The Boston Barometer: Volume 7
1 step forward, 1 step back.
While the Red Sox had a successful quick road trip in Detroit, they once again struggled to score at home against the Rays. The Tampa Bay series was a litmus test for where this team is. The Rays came into this series on fire and at the top of the division. The series with the Rays showed the brand of baseball that the Red Sox need to play, which is small ball. The issue is the Rays are significantly better at playing this style of baseball than the Red Sox.
With a 3-3 week, the Red Sox are no closer to .500 than they were last Sunday. Let’s break down the good and the bad.
The Good
The Running Red Sox
Everybody wanted to see what would be different between the Alex Cora led Red Sox and the Chad Tracy led Red Sox. One big difference is Tracy clearly wants the Red Sox to push the envelope on the base paths. The Red Sox have 16 stolen bases in 13 games under Tracy, which ranks second in baseball since Tracy took over as manager. The Red Sox only had 16 stolen bases in the 27 games managed by Alex Cora. The offense is struggling to consistently create rallies with multiple hits in an inning. Stealing bases allows the Boston offensive attack to get runners into scoring position without multiple hits.
One thing that we have seen in the past is Jarren Duran get off to a hot start stealing bases and then it tapers off as the season goes on. In the past there was concern that the stealing would fatigue a guy like Duran over 162. With the surplus of outfielders in the Boston outfield, that should not be the thought process now. The Red Sox should be stealing all the time and if a guy like Duran needs a day off, then give him one.
Elite Defense
Photo Credit: Jaiden Tripi / Stringer / Getty Images
The Red Sox were built on run prevention and despite a rough week or two to start the season, the Boston defense has really been strong. Coming into play on Sunday, they led baseball with 32 defensive runs saved, which was 7 more than the Dodgers in second. Willson Contreras is tied for the lead at first base with 4 DRS. Caleb Durbin is second among third baseman with 6. Wilyer Abreu, Roman Anthony, and Jarren Duran are all in the top 13 among outfielders. It’s a welcome sight after a bunch of subpar defensive seasons.
The Bad
The Offense Really Hasn’t Changed
Coming into Sunday, there really isn’t a difference in what the Red Sox hitters are producing since the coaching changes.
With Chad Tracy: .237 / .318 / .352 / 22.2% K / 9% BB
With Alex Cora: .233 / .313 / .354 / 22.5% K / 8.8 BB
You can look deeper at the numbers and see that since the coaching change the zone contact numbers are better and they aren’t swinging and missing as much. However, eventually the results are the results. It’s still roughly the same group of players and it’s a group that struggles to consistently score. It’s a young group so the hope is that their young hitters gain confidence and begin to figure things out. But for those who thought that former hitting coach Pete Fatse was the problem, that just isn’t true.
Another huge issue with this offense right now is their inability to score at home. They rank 29th in runs scored at home, which is hard to fathom when they play at Fenway Park. They have only hit 9 home runs in 18 games.
This roster is not built in a way to take advantage of the hitter friendly ballpark in Fenway Park. It’s a big reason why they are 7-12 at home.
Bullpen Arms that Don’t Belong
It’s tough to really knock the Boston bullpen because the unit has the sixth best ERA in baseball. However, there are few pitchers in the group that do not belong in this group based on their performance. The first guy who should be sent down is Greg Weissert. While Weissert was solid last year, this year he has struggled to keep the ball in the ballpark (2.5 HR/9) and he is terrible at stranding runners. Sending Weissert down isn’t a death sentence. Let him figure things out and when someone goes down, bring him back up.
Photo Credit: Maddie Meyer / Staff / Getty Images
The other name that doesn’t belong is Ryan Watson. The Rule-5 pick is just not cutting it out of the bullpen. He doesn’t have swing and miss stuff (6.5 K/9) and he allows too many base runners (1.64 WHIP). Watson has a 6.46 ERA in 15 games. While removing him from the big league roster will send him back to the Giants based on how the Rule-5 draft works, it’s clear that he is not a big league caliber arm right now. And the Red Sox cannot afford to waste a roster spot letting someone continue to develop at the big league level. Not every Rule-5 pick will turn out to be Garrett Whitlock or Justin Slaten.
Panic or Patience
Trevor Story
Didn’t we do this last May? It’s Déjà vu all over again in a bad way. Trevor Story is hitting just .200 with a .520 OPS. We are well past the “It’s early” conversation. Story is just not getting it done. The swing decisions are terrible (48% O-Swing%). The contact is just not what it was compared to last season (EV down 2 mph, maxEV down 2 mph). Yes, Story was awful last May (19 OPS+) and rebounded to still hit 25 home runs and drive in 96 runs. However, just because it happened last year does not mean the Red Sox should bank on it again. At age 33, maybe Story has lost a step. Panic
Up Next
The Red Sox have a tough week ahead of them as they will take on two NL East opponents. First, they will take on the underachieving Philadelphia Phillies. While the Phillies may have a bad record, they have played better since they fired Rob Thomson. The Phillies have won 7 of their last 10 games. Luckily, Boston will miss Cristopher Sanchez, who pitched in Sunday’s game. After the Phillies series, the Red Sox will travel to Atlanta to take on baseball’s best team. I don’t love the idea of Boston playing a desperate team and a hot team in the same week.