Problems with the Bailey Pitching Program?

Things are not going as smooth in year 2 under Andrew Bailey.

Mandatory Photo Credit: Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox / Contributor / Getty Images

Pitching coach Andrew Bailey is in year 2 in the Red Sox organization and has produced mixed results. Year 1 saw a bunch of guys take a step forward and put the Red Sox pitching program on the map as an organization that can help maximize a pitcher’s arsenal and even fix pitchers. Year 2 has seen the pitching take a step backward and question a lot of the decisions that are being made with the pitchers.

The start of 2025 is not what the Red Sox and their fans expected. A big reason why has been the inconsistencies in the rotation with many of their pitchers. For a pitching program that has been praised to increase players’ stuff and fix pitchers who have struggled in the past, that really hasn’t been the case this season.

Tanner Houck

From ace last season to a phantom IL stint because of poor performances, the fall of Tanner Houck has been tough to watch. Last season was a career year until the wheels fell off after the All-Star break. In 2025, Houck has not just been bad, but it’s gotten to the point where he cannot stay in the rotation. Houck has seen his ERA go from 3.12 last season to 8.04 and his WHIP go from 1.14 to 1.69. For as bad as those numbers are, so is everything underneath the hood.

There has been a change in his Stuff+ this season. Looking at the slider, Houck had a 115 stuff+ and location+ of 103 in ’24. It’s the pitch that made him take a massive jump forward last season. Fast forward to 2025, the slider is at 106 stuff+ and it has a 101 location+. It may not seem like a dramatic drop but Houck is not a big strikeout pitcher. Any loss on his best pitch may have big consequences with how he is able to get hitters out. Tthe eye test is clear that he has lost movement on his best pitch. We’ve seen the outings where he cannot command the slider and it’s a big reason for multiple blowups early in starts.

You can only hope he figures it out if he gets another chance in the rotation but for a pitcher entering his prime (28 years-old), it’s concerning that he has been so bad that he no longer has a rotation spot.

Brayan Bello

Mandatory Photo Credit: Icon Sportswire / Contributor / Getty Images

Bello is like Houck as he was expected to be the second starter or at the very least a middle of the rotation arm. And oh boy has it been quite the opposite.

When he first got back from an injury, the starts weren’t bad but there was room for improvement. And then things just tapered off and there were concerns. Now it’s a problem.

A few weeks ago, we wrote about how Bello was off to what appeared to be a strong start, but the underlying numbers suggested Bello was just lucky. After the brutal Atlanta start, Bello’s numbers have really evened out and now things look a lot worse. Bello has a 5.61 xERA and his ERA is 4.02. Based on the numbers, Bello was lucky, and it finally is catching up with him.

You must wonder if the Andrew Bailey lab is doing more harm than good for Bello. If you look under the hood, things show that Bello deserves that 5.61 xERA. He has trouble simply locating his pitches properly and cannot get batters to chase or whiff. His best pitch was his changeup, and he is having trouble throwing that pitch with any real consistency. It has the highest xBA and the second highest xSLG. It’s telling us that the pitch is no longer an effective pitch. It went from being his best whiff rated pitch last season to third best among his arsenal, and it’s an arsenal that is hardly generating any whiff.

When it comes to everything regarding stuff+, the stuff has plummeted. In 2025, he has a 90 stuff+, a drop from 97 the year prior. His location+ went from 107 to 95. This is a telling sign that his command is way down, evident by his walk rate (5.5 BB/9). Command has always been an issue for Bello, but this is the worst we have ever seen it. The amount of baserunners Bello is allowing is not sustainable. Unless the command drastically improves, it’s hard to see a positive change in the future.

Like Houck, Bello should be taking the next step in his third full season in the big leagues, and he has taken a massive step backwards so far. Why is that happening?

Lucas Giolito

If there is one word you can describe Lucas Giolito with since making his Red Sox debut it is inconsistent. He has given you starts where you believe in him and then some where you want to banish him. He’s made four starts and here’s how they’ve gone:

6 IP. 3 ER. 2 HR. 7 K. 2 BB.

3.2 IP. 6 ER. 2 K. 1 BB.

6.2 IP. 1 ER. 1 BB. 5 K.

4.0 IP. 6 ER. 3 HR. 2 BB. 3K.

Giolito is a tough case because he probably needs patience since he missed all last season recovering from elbow surgery. But the Red Sox cannot really afford to be patient. If he is going to flop every other start, it warrants giving someone else his spot in the rotation. It’s that simple. He’s rocking a 7.08 ERA, which isn’t very far from Houck and a 1.52 WHIP. The biggest common denominator among all three of these guys is the number of base runners they are allowing. It’s just too many to compete without needing luck on your side.

Primarily, Giolito has relied on two pitches, but he has done a better job of mixing in a third to give hitters more to chew on over his last 2 starts. He is throwing his fastball well enough, but when it comes to his breaking ball and changeup, there is little value there. Location and command are lacking. Giolito has an 86 location+ on his slider and 81 location+ on his changeup. You cannot consistently compete if you cannot command the baseball. Big league hitters are just too good to consistently make mistakes in the middle of the plate. They will make you pay. And in half of Giolito’s starts, that’s exactly what has happened.

At the end of the day, the Red Sox need these guys to perform. They went into the season banking that they would provide the team quality innings. We saw Bello and Houck take steps forward last season in year 1 under Andrew Bailey and we should be seeing them continue to grow in year 2. So far, it hasn’t happened.

The adjustments that Bailey has made with them have not worked. The stuff has taken a step back and it’s led to poor results on the field. Luckily, Boston has depth, but that depth can only take them so far. The players deserve blame for their poor pitching performances, but Andrew Bailey’s pitching deserves some blame as well.

We will get a good look if any adjustments were made over the last week as Bello and Giolito pitch in today’s doubleheader against the Orioles. The Red Sox bullpen has been overworked over the last week and could really use two strong starts from Bello and Giolito today. It’s time we see these two starters find their groove and hopefully the Red Sox begin to find some type of groove as we approach the end of May.