The Path for the Red Sox at the Deadline

Heading into the final 3 series before the All-Star break, what is the path for the Red Sox come the Trade Deadline?

The Red Sox have a path in front of them that could set them up to be buyers at the Trade Deadline. They have managed to take a series from the Reds and if they played a better brand of baseball, they could have swept the series. They need as many wins as they can get. The path to success is the next three series against the Nationals, Rockies, and Rays before the All-Star break. The Red Sox are 9-4 at Fenway Park in their last 13 games and the final two series are at home. If they can keep the momentum going at home, they could head into the break in position to make noise in the second half.

However, that path that is in front of them will not remain as easy when the break is over. Coming out of the break, you’ll see what this team is truly made of. The Sox will have three series in a row against the Cubs, Phillies, and Dodgers. Those are the elite of the elite in the National League. What will the front office intend to do after that important stretch? I wonder what the team’s record has to be or how many games out from a playoff spot they need to be in order to be buyers.

Let’s dive into it.

The Approach at the Deadline

There is reason to believe that they should not punt on the season. Yes, it felt that way when the front office pulled the trigger early and traded their best bat in Rafael Devers. Since the trade, they have been the third worst offense in baseball and if not for the Cleveland Guardians being inept at creating offense, they would’ve been last in the American League. However, this team went on to rattle off 15 runs against the Blue Jays and then 13 off the Reds. There is potential in this group, but the fact of the matter is they do need more. Sam Kennedy spoke during the finale of the Reds game and touched on his group.

“I don’t think you can say that when Raffy Devers leaves the middle of your lineup, that specific move makes you better... We made the move for baseball reasons that were necessary. We’re confident in the group that we have.”

The confident part in my eyes is that Masataka Yoshida and Alex Bregman will be making their returns to the lineup. And while they are two hitters that can definitely impact this lineup in a positive way, the team was mediocre with Bregman in the fold. There is a path to the playoffs as October baseball needs to be played at Fenway Park again. But based on current circumstances, the front office should consider selling and buying because this Red Sox team has not shown the ability to play consistent winning baseball that warrants a full buying approach.

The goal should be to sell pieces that they don’t think they will be bringing back next season. This doesn’t even include the conversation of trading Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu. Walker Buehler should be on the move if he can put together a few competent starts over the next couple of weeks. Any contending team that needs a veteran arm to get them to the playoffs and eat innings could look to the Red Sox. For whatever the reason, Buehler hasn’t worked in Boston but he does have a ton of postseason success. Also, they certainly field offers on Aroldis Chapman. Teams will look at Chapman’s numbers and his underlying numbers and be very intrigued.

At age 37, Chapman has been one of the best closers in baseball. He has managed to drop his walk rate 6.6% and still packs a mean punch with the velocity and is excelling at getting batters to chase and whiff. He has yet to give us an “Aroldis Chapman moment” in a bad way, which is typically when he loses command. Chapman has enormous value for a contender. Hello Dave Dombrowski.

There is the potential that they could deal Lucas Giolito as well. He does have a club option at the end of the season and he has been pitching sensationally well over the last three starts, having a 0.72 ERA in that span. It’s been up and down for him this year, but it’s clicking right now and his trade stock is rising. However, he does want to stay. The Red Sox should be blown away in order to pull the trigger on a trade involving Giolito.

Trading away the team’s impending free agents, who are the team’s veteran presence, will make winning down the stretch difficult. If Breslow feels that keeping a pitcher like Giolito on the roster because he will help the team down the stretch, then he should keep him, especially with him having a club option for next season if he throws under 140 innings. Whether they trade Giolito with the others or now, the team also needs to be buyers.

Trading Devers was not wise if winning was the goal in 2025 but fans are not in that office or clubhouse. However, what you did see with the Devers return was players that are going to be here beyond 2025. At the deadline, Boston can be buyers and be aggressive and get players that help for 2025, but also in 2026 and beyond. They’ve identified Kyle Harrison as that type of player they are looking for, someone with team control. They also have Jordan Hicks, who could take over the closer role if they move Chapman at the deadline. Craig Breslow has no business buying players that are pure rentals that they know they will not extend if it means spending significant prospect capital.

Whatever assets they receive in a trade, they could potentially use to go out and acquire players. This team is filled with youth and the goal now is to build around Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, Kristian Campbell, and Garrett Crochet. This team has pieces, but they currently lack depth. The farm system is not nearly as strong if you remove the big 3 from being potential trade assets. Acquiring more prospects would help make it easier to make trades in the future.

Craig Breslow and Co. have a lot of work to do and it’ll be interesting to see how they approach this deadline and how they go about investing in this team. We’ve seen this story before, where they got hot in June, went into the break feeling good, and then they come out of the gates slowly in the second half. Craig Breslow must remember that the Trade Deadline is an opportunity to improve the current roster and the future roster.