Different Year, Same Results

Photo Credit: Red Sox team Twitter Page

History has repeated itself as the Red Sox fate has been signed, sealed, and delivered in similar fashion. The Red Sox will once again not be playing October baseball after a second half collapse. Since winning the World Series in 2018, the team has missed five of the last six postseasons and three years in a row.

 After Wednesday’s eliminating loss, even some of the most optimistic Red Sox fans expressed the frustrations of yet another lost season. NESN’s Tom Caron did not hold back but said what all of Red Sox Nation felt, "This is the Boston Red Sox, and to go three consecutive years without a single postseason appearance is not enough." Other prominent Red Sox fans have expressed similar sentiments. Let’s take a look as to why this has happened once again. 

The Constructed Roster

It feels like a lifetime ago after a long 162-game season, but everyone remembers the “full throttle” comments. Ownership and the front office knew what they needed to do and those two words at the time showed they meant business. Instead, the Red Sox got “no throttle” and the team did virtually nothing to make a significant impact. Everyone in the world knew the Red Sox needed a front line starter and one was available via trade. Instead, Corbin Burnes was traded to a division foe in the Baltimore Orioles and now the O’s are once again in the postseason. 

The Red Sox signed Lucas Giolito, which at the time was a good move because they needed an innings eater. Even if Giolito didn’t go down in Spring Training, he was not the front line starter they needed. They also signed Liam Hendriks (who was and is recovering from injury). The moves were minor and minor isn’t exactly what they needed. To add salt to the wounds, Giolito was hurt before the season even began so the “big pitching” acquisition went down and put the team back to square one.

Defying the Odds in the 1st Half

The 2024 Red Sox deserve some credit because they were fun to watch for a large portion of the season. This team showed a “never give up” mentality that was admirable. Starting the year on the west coast for 10 games wasn’t ideal, and Sox fans hoped it wouldn’t be 2019 all over again when Boston started 3-8 on the West Coast. However, the Red Sox started the season well, going 7-3. They were dealt a massive blow that would plague the infield for the majority of the season as Trevor Story went down with a shoulder injury. The Story injury opened the door to many of the young players in the Red Sox system that stepped up and contributed during Boston’s best stretch of the season.  

Wilyer Abreu was a big upgrade from Alex Verdugo in right field. His ability to generate power in his bat was a much needed addition. Verdugo had a great defensive season with Boston in 2023 but Abreu filled in nicely as Boston didn’t lose anything in right field defensively. Rafael Devers was putting together one of his best offensive seasons despite battling injuries. Jarren Duran was putting together an MVP caliber season and truly was coming into his own. Offensively this team was in good shape, but the biggest sign of improvement was the pitching staff. 

This was a pitching staff that already lost Giolito and then lost Garrett Whitlock for the season in April. However, this staff was one of the best in the league from Opening Day until the All-Star break. They had the fifth best ERA in baseball (3.64) and the second best WAR (13.7). Andrew Bailey was cooking in his lab and it even saw Tanner Houck go from being the team’s fifth starter to the ace of the rotation. Houck’s first half performance earned himself a spot on the All-Star team.

The Red Sox were in good shape despite the injuries. They had a 53-42 record heading into the break and they were the hottest team in the sport for the last 2 months. A playoff push was a very real possibility. So how did they miss? Well, a multitude of reasons. 

Wheels Fell Off After the Break

This is where the “Different season, same results” comes into play. The wheels fell off in the second half of the year. Collectively everything fell apart, but at different times. When the pitching was down, the offense would score runs to keep them in games but rarely enough runs to win. When the pitching was good, the offense was nowhere to be found. 

For the second season in a row the Red Sox were right on the bubble for a playoff spot. All they needed was a little push and for the front office to buy in. Did the front office technically buy at the deadline? Yes. But it was nowhere near the caliber of talent that was needed to get this team through the second half. The front office brought back James Paxton. Also, joining the bullpen was Lucas Sims, and Luis Garcia. The deadline was a complete wash as Paxton was lost to injury. Also, Garcia and Sims went down after having multiple blowups in relief. So this team once again was back to square one with no reinforcements in sight. And here were the results because of it. 

August

August was a rough month for the pitching staff. The rotation was middle of the pack with a 4.27 ERA and fatigue was setting in. Starters such as Houck and Kutter Crawford were facing their heaviest workloads. The bullpen was atrocious and blew more games than I could count. The bullpen had the second worst ERA in the month as only the Pirates trailed them.

The offense was there to pick them up. The bats were cranking, scoring the eighth most runs and it allowed the Red Sox to have a chance to win some games. However, another sub .500 finish in August of 13-15 set them up for a September that saw the team run out of gas.

September 

Last year, the Red Sox pitching staff was at its worst some in the final month of the season. This September, it was a complete flip from August. The pitching staff was able to turn it around and get the ERA down to 3.64. Even September call-up Richard Fitts was throwing well as he went 15.2 innings without giving up a run. 

So where was the problem? The offense was abysmal and that’s putting it nicely. 

Here’s what the batting averages looked like in the month of September: 

O’Neill: .183

Abreu: .174

Rafaela: .191

Devers: .188

Valdez: .161

Casas: .224

Simply put, those statistics will never allow a team to consistently win when the games matter most. Furthermore, this team had a whopping 26.7% K-rate and struck out 255 times in the month. It’s just not good enough and it must be significantly better. 

Looking Ahead 

Needless to say, the way this roster was constructed was not built entirely for a postseason run. The younger guys took necessary steps, but this is still a young baseball team that’s learning the ropes at the big league level. You have to wonder how many games the learning curve cost the Sox while those young players were finding their footing.

What the front office needed to do was supplement the group and add complimentary pieces to help form a more competitive roster. They did not do that and the results are the results. Not to mention, the missed opportunity by the Red Sox in September. The Twins and Royals were playing some of the worst baseball of the season. The Red Sox managed to not capitalize on the opportunity as they played bad baseball as well.

Was this team a playoff team? I believe they could have slotted into the sixth seed but with the lack of reinforcements to the roster it quickly became clear that was not a realistic option. Jim Rice said it best after Wednesday’s game, “You need six guys; maybe seven that can play everyday and teach these young guys how to win.” But instead, Boston relied heavily on those young kids and the grind of 162 got the better of them.

It’s not acceptable for the Red Sox to not be a playoff team for the third consecutive season. Based on how this front office has operated over the last couple of years, it’s hard to imagine them adding the necessary pieces this off-season to help propel this team back into the postseason. Red Sox fans deserve better.