Our next position group is the outfield. I chose to group all of the different outfield positions together because many outfielders move around among the 3 positions rather than stay in RF for every game. I was unsure how I would treat players who played 60 games in LF and 70 games in RF and I did not think I would find 10 players at each position that fit my criteria. I also really enjoyed determining the best of the best of the outfield because it was a challenge to rank these talented players. And I cannot believe my #3 is not my #1.
With my top 10s, I will mainly be looking at what the players have done over the last 3 years, and obviously weighing 2021 the most. I chose to look at a 3 year window because the 2020 shortened season was so funky. I find a ton of value in players who are just consistent year after year. I also did not just want to look at 2021 because it would allow for potential rookies to work their way up the rankings a little too quickly. Not counting anomalies, there needs to be some track record in my eyes to earn one of the top spots. Now, let’s dive into the top 10 Outfielders.
10. Nick Castellanos
2021: .309 / .362 / .576 / 140 wRC+ / 4.2 fWAR / -0.5 BsR / -7 DRS
3 Year Range: 349 GP out of 384 / 7.3 fWAR / -2.2 BsR / -20 DRS
I always wondered what Castellanos could have done if he played in a hitters’ ballpark. In Detroit, he displayed good power numbers (15-26 HR) but was a doubles machine playing in large Comerica Ballpark. When he was traded to Chicago in 2019, we saw a glimpse of what he could do in a more hitter friendly ballpark. In his first full season in Great American Ballpark, Castellanos proved that he can still be a doubles hitter (38) but he can also hit the ball out of the ballpark (34). The reason Castellanos finds himself at 10 and not higher on the list is due to his defense and base running. Everyone else on this list provides value besides their bat and I could not see putting him higher than anyone else on the list. With Castellanos being a free agent, it will be interesting to see where he decides to go. Will he choose a hitter friendly ballpark like Great American or return to a big park like Comerica? His value may be determined by his decision.
9. Starling Marte
2021: .310 / .383 / .458 / 134 wRC+ / 5.5 fWAR / 12.3 BsR / -4.0 DRS
3 Year Range: 313 GP out of 384 / 9.8 fWAR / 17.8 BsR / -14.0 DRS
Marte is a different but dynamic hitter in today’s game. A higher average, high OBP player still has a ton of value in today’s game. Marte puts a ton of pressure on the defense with his speed and the ability to steal bags is a rarity in today’s game. Marte leads all of baseball with 82 stolen bases over the last 3 seasons. It was nice to see a player who is not a power hitter get a big contract (4 / 78 M). The 33 year-old outfielder will now join the Mets and his skillset will be a welcomed sign for the Mets lineup that finished 27th in runs and 20th in team average. For someone with great speed, Marte’s defense is a bit of a surprise to me. I can admit that I did not watch a ton of Marte in 21’ as I typically don’t watch a lot of Marlins games but I will be watching a lot more of Marte with him joining the Mets.
8. Bryan Reynolds
2021: .302 / .390 / .522 / 142 wRC+ / 5.5 fWAR / 3.0 BsR / -5 DRS
3 Year Range: 348 GP of of 384 / 8.7 fWAR / 2.0 BsR / 8 DRS
Reynolds may be the player on this list that you are the least familiar with simply because he plays for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Unless you are an avid baseball fan and will sit down and watch the Pirates and Rockies, you probably don’t realize the Pirates have one of the best pure hitters in the game. He has the 15th best average since breaking into the league in 2019 (.290) while hitting 47 home runs. What makes his numbers even more impressive is, like many, the Covid shortened 20’ season was a struggle for him. He hit .189 in 55 games. Reynolds finished 4th in the ROY in 2019, had a terrible 2020 season, and finished 11th in the MVP voting in 21’. Playing for a Pirates organization with zero direction and zero signs of a future makes Reynolds an interesting trade chip moving forward. I don’t see him being moved next season but with 4 years of team control, moving him with 2-3 years remaining on his rookie deal would optimize the return for the Pirates. Pittsburgh fans, you better enjoy watching him while you can.
7. Kris Bryant
2021: .265 / .353 / .481/ 123 wRC+ / 3.6 fWAR / 5.4 BsR / -3 DRS
3 Year Range: 325 GP out of 384 / 8.7 fWAR / 10.9 BsR / -4 DRS
I chose to put Bryant in the outfield group because he played 98 games in the outfield in 21’ and he belonged on 1 of the top 10 lists. The tricky thing with Bryant is he spoiled us early in his career. He won the MVP award in his second full season in the big leagues back in 2016 and I feel many hold him to that standard. Bryant hasn’t quite gotten back to that version of himself but he is still a middle-of-the-order bat that runs the bases well and is extremely versatile. Bryant is still a free agent and it will be interesting to see how much he gets paid because will his contract reflex his first 3 seasons when he was a 6-7 WIN player or the last 4 years when he was a 2-4 WIN player. I believe whoever takes a chance on him will be getting a steal and we still can see the early MVP-like form from Bryant.
