Reviewing 2012 Top 10 Prospects
With some of these former prospects having over a decade of experience in the show, how have MLB.com's 2012 top 10 Prospects performed in the big leagues?
Last spring, I was captivated by the game’s youngest stars and fell into a deep rabbit hole of prospect research. I was curious to see how baseball’s previous top prospects performed. I wrote a piece that went as far back as I could find on MLB.com’s 2011 top 10 prospects. You can check that post out here:
When I wrote my first post, I was curious if being ranked in the top 10 means big league success. Do all top 10 prospects reach the big leagues? How many years does a top 10 prospect average? What's the average WAR for a top 10 prospect? Today, we look at MLB.com’s 2012 top 10 prospects now that this group has potentially 11 seasons in the big leagues under their belt.
The 10 former prospects have spent an average of 9.9 seasons thus far and that number will continue to rise with 9 out of the 10 players having played last season.
The 10 players combined for 28 All-Star selections, 2 ROYs, 5 MVPs, and 1 CY.
The 10 players combined to earn / will earn 1.49 billion dollars.
The average WAR among 2012’s top 10 prospects is 26.1.
** The average WAR for the 2011 top 10 prospects was 21.18.
1. Matt Moore (Age 33)
Active - 11 seasons: 268 G / 61-62 / 4.45 ERA / 8.2 K/9 / 9.5 fWAR
1-time All-Star
Earnings: 30.35 M
Like so many Tampa Bay Rays pitchers, Matt Moore was thrown right into the trenches when he broke into the big leagues in 2011. Moore only appeared in 3 games before he started game 1 of the ALDS and threw 7 shutout innings in a Tampa win. Moor’s first 3 seasons were strong as a member of the Rays rotation and he even earned an All-Star selection in 2013. Moore injured his elbow and needed TJ surgery in 2014 and never was able to regain that All-Star level form as a starter. This past season, Moore moved to the bullpen permanently for the Texas Rangers and was incredible, pitching to a 1.95 ERA. Dominant lefty relievers are hard to find and Moore moving to the bullpen could extend years onto his career.
2. Bryce Harper (Age 29)
Active - 11 seasons: .280 / .390 / .523 / 141 wRC+ / 285 HR / 44.2 WAR
7-time All-Star / ROY / 2 MVPs
Earnings: 142 M (235 M future earnings) - Total: 377 M
It’s nearly impossible for players to meet expectations when they are crowned as the next mega superstar at the age of 16, but Harper has become what many thought he could become when he appeared on the cover of SI way back in the day. Harper has embraced the city of Philadelphia and his work ethic and desire to play through injuries has won over the fan base, which is no easy task with the Philadelphia fans. Not to mention he has been one of baseball’s most consistent players since he joined the Phillies prior to the 2019 season. Harper had one of the best postseasons we have ever seen this past October as he put Philadelphia back on the map. The only thing that is left to do is bring a title to Philly.
3. Mike Trout (Age 31)
Active - 12 Seasons: .303 / .415 / .587 / 172 wRC+ / 350 HR / 82 WAR
10-time All-Star / ROY / 3 MVPs
Earnings: 227 M (296 M in future Earnings) - Total: 523 M
Even in Trout’s injury plagued seasons, they are better than most players’ best season. Trout has had an incredible individual career through his age 31 season but the question many have now with 12 seasons under his belt is what impact is he actually having on his team? With 1 playoff appearance in those 12 seasons and only getting older, will we ever see peak Trout perform on baseball’s biggest stage? I hope the baseball world is blessed with that scenario. No matter how the Angels perform next season, a healthy 2023 season will put Trout in the top 50 on the all-time WAR leaderboard. It’s an incredible feat for Trout to be talked about among the game's greatest players but winning needs to be a part of his resume when it’s all said and done.
4. Julio Teheran (Age 35)
11 Seasons: 240 G / 78-77 / 3.80 ERA / 5.4 K/9 / 20.1 WAR
2-time All-Star
Earnings: 44 M
If you were to time travel back to 2015, you would hear Julio Teheran’s name talked about a lot as he was one of the game’s most underrated pitchers at the time of his dominance. Every July it seemed like he was in mock trades, but Atlanta never pulled the trigger on a move. If you look at Teheran’s career numbers, it may surprise you that he only made 1 start in 21’ and did not pitch in the big leagues in 22’. Teheran felt like a pitcher that would be crafty enough to pitch into his mid to late 30s. I’ll never say never on a player making a comeback but at the age of 35, Teheran has a very small window to try to pitch in the big leagues. If he never throws another big league pitch, he will go down as the second winningest pitcher from Columbia.
5. Shelby Miller (Age 32)
Active - 10 seasons: 167 G / 38-58 / 4.21 ERA / 7.4 K/9 / 7.4 fWAR
1-time All-Star
Earnings: 17.69 M
I don’t think many could have predicted Shelby Miller’s nose-dive after his first 3 big league seasons. Miller made 95 starts in his first 3 seasons and his ERAs were the following:
2013: 3.06
2014: 3.74
2015: 3.02
** Remarkably, in the 2015 season, he led the National League in losses with 17, despite an almost sub 3.00 ERA. Talk about an unlucky season.
