Dalbec and Mountcastle are Prime Examples.
Bobby Dalbec and Ryan Mountcastle are examples of why patience is key.
When prospects break into the big leagues, there is no telling how successful they will be right away. Most have ups and downs for the first couple of years as they make the adjustment to big league pitching. Some have instant success but struggle once the league makes an adjustment. Very few dominate from the get-go. The Red Sox Bobby Dalbec and the Orioles Ryan Mountcastle are prime examples that patience and playing time are what is needed for a player to find success.
Last season, both Dalbec and Mountcastle broke into the big leagues in the pandemic shortened season. Albeit they were short debuts but both had big 2020 debuts.
Ryan Mountcastle entered 2020 as the 5th ranked prospect in the Baltimore Orioles organization (according to MLB.com) and debuted on August 22nd at the age of 23. Mountcastle appeared in 35 games in the shortened season but quickly showed that he could potentially be a bat the Orioles could plug into their lineup for years to come.
.333 / .386 / .492 / 141 wRC+ / 0.8 fWAR
This season, Mountcastle got off to an extremely slow start as the league adjusted to his 2020 season. This 2021 campaign has been a series of the league adjusting and Mountcastle adjusting back. His month by month splits is the definition of the ups and downs of a player still developing his game at the big league level.
Obviously, the Orioles want Mouncastle to be more consistent. He has had 2 months where he would rank among the elite hitters in all of baseball but 2 full months where he has disappeared from the lineup. And right now, he is in the midst of another tough stretch. The Orioles are in the perfect position because they are nowhere near ready to compete and can allow players like Mountcastle to go through his ups and downs without having to worry about playing time being taken from him. If Mountcastle can produce like he did in the months of June (won A.L. Rookie of the Month) and August, the Orioles would have an elite bat in the middle of their order.
Bobby Dalbec was the Red Sox 3rd ranked prospect entering the 2020 season (According to MLB.com) and debuted 8 days after Mouncastle's debut on August 30th. Dalbec came into the league with elite power as a 25 year old but the swing and miss rate was a huge concern. Like Mountcastle, Bobby D had similar success in 23 games in 2020.
.263 / .359 / .600 / 152 wRC+ / 0.6 fWAR
This season, he was given the opportunity to be the everyday first baseman at the start of the season. Dalbec showed flashes of what he can do but for most of the first half really struggled with making contact. His K % in the first half was 36.8 percent. Unlike Mountcastle’s situation with the Orioles, the Red Sox are in the middle of trying to make the playoffs. Winning takes precedence over developing prospects. The trade deadline came and the Red Sox were forced into a move. They added Kyle Schwarber, who at the time was on the IL. Upon his return, he was expected to see some time at first base, along with the addition of Travis Shaw.
Once Dalbec’s job security was questioned and sharing playing time, he started to produce. His surprise turnaround led him to win the Rookie of the Month for August. Below are his first half numbers compared to his second half so far.
Dalbec has been huge during this tough Covid stretch for the Red Sox and you can argue that he has been their best hitter over the past 30 games. It’s evident in the quality of his ABs. He is taking more pitches and taking more aggressive swings.
Mountcastle and Dalbec are perfect examples of prospects that need time and reps to gain their footing at the big league level. It has been said many times that the gap between the pitching in AAA and MLB has never been larger than it is in today’s game. Not every prospect is Fernando Tatis Jr. or Ronald Acuña and can come right into the league and perform consistently. Most prospects are going to go through their ups and downs. Organizations need to be patient because their patience could be rewarded with a solid every day big league player.
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