The Ups and Downs of Brayan Bello

2025 was an important season for Brayan Bello. In his first two years in the big leagues, he has shown flashes of being a really good starting pitcher but he has not been able to be consistent. The hope was that Bello would take a big step forward this season and cement himself behind Garrett Crochet in the Red Sox rotation. Bello is statistically having the best year of his career (3.41 ERA), however he is still searching for consistency.

Bello’s 2025 was delayed due to a shoulder injury at the very beginning of Spring Training. The 26 year-old right hander got off to a good start when he made his season debut as he 2.55 ERA through his first 3 starts. While the surface numbers appeared to be good, the expected stats did not match the actual production. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) was 5.63 after those three starts, which suggests Bello was extremely lucky. Bello only had a 6.05 K/9 while having a 3.75 BB/9. Bello’s formula early on was not a recipe for sustained success.

The recipe remained the same for Bello in the starts that followed but the results quickly changed. Over his next five starts, Bello struggled as he was unable to successfully work out of the trouble he put himself in. In those five starts, Bello failed to pitch five innings in all five starts. He had a 4.96 ERA with a 5.99 BB/9. Now, only one of those starts did Bello give up more than three earned runs but the inability to work deep into the game cost his team as the bullpen had to cover a lot of innings to complete the game. For a player who is entering his third full season in the show, the Red Sox and their fans expect more.

Then, the calendar flipped to June and it’s like we saw a completely different Brayan Bello. In June, Bello threw at least six innings in each of his five starts and had a 2.87 ERA. The expected numbers supported the success as Bello’s FIP during that stretch was 3.65. Bello had a few starts where he struck out eight and six and he had three starts where he walked two or fewer. The command was better and the ability to keep the pitch count under control allowed Bello to work deep into the games.

Bello’s last start in June may have been the one that impressed me the most. It was clear from the first inning against the Blue Jays that Bello didn’t have it. Bello struggled with his command and the Blue Jays were not fooled by anything that Bello was throwing. Through 3 innings, the Blue Jays had 7 hits, 2 walks, and 3 runs. It looked like Bello was not long for the game as his pitch count was in the upper 60s. In starts in the past where Bello clearly did not have his best stuff, Bello could not find his way out and the starts would get away from him. But that didn’t happen against the Blue Jays.

Bello battled despite not missing bats. He settled down and retired nine of his last eleven hitters in quick fashion and made it through six innings without allowing any more runs. Bello had only one strikeout in the game but he let his sinker work and he record five ground ball outs in the final three innings. It was a sign of maturity as Bello was able to flip the script in the middle of his start. If you go back to one of his starts in May against the Braves, the same thing happened. However, Bello was unable to figure things out during that start and he gave up seven runs in only 4.1 innings. The Toronto start showed a certain level of maturity.

Obviously, Red Sox Nation wants to see Bello have his good stuff more often than not. But pitchers will have outings where things don’t go there way and they have to battle. Growing up, I was a huge Jon Lester fan. Throughout Lester’s Red Sox tenure, he struggled early in games with his pitch count. He would be at 65 pitches in the 3rd inning but almost always seemed to manage to get through 6 innings somehow. It’s a sign of a good pitcher when they can get outs without their best stuff and make adjustments in the middle of the game. Bello was able to do that in his last start and it’s a sign of hopefully things to come.

Bello will take the mound today in the suspended game from last night. The Red Sox will get a 27th player for the roster for the night game, which could be the Red Sox debut of Kyle Harrison. In the game that Bello will pitch, the game will pick back up in the top of the 4th with the Red Sox leading 2-1. I look for Bello to attack hitters like he did in the final 3 innings in his start against the Blue Jays. Watching a young pitcher like Bello take the next steps in his career is one of my favorite things about the game of baseball. Hopefully, Bello is at the top of his game and sets the tone for what is an important day for the Red Sox.