Let the Kids Play
Baseball is in the entertainment industry. Play the best players and fans will be entertained.
The concept of holding prospects down in the minor leagues at the beginning of the season to gain an extra year of team control is nothing new. It happened to long-time big leaguers Bryce Harper and Kris Bryant. Now, 12 years later, it’s still happening. This year, the Baltimore Orioles sent 2022’s number 1 overall pick Jackson Holliday to minor league camp rather than challenge him and put him on the Opening Day roster. Will the Red Sox do the same with top 100 prospect Ceddanne Rafaela? It’s time to let the kids play.
Opening Day roster decisions are right around the corner. I have seen numerous discussions on Twitter about how prospects should be treated in the first 6 weeks of the season. I am mind blown as to how many fans are on board with front offices holding players down in AAA so that they do not accrue more than 172 days of service. The only argument for not playing the best players on Opening Day is for future financial gains as the club gets that extra year of team control. But is it actually worth it?
Baseball is in the entertainment industry. Playing the best players creates the best entertainment. From 2018-2021, the Baltimore Orioles were unwatchable. The only thing that spared O’s fans from watching 4 consecutive seasons in which they lost at least 108 games was the shortened 2020 season due to Covid. Baltimore intentionally sucked and produced ugly entertainment. Due to the putrid product that they intentionally put onto the field, they were rewarded with the first overall pick in the 2022 draft, which turned out to be Jackson Holliday. That pick turned out to be the top prospect in baseball.
Even though Holliday is only 20 years-old, why is he not on the Opening Day roster? Did ownership not like his .338 / .421 / .507 stat line in 36 games in AA last year? Did they not like his .267 / .396 / .400 stat line in 18 games in AAA? Or, did they not like his .311 average with 2 home runs this Spring? The reality is the Orioles front office and ownership group are being cheap and trying to get another year of team control. They are more worried about if Jackson Holliday will be on the roster in 2030 than trying to repeat as AL East champs and win a World Series.
This is a no-brainer of a decision as the Orioles can slide Gunner Henderson over to third and start Jackson Holliday at shortstop and have the most dynamic left side of the infield in baseball. Didn’t Orioles fans suffer enough in that 4 years of tanking? Shouldn’t the Orioles do everything possible to win games after playing 546 meaningless games in that 4 year stretch? This is equivalent to the Houston Texas sitting C.J. Stroud for the first month of the season. All Stroud did was go out and win the Rookie of the Year award and take his team to the playoffs. Holliday has the third best betting odds to win the AL Rookie of the Year award (+450) and could help bring an extra draft pick to the Orioles, just like Gunner Henderson did. Starting Opening Day gives Holliday the best chance to win the ROY in what will be a fascinating race this season.
Moves like Holliday to AAA are moves we have grown to expect from Baltimore. Sadly. But what about the Boston Red Sox? For a team that is one of the biggest markets in the sport and historically has loved to spend money, should the Red Sox even consider doing the same thing with Ceddanne Rafaela? The answer again should be no. Ceddanne Rafaela should be on the Opening Day roster.
Rafaela is Boston’s 4th ranked prospect according to MLB.com and debuted last year in September. The 23 year-old displayed his tools but also displayed his struggles making contact (31.5% K-rate). Swing decisions have long been a concern with Rafaela. This Spring, Rafael’s has looked the part as he is hitting .275 with 4 home runs heading into Saturday. He is only striking out in 23.5 % of his 51 ABs. It’s a small sample size but he’s doing everything he’s been asked to do and has been praised by his coaches.
I’m wondering what Rafaela has left to prove in the minors. In 60 games in AA, he hit .294 / .332 / .441 with a 20.7% K-rate. In 22 games in AAA, Rafaela hit .312 / .370 / .618 with a 21.9% K-rate. At what point does Rafaela just have to make his adjustments at the big league level?
The Boston Red Sox are not the Orioles. They have been baseball’s most successful organization in the 21st century. They are also one of the wealthiest franchises in American sports. For a team that desperately needs a center fielder who can steady what has been an extremely subpar defensive outfield, Rafaela seems like a no-brainer.
One thing that is often forgotten in an analytic run industry is that the players are human beings. Top prospects are trying to accomplish a goal that they have had their entire life against the game’s top talent. Being named on the Opening Day roster can instill the confidence that is needed to succeed in the show that no analytical equation could ever quantify.
The frustrating thing as a fan is too many teams are focused on the future rather than the present. And when I say future, I mean 7 years into the future. Teams have no idea what the roster will look like in 7 years but often value down the road over winning now. If players like Holliday and Rafaela turn out to be good big league players or even stars, extensions can happen early. We have seen reasonable extensions lately of players who have a few years of experience. The Pirates signed Bryan Reynolds to an 8/106 M dollar deal. We even saw the Brewers give MLB.com’s #2 ranked prospect Jackson Chourio an 8/82 M dollar deal before he ever played a big league game. Chourio will be on the big league roster to start the season. Losing that “extra year” does not matter if the team is willing to invest in a player early.
This conversation comes down to if the organization believes in the player. If there is doubt that the player is ready or may not get consistent ABs, then it makes complete sense to keep them in AAA. But if the player is one of the best 26 players in the organization and belongs like Jackson Holliday and Ceddanne Rafaela do, then manipulating service time should not be something teams are thinking about. It should be about developing the players and putting the best and most entertaining product on the field.
Update:
Alex Cora announced on Saturday that Ceddanne Rafaela has made the Opening Day roster. For maybe the first time this off-season, Boston made a decision that was not a financially focused decision.