The Boston Barometer: Volume 16
What a wild first half it has been in Boston.
The Boston Red Sox finished the first half of the 2026 season just like they finished the first half of the 2025 season. Last season Boston went on 10-game winning streak into the break and that run really propelled their season. This year they go into the break on a 9-game winning streak and winners of 14 of their last 16 to get them back into the Wild Card race. Will this impressive stretch of baseball propel them into a big second half?
Playoff odds entering Sunday
If you can let your mind wonder back to the winter, you may remember that Craig Breslow talked about run prevention being the identity of the 2026 Boston Red Sox after they failed to sign Alex Bregman and pivoted to Ranger Suarez. While that strategy did not work through the first 14 weeks of the season, things have begun to flip over the last 2-3 weeks. Since June 17th, Boston has the lowest team ERA in baseball (2.63) and their pitchers have the highest fWAR in the sport (4.9). To go along with their elite pitching, their defense has been spectacular, and it’s led to winning. They are 17-7 in that stretch and the vibes are completely different.
Offensively, the lineup has taken a giant leap forward over the last couple of weeks. Since June 23rd, they have scored the 10th most runs and have the 12th best wRC+ (109 wRC+). Now this is significant because it’s not like the Red Sox lineup became a top 3 lineup in the sport. However, they became an average lineup and paired that with their elite pitching and elite defense and it’s led to winning.
As a Red Sox fan, this stretch has been a pleasant surprise. Just 18 days ago the Red Sox had the worst record in the American League at 32-46 and were 6 games out of the final Wild Card spot. This two and a half week run has reset the Red Sox season and given them a clean slate heading into the second half of the season. However, I am trying to keep things into perspective.
In this stretch, they have played a banged up Yankees team, the worst team in the AL (Angels) and the second worst team in the NL (Mets). That’s not to take away from what they have accomplished over the last few weeks but I believe this perspective is important. It’s not like the Red Sox have won 14 out of 16 against the top teams in the sport. It’s not to say they can’t but through the first 3 and a half months of the 2026 season, Red Sox fans just haven’t seen it.
The nice thing for this pesky Red Sox group is they will get the chance to do it right out of the break. The Red Sox will face three division opponents in what will be their longest homestand of the season.
4 vs Rays
3 vs Orioles
3 vs Blue Jays
The Red Sox were a combined 5-13 against these 3 teams in the first half. The first homestand of the second half will be a great opportunity to show not just Red Sox Nation but every baseball fan that this strong stretch before the break was not just a fluke but that they have turned a corner as a team. It’s also an opportunity for this group to turn things around at Fenway Park. Boston was 17-27 at Fenway Park in the first half.
For me, I am a law of averages guy. Typically, things tend to even out the way they historically do. If you look at the Red Sox record over the last 10 years including the first half of this year at home, it doesn’t typically look like it currently does.
The Red Sox are typically hovering around .500 or are way over .500 at Fenway Park. However, with all data sets there are always outliers. I am hoping that 2026 is not one of those outliers but one where the Red Sox have some positive regression back to the norm. Even if the Red Sox can finish the season 38-43 at home, which matches their worst season at home over the last decade excluding the Covid shortened season, that would mean Boston would go 21-16 at home for the rest of the season. Playing better at Fenway Park is one of the keys to the Red Sox making the playoffs this season.
Give Credit Where Credit is Due
Red Sox manager Chad Tracy deserves a ton of credit for the job he has done with this team. He took over a terrible situation after Alex Cora was fired and things did not get off to a great start like they did for Phillies manager Don Mattingly. The injury bug has decimated this roster as they have been without their two most talented players for the majority of the season (Roman Anthony and Garrett Crochet). Story, Mayer, Suarez, and Early are all on the IL and Willson Contreras is suspended. There were a handful of players underperforming. So much has gone wrong and despite all of that Tracy has stayed calm and guided this team to get back on track.
Tracy is managing for his job. Craig Breslow has not committed to Tracy past this season. Yesterday Tracy came out and said he would love to be the Red Sox full-time manager. He is making one hell of case right now.
Looking to the 2nd Half
After what was the most bizarre first half I can remember watching as a Red Sox fan, I truly do not know what to expect in the second half. With the Red Sox just 0.5 game back of a Wild Card spot, you would think they would try and add to this roster. However, the value of Aroldis Chapman and Sonny Gray could be through the roof that the Red Sox decide and play the middle ground and do some buying and some selling. If you’re a Red Sox fan, prepare for absolutely anything. Just ride the waves.