Reviewing 2011’s Top 10 Prospects

After a little over 10 years, how have MLB.com's 2011 top 10 Prospects performed in the big leagues?

There are many baseball website rabbit holes that I find myself falling into during the course of a week. With a couple of the game’s top 10 prospects breaking into the big leagues this season (Witt Jr, Rutschman, Rodriguez), I was curious if being ranked in the top 10 means big league success. Do all top 10 prospects reach the big leagues? How many years does a big leaguer average? What's the average WAR for a top 10 prospect? I chose to look at MLB.com’s first class listed on their website, 2011, and see how well the prospects did now that we are 10+ years removed from their top 10 ranking. 

• The 10 former prospects have spent an average of 9.8 seasons thus far and that number will continue to rise with five active players.

• The 10 players combined for 29 All-Star selections, 2 ROYs, and 5 MVPs.

• The 10 players combined to earn / will earn 1.39 billion dollars.

• The average WAR among 2011’s top 10 prospects is 21.18. 

** All statistics are from 6/2/2022 **

1. Mike Trout (Age 30)

Active - 12 Seasons: .304 / .418 / .584 / 172 wRC+ / 323 HR / 78.8 WAR 

9-time All-Star / ROY / 3 MVPs

Earnings: 227 M (296 M of Future Earnings) - Total: 523 M

Everyone knows the type of player that Trout has become over the years. How awful those twenty-four teams that passed on Trout in the 2009 MLB draft must feel now knowing they all missed on a future Hall of Fame talent. Trout already ranks 68th among all players in the history of baseball (both pitchers and hitters) in career WAR (Baseball Reference WAR). The only knock against Trout is his lack of Postseason success as he has only played one series in October. The baseball world could use some big Mike Trout moments in the playoffs. If Trout can remain healthy, and that’s a big if, he has a real chance to go down as one of the greatest to ever play the game. 

2. Jeremy Hellickson (Age 35)

10 seasons: 232 G / 76-75 / 4.13 ERA / 6.6 K/9 / 11.3 WAR

Earnings: 34 M

A former 4th round draft pick by the Tampa Bay Rays, Hellickson had a solid 10 year career. His best season was his full rookie season when he had a 2.95 ERA in 29 starts and won the Rookie of the Year award in 2011. After his first two seasons in the big leagues where he had a 7.4 WAR combined, Hellickson only had one other season in which he had a WAR greater than 1.3 (2016). A ten year career is an impressive run but after how it started, I am surprised how quickly Hellickson lost his top form.

3. Bryce Harper (Age 29)

Active - 11 seasons: .280 / .391 / .526 / 142 wRC+ / 277 HR / 41.6 WAR 

6-time All-Star / ROY / 2 MVPs

Earnings: 142 M (235 M of Future Earnings) - Total: 377 M

Crowned at 16 when he appeared in Sports Illustrated, Harper has lived up to the hype! A Rookie of the Year, 2-time MVP, and a 6-time All-Star, Harper is carving out a Hall of Fame career. I have not been a huge fan of the massive contracts that the game’s top talent have signed in years past but so far, Harper has been worth every penny of that 13 / 330 M dollar deal. The only thing that people can say against Harper is he left the year the Nationals won the World Series. Can he bring winning back to Philadelphia? Either way, a date with Cooperstown is in his future.

4. Domonic Brown (Age 34)

6 seasons: .246 / .305 / .405 / 94 wRC+ / 54 HR / 0.7 WAR

1-time All-Star

Earnings: 4 M

Brown was a 20th round draft pick in the 2006 MLB draft by the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies had high hopes for Brown, as he was their top prospect in 2011. Brown struggled to hit for power or a high average in his first three partial seasons with the Phillies. 2013 was a massive breakout season as Brown hit 27 home runs and earned a spot on the NL All-Star team. Sadly, the former Phillies outfielder never found that sweet swing from 2013 again and only managed to play two more seasons in the big leagues. A 6 year big league career is an accomplishment for Brown. From the Phillies’ perspective, having the fourth ranked prospect in baseball back in 2011 only producing 0.7 WAR over 6 seasons could not have been what they had hoped Brown would produce in his career.

