The Sasaki Sweepstakes

Where will the young phenom from Japan end up?

Photo Credit: Eugene Hoshiko / Associated Press

Let the sales pitches begin. For the second winter in a row, a Japanese phenom pitcher will be posted. Last year, it was Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who became the highest paid pitcher in MLB history. Now, it’s Rōki Sasaki’s turn, who has even more hype than Yamamoto, and there will be plenty of suitors. 

Executives around the league believe that the potential landing spots are the Dodgers, Padres, Yankees, Mets, and Cubs. Potentially in the mix are the Red Sox. Boston has some work to do if they want an opportunity to make the perfect sales pitch just to have a shot to land him. 

Sasaki has earned the hype.

When you think of the best Japanese pitchers to come to America and pitch, you probably think of names like Hideo Nomo, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Yu Darvish, and Masahiro Tanaka. All of those names came over to pitch in Major League Baseball after they turned 25. Shohei Ohtani was the only one to come at a younger age at the age of 23. Now, Rōki Sasaki is trying to join Ohtani as a 23 year-old trying to make a name for himself in the best baseball league in the world. 

Sasaki looks like the real deal and has the potential of being a frontline starter. Sasaki has been tremendous for Chiba Lotte as his numbers jump off of the page. He has excelled at the highest level of Japanese Baseball. Sasaki dominated the competition, and finished his tenure with the club with a 2.02 ERA in 69 games. One thing he excelled in was strikeouts as he averaged 11.4 K/9. He also did a great job of limiting walks as he averaged just 2.0 BB/9. Strikeouts with a low walk rate is a terrific combo and shows how talented he is. While he has the numbers, his arsenal of pitches is what really impresses. 

Sasaki has three pitches he relies on. He has the fastball, splitter, and slider. He has seen his four seam fastball reach up to 102 MPH. Fans everywhere are in awe. When players like Emmanuel Clase, Mason Miller, or Aroldis Chapman throw 100, it’s only in one inning of work. Sasaki is doing it for multiple innings. While that velocity is enormous, he did see a dip in his fastball velocity last season, as it dropped to 96.8 MPH on average. If he can maintain or increase his fastball velocity in MLB will be something to keep an eye on wherever he decides to take his talents. 

Sasaki also works in a splitter that generates a 57% whiff rate while also mixing in his slider. Both pitches are above average and are able to compliment his high velocity fastball. It is rare for a 23 year-old to have elite command like Sasaki does. This is a player every team should covet in their organization. However, there are also concerns, which are completely justifiable. 

The velocity dropping on his pitches is something. Is it serious? Probably not. But it’s worth noting that there was a drop compared to the previous season. Also, the transition from pitching in Japan to America. In Japan, starters pitch once a week whereas in MLB they pitch every fifth day. Where pitchers can get more rest over in Japan, they cannot escape the wear and tear that causes fatigue in baseball in America. We’ve seen players such as Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Kodai Senga sustain injuries that have kept them out for significant time. Those injuries could have just been the dangers that come with pitching but you have to wonder if the adjustment to pitching more often is the cause. Then you look at Shota Imanaga, who was a candidate for NL rookie of the year last year, and he was great for the Cubs rotation all season long (2.91 ERA in 29 starts). The adjustment will be something to watch, but should not deter any team from signing him. 

For the Red Sox, this is a no-brainer decision to bring him in and they should put forth maximum effort. It is not everyday that a 23 year-old pitcher becomes a free agent on the open market. In fact, it almost never happens. With the Red Sox front office taking on a new model and trying to get younger, Sasaki fits in perfectly with their young core at AAA about to break into the league. The Red Sox do not have a possible ace in their farm system so Sasaki presents an opportunity to be that guy in the organization. 

Everyone has preached pitching and that this team needs pitching. The Red Sox have a nice rotation mainly of 3s and 4s. This offseason, they don’t need more middle of the rotation arms. They need someone who could potentially start game 1 of a playoff series. It’s something the fans and media have harped on, but even Red Sox alumni. At the Pedro Martinez gala event, former players spoke on the topic. Not only Pedro, but also Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek. The common theme? Pitching. 

“It always starts with pitching with me,” said Varitek. “I think historically, it has always shown that that [true No. 1 pitcher] has been a valuable lead to the team. From David [Price] to [Chris] Sale to Pedro [Martinez] to [Curt] Schilling and [Josh Beckett] at one point; when you have people like that at the top of rotation, it makes the rest of the rotation better.”

That came from Varitek, who is in the dugout and with the team constantly. He knows this firsthand from playing on winning teams that had elite rotations. A 23 year-old not only fits the mold of what the Red Sox are trying to build, but gives them a legitimate ace for the foreseeable future. Could there be growing pains early? Absolutely. But betting on a 23 year-old seems a lot safer than betting on one of the free agent starting pitchers who are 29 or 30. 

Money won’t be the big issue in this contract negotiation because he will be signing a similar deal to the one that Shohei Ohtani signed because Sasaki is not 25 years-old. Given that he doesn’t have enough service time, there is a cap on his contract and it will come down to international signing money. Listed below are the amounts that each team has to spend heading into 2025:

 So it’s time to recruit and make a sales pitch. It’s unclear what Sasaki values the most. Does he want a contender? Does he want a small market team he can help get over the hump? For the Red Sox, they’ll have to sell him on the vision not only for what he can bring, but for where this team will go with him in the fold. Currently, Boston is not listed as one of the teams in the mix and it’s unclear if they will be able to work their way into the mix. 

Call Koji Uehara. Call Dice-K. Call everyone and anyone. Find a way to secure a meeting with Sasaki and make the best sales pitch possible for him to want to play in Boston. Fenway Park has a rich tradition and he can be part of that.