Ranking the Starting Rotations in the AL East

Which AL East club has the top rotation heading into 2026?

It’s hard to believe that today is March 1st, which means official big league games will be played later this month. If you are someone who lives in the northeast, you know how dreadful this winter has been. March signals that the light at the end of the tunnel is very close and we cannot wait!

This time of year is one of my favorite times to create content because everyone sees teams different heading into a new season. The American League East should be the most competitive division in the sport. Baseball Scoops and I decided to collab on ranking the starting rotations in the AL East. Our rankings focus not just on who will start the season in each rotation but what the rotations may look like over the course of 162.

1. Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox off-season was interesting to say the least but the one area of focus that they did upgrade is the rotation. Gone is Lucas Giolito but the Red Sox brought in Ranger Suarez on a big deal 5 / 130 and traded for one more year of Sonny Gray. The Red Sox have the best pitcher in the division. Garrett Crochet is right behind Tarik Skubal for the best pitcher in the American League. If healthy, there isn’t anyone in the division that I would want starting a big game.

Ranger Suarez and Sonny Gray are pitchers that should adapt well to Fenway. Suarez is a ground ball pitcher who is elite at keeping the ball in the ballpark (0.80 HR/9: 12th in baseball). Sonny Gray is a spin wizard who brings a ton of experience. In this rotation, he will not be asked to lead this rotation but be a steady veteran. Brayan Bello is their #4 coming off a 3.35 ERA in 166 innings.

Boston has tremendous depth as Johan Oviedo has great upside for someone slotted in as the #5 and Connelly Early and Payton Tolle will be waiting for an opportunity when they are needed. The Red Sox rotation is deep and has a 1-2 punch at the top that can easily match any other team’s top of the rotation. The Boston rotation has the highest projected fWAR in the sport (18.1) heading into 2026.

2. New York Yankees

There is a real argument over the second ranked rotation in this division, but the Yankees take the honor because of what they could have over the course of 162. First, they are led by Max Fried, who is the second best starter in this division. In his first year in New York, Fried was solid pitching to a 2.86 ERA in 32 starts. Cam Schlittler is someone everybody has their eye on after he was incredible in October. His swing and miss stuff is some of the best in baseball (10.4 K/9).

Will Warren is a reliable arm and Luis Gil has shown the ability to be elite even if he cannot work deep in games. One intriguing new option for the Yankees is Ryan Weathers. They acquired Weathers from Miami in a trade, and his stuff looks much improved early in Spring.

The argument for why they belong at number two is who will return in the middle of the season from an injury. Gerrit Cole is recovering from TJ surgery and should be ready around Memorial Day weekend. Obviously, there is a lot that Cole will have to do to show the baseball world that he is indeed back. But if Cole is 80-90% of the pitcher he was before he got hurt, the Yankees 1-2 punch could rival the Red Sox 1-2 punch. The other pitcher returning is Carlos Rodon. The Yankee lefty is recovering from elbow surgery to shave a bone spur and remove loose bodies. He should be back some time in May. The scary thing is Rodon projects to be a 4-5 in this rotation once everyone is healthy.

By the end of the season, I think the Yankees rotation has a chance to be better and deeper than the Blue Jays rotation but there are serious questions that need to be answered. The Yankees rotation is projected to have the 12th ranked fWAR (13.7) heading into 2026.

3. Toronto Blue Jays

You can make a very compelling case that the Blue Jays have a better rotation on Opening Day than the Yankees. Kevin Gausman is coming off a strong season, posting a 3.59 ERA and struck out 189 batters in 193 innings of work. He pitched like a dominant ace, ranking in the 96th percentile for pitching run value. What makes the Blue Jays more stout compared to last season is the type of depth they now have in the rotation.

