Red Sox Playoff Odds

Fangraphs Playoff Odds

The wait is finally over!! The 2025 MLB season officially kicks off for all 30 teams today. For the first time in quite some time, the Boston Red Sox actually enter the season with expectations. It’s an exciting time to be a Red Sox fan and I know Red Sox Nation is ready for a big season.

It’s amazing how different things feel since the Red Sox decided to act like a big market team. The Garrett Crochet move was an enormous move but that’s not what increased the odds of the Red Sox making the playoffs. It was the Alex Bregman signing for $120M over 3 years (Yes, there are deferrals) that changed the outlook of this roster. After losing Tyler O’Neill and not replacing him, the Red Sox offense was lacking that impact bat. Boston went out and signed Bregman to fill a clear hole and they did so by flexing their wallets, something they have been unwilling to do over the last couple of seasons.

The Red Sox no longer have a self imposed spending limit. This is a roster that will be the most expensive roster in franchise history topping the 2019 Red Sox that cost around $244M. The projected payroll for this year’s teams is $248.9M, which is over the $241M CBT threshold. It’s the first time since 2022 that the Red Sox will likely be over the threshold and that’s even before they may decide to take on additional money at the trade deadline.

Spending money doesn’t automatically equate to winning however the Red Sox had holes on their roster. They spent the money to fill those holes, which is why the Red Sox find themselves with their best odds to make the playoffs at the start of the season since 2019. It may be hard to remember because the Red Sox have not been competitive recently but the Red Sox were coming off of a World Series entering the 2019 season. It feels like a lifetime ago but playoff expectations used to be the norm every single season.

The reason I am optimistic heading into the season is not the 54.7% chance to make the playoffs. Teams don’t have to be good teams to be in the mix for a Wild Card spot. We saw the Red Sox hang in the Wild Card race around the Trade Deadline over the last couple of seasons despite being about a .500 team. What has me optimistic is the fact that the Red Sox have a legitimate chance to win the American League East. A 23.9% chance to win the division is much higher than the previous seasons.

With the Yankees missing Cole for the season, the Orioles not having an elite rotation, and the Blue Jays and Rays having clear holes on their rosters, the division is up for grabs. And if the Red Sox are competing for the division, they should be a playoff team.

Happy Opening Day! I’m ready for the grind of 162!