The Biggest Contracts in Baseball
How are the highest paid players in the game performing in 2021?
My brother and I always have long phone conversations about baseball and the other day we started discussing some of the games biggest contacts. We both felt like there were a lot of injuries to some of the game’s biggest stars. That conversation got me thinking and I decided to research the top 12 largest contracts in all of baseball and see how each player is performing in 2020.
Mike Trout
12 Years / 465 M - signed in 2019
36 Games / .333 / .446 / .624 / 194 wRC+ / 2.3 WAR
Trout is the best player in the game and he is worth every penny. The only knock on Trout is he has been unable to play a full season. Since 2017, the most games he has played in a season is 140 back in 2018. Trout has hardly played this season and he is still feeling something in his calf. It is unclear if he will be able to return for the rest of the 2021 season. The only thing that worries me is his health. When you pay a player like Trout, you need him on the field. Baseball needs their star back on the field.
Mookie Betts
12 Years / 365 M - Signed in 2020
82 Games / .270 / .374 / .502 / 139 wRC+ / 2.9 WAR
Betts had a subpar first half according to his standards but he was red hot right before the break and that hot stretch continued after the break. Betts was hitting .370 in July before going on the IL with a hip problem. It seems like Betts has been dealing with nagging injuries all season long. When he plays, he is dynamic. I have serious questions about how Betts is going to age. What will his game look like when he is 35? 38? Being a Sox fan I loved watching Betts play but I was adamant about the Red Sox not giving him a contract for life. Hopefully there will be many years of good health for the superstar.
Francisco Lindor
10 Years / 341 M - Signed in 2021
88 Games / .228 / .326 / .376 / 98 wRC+ / 1.8 WAR
Lindor’s first season in the Big Apple has not been what many thought it would be. He started off the season with a historically bad April but his numbers got better each month. He was hitting .333 in the month of July before he injured his oblique. What I love about Lindor is even in the midst of his struggles, he did not change his demeanor with the media. He is the ultimate professional. I think Lindor will be fine moving forward but he is someone who I do wonder how well he will age?
Fernando Tatis Jr.
14 Years / 340 M - Signed in 2021
84 Games / .288 / .371 / .641 / 165 wRC+ / 4.5 WAR
If there is ever a time to give a massive 14 year contract, it was when the San Diego Padres locked up Tatis Jr. The new face of baseball is only 22 years old and the Padres will be paying for all of Tatis Jr.’s prime years. When his deal is up, he will be 36 years old, not in his 40s like some of the other deals on this list. Tatis Jr. is the most entertaining player in the game and he is probably the player you would choose if you were starting a team. He is the complete package.
Bryce Harper
13 Years / 330 M - Signed in 2019
77 Games / .288 / .390 / .518 / 143 wRC+ / 2.7 WAR
So far, the Harper contract has been a solid signing. I think the cloud that hangs over Harper is his 2015 MVP season where he had a 9.3 WAR. Many feel he will get back to that level of production. I feel that is extremely unfair. He is a star talent and brings fans into the ballpark. He is also probably the main reason Realmuto wanted to sign with Philly. Harper is only in year 3 of 13 and I am not crazy about paying anyone a large salary in their late 30s unless it’s on a 1 year deal. But so far so good with the Harper signing.
Giancarlo Stanton
13 Years / 325 M - Signed in 2015
78 Games / .260 / .353 / .462 / 128 wRC+ / 0.9 WAR
Stanton’s contract is a disaster. There is just no way around it. He has had a series of injuries during his time with the Yankees and they are afraid to play him in the outfield because they fear he is going to get hurt. Stanton has the ability to hit the ball to the moon but he is a complete guess hitter right now. For a guy who has a hard time staying healthy now, I cannot imagine what he will look like 7 years from now and still in the Yankees lineup. The Stanton trade has Brian Cashman in handcuffs.
Gerrit Cole
9 Years / 324 M - Signed in 2020
20 GS / 125 IP / 10-5 / 2.74 ERA / 28.7 K-BB% / 0.97 WHIP
Gerrit Cole is the definition of an ace. He eats innings and gives you quality efforts start after start. The one thing surrounding Cole has been the foreign substance speculation after Cole had a miserable press conference when asked about using sticky stuff to help grip the baseball. Cole will not be the pitcher he was at the beginning of the season where he had a 1.80 ERA but he is still a true #1 caliber pitcher. The one thing you always wonder about with pitchers who sign big contracts is their health. So far in his career, Cole has shown the ability to stay healthy and take the mound every 5 days. As a Sox fan, you try to come up with small complaints about Cole but honestly, there just aren’t bad things to say about him. He is a great pitcher.
