The Boston Barometer: Volume 11

Is Craig Breslow actually good at identifying pitching?

If you were to ask somebody what is the one strength of chief baseball officer of the Boston Red Sox Craig Breslow, most likely that person would say, “Identifying pitching talent.” Nobody would say, “Identifying hitters.” However, while Breslow has turned around Boston’s pitching infrastructure and the pitching on the big league roster, he may not be as good at identifying pitching talent that most think he is.

When it comes to drafting and developing pitching talent, Craig Breslow and the system that he has put in place deserves a ton of credit. Developing Connelly Early and Payton Tolle into reliable big league arms in year one is impressive. Both pitchers have substantial upside that could eventually lead to at least one of them leading this Boston rotation in the future. Breslow deserves credit for that.

While I do believe any CBO could have come in and made a trade for Garrett Crochet with Boston’s farm system at the time, Breslow did identify Crochet as the guy to lead the Red Sox rotation for the future. He also identified Aroldis Chapman as someone who they could tweak and get back to being a dominant reliever. And that has worked out brilliantly. While there are other successes or wins in maximizing pitchers, there also have been some misses. Some of the misses have been franchise altering misses.

Let’s start with one of Craig Breslow’s first moves as CBO of the Boston Red Sox. He came in and identified Chris Sale as a guy who needed to get out of Boston and traded him along with a significant amount of money for Vaughn Grissom. In his first season away from the organization, not only was he finally healthy but he was the best pitcher in the National League in 2024.

Photo Credit: Kevin D. Liles/Atlanta Braves / Contributor / Getty Images

29 GS: 177 IP, 2.38 ERA, 11.4 K/9

Sale did something he never did with the Red Sox, which was win the Cy Young Award. For the entire 2024 season, Boston was looking for an ace. It turns out Breslow had one and paid him a lot of money to win a Cy Young for the Braves. To make matters worse, Vaughn Grissom was cut by Boston and is now playing fairly well for the Los Angeles Angels.

The next miss was Nick Pivetta. The Nick Pivetta era in Boston was a frustrating one. There were some ups and some big downs. But the Red Sox were never able to unlock Pivetta’s full potential as he never had an ERA under 4.00 in his tenure with the club. Breslow elected to offer Pivetta a qualifying offer, which he turned down. The Red Sox never appeared interested in working out an extension with Pivetta. He chose to take his talents to San Diego and in his first season with the Padres, Pivetta unlocked that potential that was evident in Boston.

31 GS: 181 IP, 2.87 ERA, 9.4 K/9

Pivetta finished sixth in the Cy Young voting.

Breslow also made a trade early in the 2025 season trading Quinn Priester to the Milwaukee Brewers for two minor leaguers (Neither are in the Red Sox updated top 30 according to Baseball America) and a draft pick. Priester went on to have a great season for the Brewers.

29 G (24 GS): 157 IP, 3.32 ERA, 7.6 K/9

The Red Sox never even gave Priester a shot coming out of Spring Training. The Red Sox ended up looking for pitching at the deadline and settled for Dustin May, who had a 5.40 ERA in 6 games. Pivetta or Priester could have helped the 2025 Boston Red Sox.

Similarly to Quinn Priester, the Red Sox traded Kyle Harrison to the Milwaukee Brewers for Caleb Durbin, Andruw Monasterio, and Anthony Seigler. While the Red Sox rotation has been solid this season, you can’t tell me they couldn’t use a guy like Kyle Harrison. In a loaded NL Cy Young race to start the season with Cristopher Sanchez, Jacob Misiorowski, and once again Chris Sale, Kyle Harrison is right there.

Photo Credit: Patrick McDermott / Contributor / Getty Images

11 GS: 57 IP, 1.57 ERA, 11.5 K/9

Watching another pitcher dominate for the Brewers begs the question, “What are they doing differently that the Red Sox are not doing?” How can they turn two pitchers in two years into very good big league starters and the Red Sox under Craig Breslow couldn’t even let them try to pitch for the big league club. The Harrison trade also burns a little more knowing he was the big piece in the return for Rafael Devers and he wasn’t even in Boston for a calendar year.

An unforgotten man in the Kyle Harrison trade who also went to Milwaukee was Shane Drohan. The Red Sox have been looking for a lefty reliever all season. They are throwing guys like Alec Gamboa and Joe La Sorsa, who was pitching in Triple-A for the Pirates. His first pitch Sunday was a 3-run home run to Jazz Chisholm Jr. Drohan has been really good for the Brewers pitching out of their bullpen.

12 G: 31 IP, 2.87 ERA, 9.5 K/9.

Maybe Breslow didn’t know what he had in Drohan. Or maybe the Brewers just knew how to unlock Drohan so that he could contribute at the big league level.

Maybe the worst error on Craig Breslow’s ledger has been the failure of Brayan Bello. One of the things that Craig Breslow has done as CBO of the Red Sox is extend a lot of the Red Sox young players. Brayan Bello was one of the first players that Breslow extended prior to the 2024 season (6 / $55M). While many can see the talent that Brayan Bello possessed at the time of the extension, the character of the player is what Breslow may have completely forgotten to take into account.

Bello has been unable to control his emotions on the mound. He is rattled easily and struggles to fight when things don’t go his way. Bello has been the worst qualified pitcher in baseball in 2026 and now he is down in Triple-A. The Red Sox still owe Bello $44M over the next 3 seasons. Under Breslow and pitching coach Andrew Bailey’s watch, Brayan Bello has regressed significantly. His best pitch, the change up, is no longer his best pitch. And more noticeably, Bello has lost all of his confidence.

Too Many Misses?

While every GM or CBO is going to have a few misses, Craig Breslow has had some massive misses in his two and a half years with the Red Sox. With the team significantly underperforming in year three, you have to question if he is the right guy for the job. With an inability to build a productive lineup, his judgment deserves to be questioned regarding pitching as well.

With all of the articles that were released last week suggesting he struggles with communication and that there is frustration with how he is running the organization, it’s hard to picture things turning around. It’s also difficult to see how the Red Sox can stick with him as the main shot caller for the organization when the organization is in free fall.