The Boston Barometer: Volume 14
Do the Red Sox have some momentum?
The Red Sox are in the midst of their best stretch of baseball this season. After an exhilarating and shocking 4-game sweep of the New York Yankees, the Sox are 7-3 in their last 10 games. This stretch doesn’t change the outlook on the rest of the season because when you are 14 games under .500, a 7-3 stretch barely moves the needle. However, there are a few things worth pointing out about this club and maybe they are finally catching some momentum.
Elite Starting Pitching
The starting rotation has been one of the consistent pieces on this team that has been consistently inconsistent. Over this stretch of 10 games, the Red Sox have gotten incredible starting pitching. Every outing saw a starter go at least 6 innings.
6/19: Suarez vs Seattle: 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
6/20: Early vs Seattle: 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
6/21: Tolle vs Seattle: 6 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
6/22: Bennett vs Colorado: 6 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
6/23: Gray vs Colorado: 7 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
6/24: Suarez vs Colorado: 6 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
6/25: Early vs New York: 6 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
6/26: Tolle vs New York: 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
6/27: Bennett vs New York: 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
6/28: Gray vs New York: 7.1 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Over those 10 starts, the Red Sox starters are averaging 6.4 innings per start and are pitching to a 1.26 ERA. They are also striking out 9.98 batters per 9 innings. While expecting the rotation to keep up this insane pace is not realistic, it’s worth admiring the run.
Photo Credit: Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox / Contributor / Getty Images
Another impressive aspect of this 10-game run is that 6 out of the 10 starts have been made by a rookie starter. Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, and Jake Bennett are not pitching like this is their first full season in the big leagues. They are making adjustments on the fly and when they have a tough inning, they regroup and find a way to give the team a quality start.
Rookie pitchers don’t typically do what the 3 rookies in the Red Sox rotation are doing. If you look at a few of the rookie pitchers around the league that were at the top of the prospect lists, they haven’t been nearly as consistent as the Boston rookies.
Bubba Chandler: #7 in 2025
16 G: 79 IP | 4.42 ERA | 5.22 BB/9 | 8.28 K/9
Andrew Painter: #9 in 2025
14 G: 65 IP | 7.06 ERA | 3.32 BB/9 | 7.34 K/9
Noah Schultz: #10 in 2025
8 GS: 38 IP | 5.82 ERA | 5.12 BB/9 | 7.68 K/9
These prospects were viewed as the next elite group of starters. While they still can become front of the rotation arms, they haven’t looked anything like that to start their big league careers. Chandler and Schultz have legitimate command concerns and Painter struggled so much that he is back in Triple-A.
Red Sox fans should really appreciate what they are witnessing. These three rookies are helping lead this struggling team and they have been pretty consistent all season long.
Payton Tolle
12 G: 71 IP | 2.78 ERA | 2.52 BB/9 | 8.71 K/9
Connelly Early
16 G: 87 IP | 3.59 ERA | 3.29 BB/9 | 9.03 K/9
Jake Bennett
6 G: 33 IP | 3.27 ERA |1.91 BB/9 | 6.82 K/9
While there will undoubtedly be some ups and downs with these 3 rookies over the final 3 months, this rotation has a bright future with the collection of arms they have compiled. It may be the most left-handed dominant rotation I have ever seen but that’s a conversation for another day. If the Red Sox are going to go on a run at some point over the next couple of weeks, the starting rotation will be carrying the team.
Photo Credit: Jaiden Tripi / Stringer / Getty Images
A Softer Schedule to the All-Star Break
These last 3 series have been Boston’s best stretch of baseball all season (7-3). Over the final 2 weeks of the first half, the Red Sox have a softer part of their schedule. Can they carry over the momentum from the past 10 days and head into the break like they did last season? Here’s the next 12 games.
vs Nationals (3)
@ Angels (3)
@ White Sox (3)
@ Mets (3)
Boston will play 6 of their next 12 games against 2 of the worst teams in baseball. The Mets are tied with the Giants for the second fewest wins in the NL. The Angels have the second fewest wins in the AL. While the Red Sox have just 1 more win than the Angels, if they want to climb back into the Wild Card race they must take advantage of playing these bad baseball teams.
The White Sox and Nationals are two teams that will be tough. The White Sox are the surprise team of the season as they have the fourth most wins in the AL and are tied for the division lead in the AL Central. The White Sox are a team that lives and dies by the long ball as they have hit the second most home runs in baseball. Chicago has 45 more home runs than the Red Sox.
The Nationals present a similar challenge as the White Sox. They hit a lot of home runs (4 fewer than the White Sox) and they lead baseball in runs scored. The majority of baseball fans may only be able to name 1-2 of the Nationals position players however they have 4 players with an .850+ OPS+.
In theory, the White Sox and Nationals should be a good matchup for the Red Sox. The strength of Boston is their pitching. If they keep pitching like they have over the last 10 games, they should be able to slow down the high powered attack of both the White Sox and Nationals. Chicago and Washington both struggle with their pitching staffs as the Nationals rank 25th in team ERA and the White Sox rank 18th. For a Red Sox offense that has struggled for much of the season to score, maybe they can take advantage of two pitching staffs that are below average.
Replicating 2025?
Last year, Boston went on a 10-game winning streak to end the first half. That win streak changed the Sox’s season and catapulted them into the postseason. Do the 2026 Red Sox have another crazy run to end the first half this season in them? If they have any desire to get back in the race and climb back to .500, this is the stretch they have to do it. It’s go time.