Manny Machado
10 Years / 300 M - Signed in 2019
94 Games / .275 / .355 / .497 / 127 wRC+ / 3.0 WAR
I think Machado is similar to Harper in that so far the deal has been great. Machado is today's Iron Man as he has played at least 156 games since 2015. There is so much value in being able to take the field each day. Unlike Harper, Trout, and Betts, if Machado stays in San Diego for the duration of this contract, he will be 36 when his contract is finished. I can still see Machado being a productive player at 36. Another thing I like about Machado in San Diego is the spotlight is not on him. Everyone is infatuated with Tatis Jr. and rightfully so, but Machado can just fly under the radar and play his game.
Nolan Arenado
8 Years / 260 M - Signed in 2019
97 Games / .261 / .314 / .504 / 118 wRC+ / 2.8 WAR
Arenado got out of the dreadful situation in Colorado after getting completely disrespected by the Rockies ownership. I am glad he landed in a city like St. Louis that loves their baseball. Like Machado, Arenado has been incredibly durable, playing in at least 155 games since 2015. The real question has been how much of Arenado’s success has been linked to Coors Field. His numbers are not quite the same but he is still a very productive player. If Arenado decides to stay in St. Louis, he will be 36 when his contract is up.
Miguel Cabrera
8 Years / 248 M - Signed in 2016
78 Games / .235 / .290 / .343 / 74 wRC+ / -0.9 WAR
The Miguel Cabrea deal has been one of the worst big contracts in the history of the game. Since signing his deal, his season by season WAR looks like the following:
2016: 4.8
2017: -0.2
2018: 0.7
2019: -0.4
2020: 0.3
2021: -0.9
Miggy is a perfect example of why giving contracts to players in their low 30s for what they did in their prime is so dangerous. Cabrera has never been the same since he had an abdominal injury. He also has been primarily a DH for the last few seasons so he provides no value on defense. Miggy’s contract is a direct result of why the Tigers went into a massive rebuild.
Stephen Strasburg
7 Years / 245 M - Signed in 2020
5 GS / 21.2 IP / 1-2 / 4.57 ERA / 7.4 K-BB % / 1.38 WHIP
I was adamant that the Washington Nationals should have let Strasburg walk after their incredible World Series run. There was too much injury history to give him a massive extension. The Nationals gave him a 7 year deal and so far, he has thrown 26.2 innings over the past 2 years. It was announced yesterday that he will be undergoing surgery for neurogenic thoracic outlet syndrome. This is the same injury that knocked Matt Harvey out and he has never been the same. I do not have a lot of confidence we will ever see the Strasburg we saw in the 2019 playoffs. It’s really a shame because Strasburg is must watch TV when he is right.
Anthony Rendon
7 Years / 245 M - Signed in 2020
58 Games / .240 / .329 / .382 / 98 wRC+ / .8 WAR
Rendon is the player I thought the Angels should have kept and signed after their World Series title. I will bet on a position player in their 30’s over a pitcher every day. Unfortunately, this season has been a lost season for Rendon as he has dealt with injuries for most of the year. I am still a believer in Rendon as I love his hit tool. I think the Angels lineup would look very different if they had Trout, Ohtani, and Rendon hitting consecutively. Hopefully Rendon can get healthy and get back on the diamond.
Now, the big contract in baseball is always a risk. I feel like when the player initially signs, you may hear how amazing this is for both parties on MLB Network but it is an enormous risk. Everything has to line up just right in order for an organization to take on a contract like the ones above and have success. Questions like, “What upcoming contracts will the organization need to decide on” and “how is the minor league system” must all be considered. If an organization has a young star that also needs to get paid, it can make it challenging to afford both. And it is important for the organization to have a good farm system because there is a good chance the team cannot afford the top closer on the market to fill a hole. Teams have to either use their farm system to fill holes or dangle their prospects to fill holes.
The biggest risk when signing these massive deals is the health and production of the player towards the end of the contract. The perfect big contract example that worked out for both player and organization is Max Scherzer. The Nationals gave Scherzer a 7 year deal for 210 Million dollars and he has been worth every penny. He has been durable, won 2 CY, and played a huge role in the 2019 title. And the Washington Nationals are about to get a nice package at the Deadline for him. But Scherzer is the exception. It is rare for a big deal to work out for the duration of the contract for both the player and the organization. It is just impossible to predict production and health.
It will be fascinating to watch these big contracts over the next couple of years to see which ones turned out to be beneficial for both sides and which ones turned out to be beneficial for just the player.
Which contract do you think is the best for both player and organization?