As the off-season continues, so do my top 10 position rankings. I started with the top 10 catchers about 10 days ago, which you can view here.
My plan is to go around the diamond stopping at each position making first base the next position group we focus on. With my top 10 rankings, I mainly look at the last 2 seasons weighing 2022 the most to create the list.
The first base position group is strong and ranking the top of the list may be more about personal preference than being able to back it up with clear, concrete evidence. 2 of the first basemen on this list have won the NL MVP in 2 of the last 3 seasons proving just how good the top of this list is compared to the rest of the league. In order to qualify for this list, a player needed to play at least 50% of his games at the position in 22’. If you lose hours and hours on Fangraphs like I do, you will see that Minnesota’s Luis Arraez is on Fangraphs’ first base list but he did play less than 50% of his games at the position, therefore he does not qualify. Arraez would fit perfectly on a super utility list.
As always, please feel free to comment and leave your top 10 rankings in the comment section. Now, let’s dive into the top 10 first basemen heading into the 2023 season.
10. Anthony Rizzo
2022: .224 / .338 / .480 / 133 wRC+ / 2.4 fWAR / -3.6 BsR / -3 DRS
2-Year Range: .236 / .341 / .459 / 123 wRC+ / 4.5 fWAR / -5.4 BsR / -9 DRS
Anthony Rizzo’s career looked like it was heading in the wrong direction and then he was blessed to get traded to a team that plays in Yankee Stadium. Rizzo’s swing was built to take advantage of the short porch in right field as he hit 32 home runs last season, which tied his career high at the age of 33. I am not a huge fan of players who have a batting average of .224 but Rizzo’s ability to draw walks (10.4 % BB-rate) makes him a real offensive weapon. I also think the shift limitations could open up the right side of the infield for Rizzo to find some more hits. It’s possible that Rizzo could have gotten a longer deal somewhere else but player’s who identify a team that will maximize their success deserve a lot of credit. Rizzo has set himself up for another big season in 2023.
9. Ty France
2022: .274 / .338 / .436 / 126 wRC+ / 2.4 fWAR / -2.8 BsR / 2 DRS
2-Year Range: .283 / .353 / .440 / 128 wRC+ / 5.5 fWAR / -5.6 BsR / 7 DRS
The Seattle first baseman only completed his second full season in the big leagues and shows a lot of promise as he continues to get better each year. In the first half last season, France looked like one of the better hitters in the AL with a 148 wRC+. His second half looked very different after dealing with a wrist injury (98 wRC+). France presents a valuable skill set for a first baseman as he makes a lot of contact (15.3 % K-rate). As strikeouts around the league continue to rise, players who are able and willing to put the ball in play are becoming increasingly more valuable. France does possess power as he hit 18 home runs in 2021 and 20 home runs in 2022. T-Mobile Park is a difficult place to consistently hit home runs but I do think there is more power for France to tap into in the future. France’s .338 OBP is solid but if he can improve his 5.7 % walk rate, his offensive value will only continue to rise.
8. Christian Walker
2022: .242 / .327 / .477 / 122 wRC+ / 4.1 fWAR / -0.3 BsR / 17 DRS
2-Year Range: .243 / .322 / .438 / 108 wRC+ / 4.4 fWAR / 0.8 BsR / 21 DRS
Christian Walker may be a name that surprises you on this list but when you look at his overall numbers, Walker definitely belongs. Walker’s lack of publicity stems from playing for the D-Backs, who are on the rise but have been down for far too long. Walker had an incredible power season last year as his 36 home runs trailed only Pete Alonso’s 40 home runs at the position. Walker’s knowledge of the strike zone and willingness to take a walk (10.3 % BB-rate) allows him to get on base at a desirable rate. For as good of an offensive season as Walker had, he was even better defensively. His 17 DRS was 11 better than Matt Olsen’s 6 defensive runs saved, who finished 2nd on the list in 22’. I appreciate players who impact the game on both sides like Walker can.
7. Nathaniel Lowe
2022: .302 / .358 / .492 / 143 wRC+ / 3.0 fWAR / -3.9 BsR / - 9 DRS
2-Year Range: .283 / .357 / .455 / 129 wRC+ / 4.7 fWAR / -6.1 BsR / -12 DRS
Unless you are a Texas Rangers fan, you may not be aware of the impressive offensive numbers Lowe put up last season. Lowe has been a great addition by the Rangers. Typically, the Tampa Bay Rays don’t lose out on talented players in trades but they may have made a mistake by trading away Lowe. Lowe has the ability to hit for a high average (.302) and still provide a lot of power to the Rangers lineup (27 home runs). Lowe’s BABIP(.363) was significantly higher than the league average, but with the limits on shifts for the upcoming season, I could see a similar number for 23’. What impresses me the most with Lowe has been the lowering of his strikeout rate. With the Rays, he had back-to-back seasons of a K-Rate of 29.6 % and 36.8 %. Last season, Lowe’s K-rate dropped down to 22.8 %, suggesting what he did in 22’ wasn’t a fluke. The only reason Lowe isn’t ranked higher on this list is due to his abysmal defense. Over the last 2 seasons, only the Red Sox Bobby Dalbec had fewer defensive runs saved than Lowe.
6. Jose Abreu
2022: .304 / .378 / .446 / 138 wRC+ / 3.9 fWAR / -1.7 BsR / 1 DRS
2-Year Range: .284 / .365 / .463 / 131 wRC+ / 6.6 fWAR / -6.2 BsR / 0 DRS
Since Abreu debuted in 2014, he has been one of the best overall hitters in the American League. Last year was no different, although he saw his home run total be cut in half from the previous season. Now, Abreu leaves his long time friends in Chicago and travels to arguably the best organization in baseball in the Houston Astros. Playing in Guaranteed Rate Field was a luxury for Abreu as it grades out as one of the more hitter friendly parks in the league (7th according to baseball savant). The short porch at Minute Maid Park should add a few more home runs to his total. Abreu is entering his age 36 season and I would not be shocked if some of his Statcast numbers return more to his career norms compared to what we saw last year. Even if they don’t, a player who has a great understanding of the strike zone and makes contact (16.2 % K-rate) will add a lot of value to that Astros lineup.
