Comparing Vladdy Jr's Deal to Rafael Devers

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What a thing it’s truly been to witness in our lifetime. We have seen the biggest contracts in the history of the sport given out in the past 2 calendar years. First, it was Shohei Ohtani, who signed the mammoth deal ($700M) with the Dodgers including the massive deferrals. This past offseason we saw Juan Soto sign his mammoth deal with the Mets as as he broke Ohtani’s record deal ($765M). Monday gave us the third largest contract in the history of the sport when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed an extension to stay in Toronto.

Ken Rosenthal reported that Vladimir Guerrero Jr agreed to a new 14 year deal with the Blue Jays for $500 million and it included zero deferrals. Vladdy Jr, who recently turned 26, will likely play his entire career for the city of Toronto. At the rate that these mega contracts are given out including the one for Guerrero Jr, the contract that the Red Sox handed out to Rafael Devers is beginning to look like a bargain. Think that’s outrageous to say? Let’s compare.

Comparing the Two Signings

When discussing their extensions, it’s important to remember the positions that they play. Devers played third base at the time of the extension however now it appears he is destined to be David Ortiz 2.0 at the age of 28. For Guerrero Jr, he currently plays first base but it is easy to predict that DH will be in his future. Both players are below average fielders. Both player signed their extension at the age of 26 for the work that they do in the batter’s box.

Guerrero Jr’s $500 million deal will take him to his age 40 season, whereas the Red Sox put pen to paper with Devers for $313 million including a $20 million bonus. When Devers’ deal is done, he will be 37. It’s a significant gap between the two sluggers for just two years separating the dates of the extensions. It’s also a big difference in terms of having to pay big dollars for aging players at the end of their extensions where value may be hard to find.

Diving into the Numbers

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Prior to the Devers extension, he was one of the game’s best hitters. From 2017-2023, Devers hit .280 with an OPS of .853. For Guerrero Jr, he has hit .287 with an OPS of .861. Across this same span, Devers averaged a 123 wRC+, meaning he’s been 23% better than a league average bat across the six years. For Guerrero Jr, he averaged a wRC+ of 137. Devers has finished with a wRC+ above 130 four times and set a career high with a 140 wRC+ in 2022. This is where things get interesting.

Guerrero Jr. has only had a wRC+ of 130 or better three times in his career. What Vladdy Jr. has over Devers are two monster seasons. He’s had two seasons of wRC+ totals of 160+ (166 in 2021 and 164 in 2024). Guerrero Jr’s numbers have not been as consistent as Devers but Vladdy Jr. has shown the ability to perform at an MVP level. Devers consistency has been impressive but he has yet to perform at an MVP caliber level.

Devers has shown more consistent power. In the same span, Devers was able to slug above .500 in four of those seasons. He hit 30 home runs three times and came very close again in 2022. For Guerrero Jr, he also possesses raw power, but he has slugged above .500 only twice in his career. Much like Devers, he has had the home runs. He has hit 30+ home runs three of the last four seasons and set a career high in 2021 with 48.

At the end of the day, both players are elite hitters. Both are on a Hall of Fame track and deserve to be paid like two of the top hitters in the sport. If you are a Red Sox fan, you have to feel pretty good about the deal the Red Sox gave Devers after seeing what the Blue Jays just gave Guerrero Jr. The consistency of Devers and the cheaper price really does give the feeling of a bargain contract for Rafael Devers.