6. Aaron Judge
2021: .287 / .373 / .544 / 148 wRC+ / 5.5 fWAR / -0.1 BsR / 10 DRS
3 Year Range: 278 GP out of 384 / 11.0 fWAR / 0.4 BsR / 34 DRS
Being a Red Sox fan, I hate to give any Yankee player credit but when Judge is healthy, he is extremely productive. The raw power has always been on display for Judge but he continues to improve as a hitter as his K rate has dropped over the last 2 seasons to 25 %. When Judge burst onto the scene back in 2017, he was walking at an elite 18.7 %. I would like to see his K rate continue to drop while his Walk rate rises. It all comes down to laying off of the high fastball for Judge. What is equally impressive with the Yankee right fielder is his defense. He trails only Kevin Kiermaier by 1 DRS for the most in baseball since the beginning of the 2019 season. With 1 year left on his rookie deal, it will be interesting to see what the Yankees do with their face of the franchise.
5. Ronald Acuña
2021: .283 / .394 / .596 / 157 wRC+ / 4.2 fWAR / 3.8 BsR / 2 DRS
3 Year Range: 284 GP out of 384 / 12.1 fWAR / 14 BsR / 12 DRS
Acuña was putting together an MVP caliber season when the star right fielder went down in the outfield in Miami and ended up tearing his ACL. Remarkably, Atlanta was able to overcome losing their superstar and won the World Series. When healthy, Acuña is similar to Betts as he is an elite hitter, an elite base runner and an above average defender. We will have to monitor how well he recovers from his ACL tear and we cannot assume he will be the same menace on the base paths as he was prior to the injury. Whether Acuña’s game changes a bit will not change how I feel about his bat. I would bet the ranch that there will be an MVP in his future.
4. Mookie Betts
2021: .264 / .367 / .487 / 131 wRC+ / 3.9 fWAR / -1.2 BsR / 4 DRS
3 Year Range: 327 GP out of 384 / 13.4 fWAR / 7.7 BsR / 34 DRS.
Betts dealt with a bunch of small injuries throughout the season and only played in 122 games. He didn’t have his typical “Mookie season” but when he played, he was still very productive. Betts and Judge are hands down the best defensive outfielders on this list and if Betts is healthy for 22’, I expect him to impact the game in all 3 areas and finish somewhere in the top 10 of the MVP voting. My only concern with Betts is with him being a smaller athlete, how will his body hold up as he ages? I am not ready to start sweating based on 1 season of nagging injuries but Betts would not be the first smaller baseball player to break down at an earlier age than expected.
3. Mike Trout
2021: .333 / .466 / .624 / 190 wRC+ / 2.3 fWAR / 1.5 BsR / -4 DRS
3 Year Range: 223 GP out of 384 / 13.2 fWAR / 10.0 BsR / -17 DRS
Do I really think Trout is the third best outfielder in baseball? No! Absolutely not! But I cannot put Trout in the top spot when he has played in 58 percent of the games over the past 3 seasons. Players can only help their teams when they are in the lineup and Trout has been unable to stay healthy. I could not put him over Soto, who had 3 straight massive seasons, and a player in Harper who won the MVP. Trout will probably go down as a top 15, maybe even top 10 player to ever play the game, but he has 1 career postseason hit. It’s time Mike Trout plays a full season and makes an impact in October.
2. Bryce Harper
2021: .309 / .429 / .615 / 170 wRC+ / 6.6 fWAR / -2.5 BsR / -6 DRS
3 Year Range: 356 GP out of 384 / 12.8 fWAR / -3.7 BsR / 4 DRS
So far, Harper has been worth every penny of that big time deal the Phillies gave him and he just won his second MVP award. Unlike many of the other names on this list, Harper has been extremely durable since joining Philadelphia playing in 93 percent of the games over the last 3 seasons. I don’t expect Harper to slow down over the next couple of seasons as the ballpark (Citizens Bank) is a perfect fit for his swing and he has the protection around him in Realmuto and Hoskins. The only concern I have for Harper is the -6 DRS last season. He still has a +4 DRS over the last 3 seasons but as players age, typically their defense declines. Hopefully Harper just had a down season defensively and can get back to being at least an average defender to go along with his elite offensive production. Maybe the DH coming to the National League will save Harper toward the end of that big contract.
1.Juan Soto
2021: .313 / .465 / .534 / 163 wRC+ / 6.6 fWAR / -3.3 BsR / 4 DRS
3 Year Range: 348 GP out of 384 / 14 fWAR / -4.3 BsR / -3 DRS
I thought long and hard before making my top choice but the more I look at Soto’s numbers, the more I tell myself he has to be number 1. Three straight top 10 MVP finishes and he probably would have won the award in 21’ if his team wasn’t awful. And the crazy part about it all is he is only 23 years-old. It was reported last week that Soto turned down a 350 million dollar extension with the Nationals because he wants to wait for free agency to commit to an organization long term. There’s a possibility that some organization could throw 500 million at him when his rookie contract is up. The Nationals are in a rebuild and it will be interesting to see how teams pitch to Soto as there is not a lot around him that will scare the opposing team. I would expect something similar to his league leading 145 walks in 21’ to be the norm as I would make anyone but Soto beat me. But the talent is elite.
What are your outfield rankings?