Max Fried vs Corbin Burnes

Who would you rather have as the next Red Sox ace?

Everybody knows the Boston Red Sox need an ace. The question is will the front office be willing to make a big financial commitment to finally have a front of the rotation arm. Giving out big money to a pitcher is something Sox fans haven’t seen the organization do since they gave Chris Sale 5/$145 in 2019. There are two aces that the Red Sox should be all in on this offseason. 

The Red Sox starting rotation surprised in 2024. This was a unit that nobody expected to finish with the 7th best rotation ERA in baseball (3.81). They also finished with the 4th best batting average against (.236) and the 2nd best WHIP (1.19). Last year can best be defined as growth. Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford pitched the most innings in their careers and Brayan Bello showed improvement as the season went on. However, fatigue kicked in as guys were asked to do something they had never done in their careers. All season long, it was clear that this team needed a frontline starter. 

As currently constructed, the rotation could look like the following:

1. Tanner Houck

2. Brayan Bello

3. Lucas Giolito

4. Nick Pivetta (if he accepts the QO)

5. Kutter Crawford 

Pitching coach Andrew Bailey was able to tap into the potential of the arms listed above.  The Red Sox laid the foundation for their rotation but it needs a boost with an ace. The two names that could easily be that boost are Corbin Burnes or Max Fried.

Photo Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

Max Fried (30 Years-Old) 

Max Fried has been an anchor in the Braves rotation for his entire career. He is a pitcher that not only eats innings but is elite at preventing runs. Fried has finished with an ERA above 4.00 just once in his career (4.02 in 2019). Fried has had an ERA of 3.25 or lower in 5 straight seasons. He’s been a Brave for his entire career, and owns a 3.07 ERA for his career. Fried’s 3.25 ERA last season ranked 15th among all qualified starters. Along with being one of the best run preventers in baseball, Fried is elite at limiting hard contact. Fried finished in the 96th percentile for ground ball percentage and the 81st percentile in hard-hit percentage.

Fried is not an elite strikeout pitcher as he ranked in the 52nd percentile for strikeout percentage. One glaring concern are the free passes. Fried saw his walks per nine rise from 2.09 to 2.94. Also, Fried finished with a walk parentage of 8%, the most since the 2020 season. When it comes to his velocity, Fried’s has remained consistent throughout his career. Fried has averaged 94 MPH over the last 4 seasons. The 30 year-old left hander has finished in the top 5 of the CY twice in his 8 year career.

Photo Credit:  Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

Corbin Burnes (30 Years-Old)

Burnes has been an ace for his whole career. Whether it was with the Brewers or the Orioles, he has led a pitching staff for years. Burnes has thrown at least 190 innings in each of the last 3 seasons. In 4 of the last 5 seasons, Burnes has posted a sub 3.00 ERA. Burnes finished his only season with the Orioles with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. The 30 year-old right hander finished with a 181 strikeouts in 194 innings and will secure his 5th straight season of finishing in the top 10 of the CY voting. 

Burnes isn’t quite the same strikeout pitcher he was in the past. From 2019-2021, Burnes’ K/9 did not drop below 12.6. In 2024, his strikeouts per 9 dropped to 8.4. Burnes’ command is one of his best qualities as he ranked in the 80th percentile in walks averaging 2.22 per 9 innings. Burnes saw his walk percentage drop from the year prior going from 8.4% to 6.1%.

One noticeable thing about Burnes is his velocity has increased. His cutter went from 94.3 MPH to 95.5 and the sinker from 95.3 to 97. Heck, even the curveball saw an uptick in velocity. Like Fried, Burnes is not only good at preventing runs but at limiting hard contact. Burnes also keeps the ball on the ground as he ranked in the 81st percentile in ground ball percentage and in the 95th percentile in hard hit percentage.

Projected Contracts

Many think that Burnes is going to get a contract that reaches $200 million, which is definitely possible with the open market. He is projected to get 7 years, which would see him finish his contact after his age 36 season. That is a hefty contract, especially for a player of his age. Nobody will be able to predict how Burnes will be in year 7. For Fried, he is projected to get a 6 year deal worth up to $149 million. Fried would be pitching in his age 35 season in his final year of his contract. One less year and significantly less money may cause the Red Sox to favor Fried over Burnes. Less money would definitely make John Henry happier.

Who to Choose?

If you are just looking at the numbers, Burnes has been the more superior pitcher so far and it’s not really close. If the Red Sox wanted to make a push for Burnes, it will be a massive commitment both financially and in years. Both Burnes and Fried would easily slot into the #1 spot in the Red Sox rotation. These are the pitchers that Boston should be targeting to make a drastic improvement in the rotation. How the Nick Pivetta qualifying offer affects the odds of the Red Sox actually targeting one of these two aces is not yet known. At the end of the day, it all comes down to John Henry and the front office being willing to shell out the cash for high quality talent. The fans know what is needed. The media knows what is needed. The organization knows it too. The need for an ace has never been more glaring.