Out-of-the-box Thinking for the Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles have been terrible for too many consecutive seasons. If you have been following my posts or my Twitter feed, you will know how I feel about the Orioles and their obvious unwillingness to want to be competitive. Heading into the off-season, I think the Orioles should be very aggressive.
Noah Syndergaard should have been a top target for the Orioles. I know what you are thinking. “How would the Orioles compete with other teams?” Syndergaard, coming off of TJ surgery and only throwing 2 innings in 2021, managed to receive a 1 year, 21 million dollar deal with the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels are hoping that Syndergaard can regain his 2018 form and be a stable force in an Angels’ rotation that had a 4.78 ERA last season and threw the fifth fewest innings in all of baseball. The Angels may have Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani but they still only won 77 games last season. In fact, the Angels have not had a winning season since 2015. So if you are wondering how the Orioles, who have lost 100+ games in 3 straight seasons (seasons with 162 games) will persuade Syndergaard, here’s how.
The Angels offered Syndergaard 21 million. The Orioles, who were 29th in baseball in payroll at 54,755,204, can afford to pay a player some money. If the Orioles offered Syndergaard 30 million on the same 1 year deal, would they have been able to persuade him to Baltimore? In the contract, they could have even stated that if the Orioles are trailing by more than 8 games by the Trade Deadline, the Orioles would have to trade him to a contending team. By signing a contract like this, Syndergaard could have guaranteed that he played in meaningful October games and possibly the Postseason rather than wonder if the Angels will turn the corner. The 2022 season is all about Syndergaard showing what he can do to sign a mega deal. He could have figured things out in Baltimore.
If Baltimore’s ownership believes that Syndergaard can regain his dominant form, they could have traded him for 1 or two impact prospects at the deadline. Front of the rotation arms are hard to find at the deadline and contending teams will pay if they want to be legitimate title contenders. The Dodgers paid a premium price to acquire Max Scherzer and Trea Turner but even if they only acquired Scherzer, most likely Josiah Gray or Keibert Ruiz would have had to have been in the deal. A player like Gray or Ruiz could really speed up a rebuild for an organization.
Now, I did not write this to talk completely about a player who the Orioles can no longer sign. I think there are 3 players that if things go correctly, the Orioles could sign on a 1 year deal and trade for assets at the deadline.
1. Michael Conforto
Conforto had a down 2021 season. He hit 90 points lower than his 2020 campaign (.232). His slugging percentage was down 131 points (.384) from 2020. Conforto’s wRC+ was 158 in the shortened 2020 season and there were big contract talks around Conforto last off-season. Nothing got done and Conforto played 2021 needing to produce and his wRC+ was 106. The Mets have extended an 18.4 million dollar qualifying offer, and it is unclear if he will accept it or not. Conforto, who will be in his 29 year old season, is 1 big year away from receiving a mega deal. If Conforto regains his elite form in 2020, the Orioles could deal him at the deadline. Middle of the order impact bats are hard to find. And, Conforto is now a veteran in the league and young hitters like Rutschman, could benefit from working with Conforto, even if it is only for 4 months.
2. Aaron Sanchez
Sanchez missed all of 2020 and only appeared in 9 games with the Giants in 2021. In 7 starts, he had a 3.06 ERA. I think many baseball executives have always wondered if Sanchez could regain his 2016 All-Star form. He will turn 30 in July and if he can show signs of a #2 or even a #3 starter, there will be plenty of suitors for him. And for Sanchez, having had success in the A.L. East before and being a sinker ball pitcher, I can see him being successful in Camden Yards. The Orioles would not have to break the bank for a player like Sanchez.
3. Trevor Story:
Story did not have a typical Story-like season in 2020. Playing for a joke of an organization like the Colorado Rockies (post coming on them soon) is not easy, especially when you are playing in a contract year. There was so much speculation that Story would be moved at the deadline and by the time the 4 p.m. deadline came, Story was still in Colorado. Story was coming off of seasons with 37 and 35 home runs in 2018 and 2019 and only hit 24 last year. His .251 batting average is 21 points below his career average. I think if the Orioles offered Story a 1 year deal for 28-30 million, it would be a hard offer to turn down. The off-season SS market is also saturated with talent and Story could be the only big impact SS on the market next off-season. And Story would put up big numbers in Camden Yards.
Now I recognize that Conforto and Story have qualifying offers attached to them and the Orioles would lose a draft pick if they would sign them. For a team that is rebuilding, that may not be the ideal move. But drafting players in baseball is all about potential and “what could be”. The Orioles could could trade for players at the deadline and acquire talent that is closer to being MLB ready than drafting a bunch of high school players, which has been the plan in the past few MLB drafts.
The Orioles need to be creative in today’s game. They have built their farm system but it has taken a while and it has been painful. There are additional ways to gain assets if you are willing to spend some money. Signing a player like Conforto or Story would give fans a reason to come to the ballpark to watch an Orioles game, even if they are 40 games up .500. Just drafting players and waiting for them to develop seems like an archaic way of thinking.
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