The biggest move in what has been a dud of an off-season was the signing of Lucas Giolito and now Giolito, who has been one of baseball’s most durable pitchers over the last 5 years, is down with an elbow injury. TJ surgery is on the table. The injury leaves a large gap in the rotation and leaves many wondering what is next.
The Red Sox starting rotation has been a trainwreck for a few seasons now. It felt like TBD made the most starts among any Red Sox starter last season. Giolito was supposed to be the innings eater. If Giolito misses all of 2024 (he has a partial tear of his UCL and a flexor strain), where do the innings come from just to get through 162? The average starting rotation last season pitched 794 innings. If you’re wondering about teams that actually won last season, the 12 playoff teams averaged 859 innings from their starting rotation.
If Giolito is unable to pitch this season, the Red Sox rotation will not have a lot of innings from pitchers who are returning from last season.
2023 Innings pitched:
Brayan Bello: 157 IP
Nick Pivetta: 142 IP
Kutter Crawford: 129 IP
Tanner Houck: 106 IP
Garrett Whitlock: 71 IP
When you add up all of the innings that the 5 names above threw last season, it adds up to 605 innings. That is significantly lower than the 794 innings that the league averaged and it doesn’t even compare to the 859 innings the playoff teams averaged last season. The question I have now is where do the innings come from?
A logical person may expect the Red Sox to go out and add a pitcher that is still available on the market. A pitcher like Jordan Montgomery threw 188 innings last season. The Red Sox have a lot of money to work with before they hit the first luxury tax threshold but I don’t expect the Red Sox to add anyone else. At least that is not the vibe the Red Sox front office is giving with 3 weeks left until the season starts.
The decision the Red Sox make over the next couple of weeks will be telling. The front office has stated that they think they have a roster that can compete. I am not sure anyone actually believed the front office but that belief from the front office was with Giolito as a member of the rotation. The Red Sox also stated at the beginning of the off-season that starting pitching was going to be a priority. On March 6th, the Red Sox have fewer starting pitchers than they did when the off-season started because of the Sale trade and now the Giolito injury.
Boston’s ownership group has to go out and add a starter to help this inexperienced rotation. This is a move that must be done to just help the current pitching staff get through the season. If no move is made, this is what will happen.
Last season, Alex Cora was forced to bullpen 2/5 of his rotation for much of the second half despite being in the mix on July 31st (2.5 GB in the Wild Card). The Red Sox had a ton of bullpen games after Corey Kluber, Garrett Whitlock, Chris Sale, and James Paxton went down with injuries. If a move is not made to add an established starter, the Red Sox are one injury away from potentially going to a bullpen game in April. I’m just not sure I can take a full season of that.
It’s extremely unfortunate that Giolito is likely done for the season. The Red Sox are fortunate that there are still quality starters available to add to the roster. Adding a pitcher like Montgomery helps this year’s rotation and next year’s rotation. There is no reason not to make this move now. The need has never been greater.
They need help now with the Season on the horizon