5. Matt Olsen
2022: .240 / .325 / .477 / 120 wRC+ / 3.1 fWAR / -0.8 BsR / 6 DRS
2-Year Range: .255 / .348 / .507 / 133 wRC+ / 8.2 fWAR / -0.8 BsR / 12 DRS
Olsen’s first season out of Oakland was solid but not quite what we saw him do for the A’s. It can take some time for players to get acclimated to a new team and he may have felt some pressure to prove that 8 / 168 extension he received before ever putting on a Braves uniform. Now, Olson still hit 34 home runs and drove in 103 runs. In the Atlanta Braves offense, he doesn’t have to be the guy. He doesn’t even have to be a top 3 hitter in that star-studded lineup. He needs to be a run producer, which he did at a high level. Olsen also played in all 162 games, which is such a luxury in today’s game. The concern I have with Olsen is his OBP went from .371 in 21’ to .325 last year and his K-rate jumped almost 8 percent to 24.3 percent. I still believe Olsen can regain his Oakland form but even if he doesn’t, another season like 22’ will have Atlanta Braves fans happy.
4. Pete Alonso
2022: .271 / .352 / .518 / 143 wRC+ / 4.0 fWAR/ -2.5 BsR / -2 DRS
2-Year Range: .267 / .348 / .518 / 138 wRC+ / 7.2 fWAR / -7.6 BsR / 3 DRS
Alonso is somewhat similar to the player who is just above him on this list as he will constantly be chasing his first big league season. Back in 2019, Alonso burst onto the scene as a rookie when he hit 53 home runs. For 99 percent of baseball players, that’s a career season. For Alonso, he did that at the age of 24. Alonso has battled some ups and downs since his rookie season but he has become a smart big league hitter over his four year career. He is more than just a power hitter as he managed to hit .271. He has also cut his strikeout rate every season dropping it to 18.7 % in 22’. It is clear that Alonso has worked hard to improve his approach and swing at the plate. I would like to see his defense improve and see Alonso turn himself into an all-around great first baseman.
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
2022: .274 / .339 / .480 / 132 wRC+ / 2.8 fWAR / - 6.0 BsR / 3 DRS
2-Year Range: .292 / .370 / .539 / 149 wRC+ / 9.1 fWAR / -8.1 BsR / 5 DRS
Guerrero Jr.’s 21’ campaign is going to be a tough season for him to beat for the rest of his career. His 48 home runs and finishing as a runner-up to the MVP award at the age of 22 would be a career year for almost any player. Guerrero Jr. is the one player on this list where his 21’ season held a lot of value. His 22’ campaign was a step back from what he did the previous season but he still had a solid season that saw him finish 16th in the MVP voting. Vladdy Jr. still has an impressive K-rate for someone who has elite power. The challenge for Guerrero Jr. is being patient because everyone knows they are going to pitch carefully to him. His chase rate went from 28.3% in 21’ to 34.2 % last season. The key for Guerrero Jr. to get back to his MVP form is to be selective and take his walks and allow his teammates to force opposing pitchers to pitch to him. The talent is too good to have him any lower on this list.
2. Freddie Freeman
2022: .325 / .407 / .511 / 157 wRC+ / 7.1 fWAR / 5.4 BsR / -2 DRS
2-Year Range: .313 / .400 / .507 / 147 wRC+ / 11.9 fWAR / 8.6 BsR / 0 DRS
When making this list, it was really challenging to not rank Freddie Freeman at number 1 because his numbers have been incredible over the past 2 seasons. I feel like doing so would have been disrespectful to what Goldschmidt has accomplished. Freeman is the definition of consistency. In his first season playing for a new team, it was the same Freddie Freeman as in years past. His elite contact skills (14.4 % K-rate) and his elite plate discipline (11.9 % BB-rate) led Freeman to the second best OBP (.407) in all of baseball last season trailing only Aaron Judge. Freeman is entering his age 33 season and similarly to Goldschmidt, Freeman has had an impressive 13 seasons so far into his career. His career 49 bWAR ranks 34th among all first baseman and is only 16 Wins Above Replacement away from that of an average Hall of Fame first baseman.
1.Paul Goldschmidt
2022: .317 / .404 / .578 / 177 wRC+ / 7.1 fWAR / 3.0 BsR / 2 DRS
2-Year Range: .305 / .384 / .545 / 157 wRC+ / 12.2 fWAR / 5.3 BsR / 11 DRS
Goldschmidt is well on his way to becoming a future Hall of Fame member. He now has that elusive MVP award to go along with 3 top 3 finishes in the award voting. Goldy has received MVP votes in every season dating back to 2015. His skill set is unique in today’s game as he is one of the rare players who can hit for average along with power. Goldschmidt is entering his age 35 season and by all accounts, he doesn’t seem to be slowing down. St. Louis was a perfect city for Goldy to end up in as many players seem to find success late in their career wearing a Cardinals’ uniform. The permanent DH should allow a player Goldschmidt to extend his career even longer. Goldschmidt is only 6.5 Wins Above Replacement away from that of an average Hall of Fame first baseman. The first base position has a lot of talent at the top of the position but you will have a hard time finding a category where Goldschmidt isn’t leading the pack.
Who doesn’t belong on this list?
Who did I miss?
What is your top 10 first base rankings?
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