5. Dustin Ackley (Age 34)

6 seasons: .241 / .304 / .367 / 90 wRC+ / 512 H / 7.7 WAR

Earnings: 10 M

Ackley was drafted 2nd overall in the 2009 draft by the Seattle Mariners and quickly became one of the top prospects in all of baseball (5th in 2011). Coming out of North Carolina, Ackley was described as one of the best pure college hitters. After his rookie season in which he finished sixth in the ROY voting, Ackley really struggled with his hit tool. In a season with 200+ ABs, Ackley never hit above .253 (2013). The tool that Ackley was known for never did develop against big league pitching. Surprisingly, Ackley hit double digit home runs three times, which is not bad production coming from a second baseman. Ackley and Domonic Brown have a lot in common in that their careers were a lot shorter than many would have predicted. 

6. Aroldis Chapman (Age 34)

Active - 13 seasons: 641 G / 315 S / 2.39 ERA / 14.8 K/9 / 19.3 WAR

7-time All-Star

Earnings: 132 M 

I can remember watching Chapman throw in the World Baseball Classic for team Cuba thinking to myself, “This guy could dominate big league hitters with his fastball.” Since Chapman signed with the Cincinnati Reds in 2010 and debuted in the same year, Chapman may be the most dominant reliever in the past decade. Chapman only trails Kimbrel and Jansen in saves since he made his debut. What has made Chapman’s career so interesting to follow is he has been a part of many competitive teams and has pitched a ton of games in the postseason. He’s pitched in 35 playoff games and has a 2.40 ERA. Maybe it is just me but when players are constantly performing in October, it makes their careers seem a little more important. I don’t think anyone could have scripted a better career for Chapman. 

7. Mike Moustakas (Age 33)

Active - 12 seasons: .248 / .309 / .436 / 98 wRC+ / 199 HR / 13.3 WAR

3-time All-Star

Earnings: 77 M (18 M future earnings) - Total: 95 M

A former second overall pick in the 2007 draft taken by the Kansas City Royals, Moustakas has had a really productive big league career. Moustakas has been an All-Star three times and was a catalyst in the Royals rebuild and World Series title. A couple of 30+ home run seasons earned Moustakas the largest contract in Cincinnati Reds history (4 / 64 M). Last season and this year have seen Moustakas decline and he’s been a negative WIN player both seasons. He is only 33 years-old and it will be interesting to see if Moustakas can find a second life and play a few more seasons. Either way, a twelve year career is something to be proud of. 

8. Eric Hosmer (Age 33)

Active - 12 seasons: .278 / .337 / .431 / 108 wRC+ / 192 HR / 19.3 WAR

1-time All-Star

Earnings: 135 M (39 M future earnings) - Total: 174 M

Hosmer is a former third overall pick in the 2008 draft taken again by the Kansas City Royals. Kansas City had two terrific first round selections in back-to-back seasons as Hosmer and Moustakas were right in the middle of the Royals turnaround. Hosmer has had a decorated career as he has won 4 Gold Gloves, he’s appeared in 1 All-Star game, and he has won a World Series title. Still only 32 years-old, Hosmer appeared to be on the decline but has rediscovered his swing this season with a 126 wRC+. Hosmer signed an even larger deal than his former teammate Moustakas did when the Padres locked him up for 8 / 144 M. Quite an impressive career. 

9. Jesus Montero (Age 32)

5 Seasons: .253 / .295 / .398 / 86 wRC+ / 28 HR / -0.3 WAR

Earnings: 990 K

I remember it like yesterday when Montero broke into the big leagues with the Yankees in his age 21 season and looked like Babe Ruth from the right side. It looked like the Yankees found their next generational talent as Yankee stadium was built for his swing. The following off-season, Montero was dealt for another young prospect in Michael Pineda. The deal did not turn out as many would have predicted but Pineda became a respectable big league starter. Montero’s first full season in the majors with Seattle looked promising, hitting 15 home runs and a .298 OBP. The decline happened quickly though as he lost the hit tool and the power. He only appeared in 73 games from 13’-15’ and has been out of baseball since.

10. Julio Teheran (Age 31)

11 Seasons: 240 G / 78-77 / 3.80 ERA / 5.4 K/9 / 20.1 WAR

2-time All-Star

Earnings: 44 M

There was a time when Julio Teheran was one of the hottest names on the market for teams to try to acquire via trade. Teheran was a consistent starter with the Atlanta Braves for seven seasons. Teheran was an All-Star in 14’ and 16’ and he threw the 9th most innings in baseball from his first big league season (2013) to 2019. It is rare to see a pitcher who is only 31 years-old and has a career 3.80 ERA be unemployed. Tehran only made one start last season with Detroit, and I could see the right hander getting another big league opportunity down the road. 

Was the 2011 Top 10 prospect class an overall success?