The Boston Barometer: Volume 18

Another strong week has the Red Sox being the first buyers of the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline.

Every Red Sox fan was wondering how the team would come out of the All-Star break and respond after a great end to the first half. Unlike the last couple of years, the 2026 Boston Red Sox made a statement that they are for real in the American League.

The Red Sox entered a crucial 10-game home stand against the AL East. 8-2 is exactly the record that they needed to keep the momentum going. Since the start of the Yankees series at the end of June, the Red Sox are 4-0 in series against the AL East with a record of 12-2. It’s a big change from the first couple of months when the Red Sox were 6-17 against the AL East. This crucial stretch has put them in real contention for the second half.

As a Red Sox fan, what impresses me the most is how the Red Sox offense has drastically improved situational hitting. This group has committed to moving runners with sacrifice bunts and finding ways to drive the runners in either with sac flies or timely hits. It’s helped take their offense from a bottom five run producing offense to the 8th best run producing offense in the month of July. This offense now adds Curtis Mead to go along with a strong pitching staff and an elite defense. They have a real formula for winning.

Let’s break down some of the important developments over the last couple of days.

Bennett’s Breakout Made Early Expendable

Prior to Saturday’s trade involving Connelly Early, I was planning on having a segment in this piece that compared Early and Jake Bennett. Which starter should the Red Sox keep and which starter should the Red Sox be willing to part with? That decision was made for Red Sox fans as Connelly Early was traded in a 1-1 deal for the Nationals’ Curtis Mead.

It’s crazy what a couple of months can do. Back in March, if you would have told me that Jake Bennett could be used to acquire a breakout bat that is 34% better than league average like Mead is, I think every Red Sox fan would have been ecstatic. However, Bennett has broke out in such a way that made Craig Breslow and the front office believe that he is the guy to keep over Connelly Early, who the Red Sox were hesitant to include in deals in last year’s deadline and over the off-season.

For me, I think it came down to the advanced metrics liking Bennett more than Early.

Bennett’s Savant on the Left, Early’s Savant on the right

While Early was terrific to end last season in a small sample and solid this year, there are a few concerns. It’s just a fact that opposing hitters have a better feel against Early this season.

2025 - 19.1 IP, 1.086 WHIP, 0.91 FIP, 36.7 K%, .243 SLUG

2026 - 91.2 IP, 1.255 WHIP, 4.62 FIP, 23.8 K%, .401 SLUG

When you pair those numbers with Early’s 1.5 HR/9, I think the Red Sox had their justification. Bennett’s elite extension and ability to limit hard contact is something the Red Sox just couldn’t pass on.

Ultimately, the Red Sox will have difficult decisions to make with their pitchers. There are only 5 spots available in the rotation and there are a lot of options. Craig Breslow said today he must use some of the surplus of pitching talent to fill some of the needs on the big league roster. The Early trade is an example of trading a young, controllable starter for a young, controllable bat.

Thoughts on Curtis Mead

The Mead for Early trade is just another example of Craig Breslow working in the shadows. Mead was not on anyone’s radar as a potential target but he does solve some of the Red Sox issues. Mead is a RH power bat. In 87 games this season, Mead is slashing .254 | .352 | .500 with 17 HRs and 48 RBIs.

Mead would have the second most home runs on the Sox roster behind Willson Contreras. Mead immediately gives the Red Sox a huge upgrade at second base, a position where the Red Sox have been 10% worse than league average. It’s difficult to find elite production at second base. Mead would lead all second baseman with a 134 wRC+, which is 6 points higher than Brice Turang.

Many who are not a fan of the deal point to the fact that prior to Mead’s last 4 months, he was nothing more than a 74 OPS+ in 152 career games. There’s no guarantee that the current version of Curtis Mead is the one the Red Sox will get. While there is risk with Mead, it’s possible that the 25-year-old infielder has finally figured out his swing at the big league level. Mead is a former top 35 prospect in baseball according to Baseball America back in 2023. When you look back at his scouting report, the tools were always there.

While it took Mead 3 different organizations to figure out his game, a 70 hit tool with 60 power is something you don’t see often with prospects. It’s possible that Mead is finally living up to his prospect hype. Craig Breslow and the Red Sox are betting on it. Mead now adds to this young Red Sox core as the 25-year-old will have 4 years of team control past 2026.

How to use the remaining assets?

While I try and remain objective on the Mead and Early trade, I do like how Craig Breslow managed to upgrade the lineup in a significant way without trading away anyone on the current 26-man roster. Breslow also did not part with any prospect capital. This leaves the Red Sox with the opportunity to make another addition without completely depleting the farm system.

One domino effect from the Curtis Mead trade is it creates a bit of a logjam in the middle infield. The Red Sox now have Mead, Romy Gonzalez, Trevor Story, Andruw Monasterio, Marcelo Mayer, and top prospect Franklin Arias as potential options. All of them cannot be on the big league roster at the same time, especially heading into 2027. While Trevor Story only has 1 more year of team control past this season, I could see a trade coming from this group. It feels like Marcelo Mayer could be the odd man and dealt to acquire another bat.

The other position of need in the Red Sox lineup is catcher. Connor Wong and Carlos Narváez have been one of the worst running producing duos in the sport. Craig Breslow could look to upgrade at catcher and Mayer could be one of the key pieces to get a deal done.

One of the dream targets for many Red Sox fans, myself included, was Shea Langeliers. Unfortunately that will not be happening with Langeliers going on the IL with a meniscus tear that will likely cost him the rest of 2026. Could Hunter Goodman, Ryan Jeffers, or maybe even a surprise catcher like Francisco Alvarez be a possible trade target for the Red Sox?

Up Next

The Red Sox now head back out to the west coast for their final west coast trip of the season. Boston has 4 games against the A’s and 3 games against the Dodgers. Everyone will naturally focus their attention on the Dodgers but the A’s series is the important one. The A’s are in a downward spiral as they have lost 15 of their last 19 games. This is a struggling team that the Red Sox must take advantage of. If the Red Sox can go to Sacramento and get a series win, the Dodgers are a great test for how this young Red Sox team matches up against a true World Series contender.

Just 7 more days until the August 3rd Trade Deadline.