Out the door is Chris Bassitt, who played a vital role in the Blue Jays season. But also Jose Berrios gets bumped further down the depth chart. In comes Dylan Cease, who had one of the richest contracts for pitchers this winter. Cease finished the season with a 4.55 ERA, but a 3.56 FIP, which suggests he pitched better than the results. Cease finished with the highest K/9 (11.52) and the third highest K% (29.8%). The walks are concerning, but Cease is still a dominant number two.

The Jays will get a full year of Trey Yesavage, who historically took the baseball world by storm. He had a historic debut for the Blue Jays and also had a historic playoff debut. His splitter is vicious and it’ll be fun to see a full season of him. Not to mention, you’ll have Cody Ponce, who had a dominant season in Korea and will bring enormous upside to the rotation. Shane Bieber had a strong showing with a 3.57 ERA, but injuries are certainly a concern.

Overall, this rotation has enormous upside with a lot of swing and miss ability. The stuff is phenomenal and per Fangraphs, they have the third highest fWAR in the American League based on starting rotations at 14.6.

4. Baltimore Orioles

Is this starting rotation a concern going into the regular season? Absolutely. Evidently the Orioles have built an offense that is aimed to outscore their potential pitching woes. However, this rotation could legitimately surprise people and be better than what people truly expect.

Trevor Rogers is the real deal and people should put stock into him as a player. His 1.81 ERA was the lowest ever with a minimum 100 IP. He was the definition of consistency, allowing two or fewer earned runs in 15 straight starts. Rogers is the de facto ace, but a good one to lead this club. Shane Baz isn’t a player to sleep on either. He brings tremendous velocity with his fastball and also has swing and miss in his game. In fact, he had four pitches with a whiff rate of 20% or higher. He was a victim of Steinbrenner Field, having a 5.90 ERA at home, but a 3.86 ERA on the road. He could benefit from pitching away from that park and is a solid number three pitcher with great stuff.

Kyle Bradish remains to be a player worth monitoring. He’s made 14 starts combined the last two seasons. However, in his first two seasons in the league he made 23 and 30 starts with an ERA of 4.90 that jumped down to 2.83 in his sophomore season. If he can return to 2023 form, he forms a really nice 1-2-3 punch.

Chris Bassitt brings enormous depth and a player that can eat innings. A useful player that can be a bullpen arm in the playoffs as well. Zach Eflin and Dean Kramer are also depth arms that have upside. This is by no means the flashiest rotation in baseball, but one that could surprise people if it clicks in the right direction. The Orioles rotation is projected to have the 17th ranked fWAR (11.8) heading into 2026.

5. Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays have the lowest rank in the division but it’s not because of a lack of talent. Drew Rasmussen is a talented pitcher who has the ability to match other team’s aces. The question is how many innings Rasmussen will be able to pitch. Ryan Pepiot is a solid big league pitcher who the Rays can pencil in to the middle of their rotation.

The true wild card in the rotation is Shane McClanahan. We haven’t seen McClanahan pitch in two years but prior to all of the injuries, McClanahan was a Cy Young winning pitcher. Who McClanahan will be in 2026 is a major question and how many innings he pitches is impossible to predict.

The back of the rotation is an area of concern. Nick Martinez and Steven Matz are their projected 4 and 5 starters. Martinez was nothing more than a typical #5 starter last season in Cincinnati. Martinez only struck out 6.3 per 9 innings. At age 35, how much does Martinez have left in the tank? Steven Matz was a reliever last year in St. Louis and Boston. How will Matz’s body respond to returning to starting at the age of 35 after spending an entire season throwing 1 or 2 innings at the most?

I would not be surprised if the Rays have one of the better rotation ERA’s in the division. They find ways to maximize what their players can do. However, I struggle to see where the innings will come from with this group and I think the lack of innings will put a ton of stress on their bullpen. We may not see the effect until the second half but it’s difficult for teams to rely heavily on their bullpen for 162. The Rays rotation is projected to have the 10th ranked fWAR (14.3) heading into 2026.

What are your thoughts?

How would you rank the rotations in the AL East?