Confidence in the Rotation?
With Corey Kluber moving to the pen, Red Sox fans should feel much more confident in the 5 starters now.
There isn’t really a way to sugarcoat the Boston Red Sox rotation through the first 49 games of the season. With a 5.36 team ERA, it is amazing that the Red Sox find themselves 3 games over .500. Last week, Alex Cora made the decision to move the struggling Nick Pivetta to the bullpen. Today, he decided to officially announce that Corey Kluber is going to the pen. Finally, it feels like the Red Sox have a starting 5 that can give you a chance to win each night.
The beginning of the season is always tricky to navigate. How long of a leash do players get? Is it just a small sample size, too much bad luck sprinkled into the numbers, or is this struggling player who they actually are? With the Red Sox rotation, all of their pitchers have gone through rough stretches but Corey Kluber and Nick Pivetta have struggled in almost all of their starts. For both of those pitchers, it was hard to believe the Red Sox could win when they took the mound.
Once Pivetta was moved to the bullpen, Red Sox fans quickly turned their frustration towards Corey Kluber. With Kluber, he was Bloom’s big starting pitching addition in the off-season signing a 1 / 10 M dollar deal. Kluber has not been the pitcher the Sox thought they were getting as he has struggled with walks and has not been able to work deep into games. Kluber’s 18 walks in 41 innings is only 3 fewer than he had in all of last year and he has only completed 6 innings in 1 of his 9 starts. A 6.26 ERA at the end of May just isn’t going to cut it if Boston is really interested in winning.
With Kluber going to the pen, the Red Sox are now going to roll with the following rotation for at least the near future:
Chris Sale
James Paxton
Garrett Whitlock
Brayan Bello
Tanner Houck
Chris Sale
In Sale’s last 4 starts, he has thrown 27 innings and has a 2.33 ERA while striking out 32. Sale has looked like the Sale of old with an elite fastball and a wipeout slider. Hitters are chasing out of the zone like they were prior to all of the injuries. Sale has thrown 50.1 innings so far this season, which is more than he has thrown in the last 3 years. Monitoring Sale’s effectiveness and fatigue will be important but the results lately suggest that Sale can still be a front of the rotation pitcher.
James Paxton
It was a long wait for Paxton to make his Red Sox debut but in his first 2 starts, he has been terrific and most importantly, the stuff looks awesome. Paxton has showcased an upper 90s fastball with an above average pitch mix. Paxton has thrown 11 innings in his 2 starts and has struck out 14. He has given up 2 home runs but that his been most of the hard contact against him. Obviously there are major health concerns as he only threw 21.2 innings over the last 3 seasons. But if he is healthy, Paxton pairing with Sale gives the Red Sox a formidable front of the rotation.
Garrett Whitlock
I am not sure the conversation of whether or not Whitlock belongs in the rotation or bullpen will ever go away. We get glimpses of what Whitlock can do as a starter, like when he threw a 7 inning gem against the Angels. We also saw him get rocked for 3 home runs against the Rays earlier this season. Then, Whitlock goes down with an elbow injury and it makes people who were on “team starter” start to question things. Whitlock has the pitch mix to be successful as a starter but I am not sure he will ever be as effective as he has shown in the bullpen. Health is a huge question for Whitlock and I don’t know how anyone can be optimistic for him to pitch every 5 days for the next couple of months. But Whitlock does give this team a chance to win most nights when he does take the mound.
Brayan Bello
The pitcher with the most upside, Bello, seems to get better with each start. Bello is still learning on the job and sometimes it’s frustrating to see a guy with so much talent struggle with command. But we continue to see Bello battle and improve. Over his last 3 starts, Bello has thrown 18 innings to a 2.50 ERA with 18 strikeouts. Although Bello has struggled at times to work deeper into starts, last night Bello was able to complete 7 innings and give the Red Sox offense a chance. Not only this season but for the future of the Red Sox rotation, developing Bello is so important. Believe it or not at the age of 24, Bello is the pitcher who has thrown the most innings in any of the last 3 seasons at 153 between the minors and in the big leagues last year. Calling a 24 year-old pitcher the most durable pitcher is a little scary.
Tanner Houck
Alex Cora has shown confidence in Houck all season long and today he gave him his biggest boost of confidence yet by naming him the final starter and sending Kluber to the pen. Houck had his best start of his career Monday night against the Angels going 6 innings and only allowing 1 run while striking out 8. There have been many conversations about Houck’s inability to get hitters out in the second time through the order but Monday night was different. Houck has mainly been a 2-pitch pitcher with his fastball and slider but the development of his splitter is the pitch that will make or break him. A splitter will help neutralize lefties against Houck and it gives hitters another pitch to think about other than his fastball and sinker. Houck has been the pitcher that has given the Red Sox the chance to win the most and I love that Cora is going with the better option.
If I had a phrase to describe the 5 pitchers that will make up the Red Sox rotation, it would be “dangerous upside.” All 5 pitchers have dealt with injuries recently and all 5 do not have a track record of being able to handle a big workload in the big leagues. It would be hard to predict how many innings these 5 pitchers will give the Red Sox over the final 4 months of the season. At the same time, all 5 pitchers give the Red Sox a chance to win each night. Sale and Paxton have a history of being front of the rotation arms and are starting to show they can still be those guys. Brayan Bello has front of the rotation upside. And Whitlock and Houck have the arsenal to shut down any lineup. There may be risks involved with these 5 arms but if the Red Sox are serious about winning in ‘23, these are their best options.