His terrific start to his career allowed Atlanta to flip him to Arizona for a former first overall pick in Dansby Swanson. The deal could not have worked out any worse for the D-Backs as Miller made 28 starts in 3 seasons and had a 6.35 ERA in those 28 starts. Miller has managed to bounce around and even made 4 appearances for the San Francisco Giants this past season, which surprised me. Although Miller’s peak was very short-lived, he was a very productive pitcher for 3 seasons.
6. Manny Machado (Age 30)
Active: 11 Seasons: .282 / .341 / .493 / 124 wRC+ / 283 HR / 46.6 WAR
6-time All-Star
Earnings: 142 M (192 M in Future Earnings) = Total: 334 M
Manny Machado’s numbers are about as consistent as the IRS demanding you pay your taxes. He’s an incredible talent and a quiet superstar. When he played for the Orioles, Machado made some very embarrassing public mistakes. There was the throwing the bat down the third base line against the A’s and the dirty slide that ultimately ended Dustin Pedroia’s career. Moving to the West Coast and playing for a team that was not originally in the spotlight may have been the best thing for him. Out of all of the big contract players, Machado is in the best situation. No one questions him or talks about a mistake, because he plays with another big contract player who is a walking mistake in Fernando Tatis Jr. All Machado has to do is go out and play the game, which he is really good at. Not only has Machado been an elite offensive player, he has 97 DRS since his debut, which ranks 6th in all of baseball. Machado is an elite all around player and is on a hall of fame path.
7. Jurickson Profar (Age 29)
Active - 9 seasons: .238 / .322 / .386 / 94 wRC+ / 648 H / 6.0 WAR
Earnings: 24.68 M (18.3 in Future Earnings) = Total: 42.98 M
Profar was a prospect darling back from 2010-2012 as he was seen as an untouchable, can’t miss future star. Profar is a great example of a prospect that needed time to figure things out. Profar did not find immediate success and then dealt with a series of injuries that caused him to miss the entire 2014 and 2015 seasons. It wasn’t until 2018, 7 years after his big league debut, that Profar played in more than 90 games (146 in 18’). Profar has found himself in great situations over the past 5 years as he has played for Texas, Oakland, and San Diego. All 3 of those teams were able to offer Profar playing time, which has allowed Profar to develop into a productive every day big leaguer. Profar may not be the superstar level player that many scouts thought he could become but he’s turned himself into an MLB starter, which should not be taken for granted for any top 10 prospect.
8. Jameson Taillon (Age 30)
Active - 6 seasons: 143 G / 51-35 / 3.84 ERA / 8.1 K/9 / 13.7 fWAR
Earnings: 11.44M
Taillon has shown a ton of resiliency in his early career as the right hander beat testicular cancer back in his days with Pittsburgh and then had to recover from TJ surgery in 2020. When he has been on the mound, Taillon has been a very productive big league starter. As with many top prospects, fans are always wondering if the player has another gear left to find to take his game to the next level. That description fits Taillon perfectly as he is a solid # 3 starter on a contending team, but I’m not sure he will ever turn himself into a front of the rotation arm. Mid rotation starters who have made an average of 30 starts over the last 2 seasons are super valuable. Taillon will be a free agent this off-season and should be in for a nice payday following a strong season in the Bronx.
9. Trevor Bauer (Age 31)
Active - 10 seasons: 222 G / 83-69 / 3.79 ERA / 9.8 K/9 / 21.7 fWAR
1-time All-Star / 1 CY
Earnings: 113.9 M
Bauer was somewhat of a unicorn when he was drafted back in 2011 as he had a strange throwing program and some unique beliefs on pitching. The talent has always been there with Bauer and he really figured things out in Cincinnati when he won the CY in 2020. Bauer has had a bunch of on the field and off the field mistakes that have prevented him from solidifying himself as one of the game’s best. Whether it was the drone incident, throwing the ball over the center field fence when Tito Francona came out to take him out, or the most recent sexual assault allegations, he can’t get out of his own way. Now he finds himself in the middle of a 2 year suspension and wondering if any team will give him another shot.
10. Dylan Bundy (Age 29)
Active - 8 seasons: 190 G / 54-65 / 4.74 ERA / 8.4 K/9 / 10.1 fWAR
Earnings: 27.9 M
I’m not sure I heard the phrase “a can’t miss prospect” more than when scouts and baseball analysts talked about Dylan Bundy. He was supposed to be the next ace of th Orioles team but that never happened. A big part of what held Bundy back was the inability to stay healthy. Bundy debuted in 2012, injurred his arm in his rookie season, and baseball fans did not see him again until 2016. Bundy has never shown the same stuff as when he debuted and although he has remained in the big leagues for a while, Bundy is nothing more than a # 4 or # 5 starter. Players like Bundy are still valuable but if you ask Orioles fans, there has to be a ton of disappointment with the type of pitcher Bundy became.
How would you describe the 2012 top 10 class?