1.8 bWAR already). His numbers through the first two months of the 2026 season rank high among all center fielders in baseball.
AVG: 3rd
OBP: 2nd
SLG: 7th
wRC+ (5th)
fWAR: 6th
Ceddanne Rafaela signed an 8 / $50M extension back in 2024. That extension is looking like a steal right now. Rafaela is quickly turning into one of the better center fielders in all of baseball and it’s time the baseball community starts to recognize him.