Our next and final position group are the starting pitchers. This position group is loaded at the top with power arms and filthy repertoires. With this list, the rankings do not reflect who I would choose for a win-or-go-home game. I am looking at the full body of work. With my top 10s, I have been looking at what the players have done over the last 3 years, and obviously weighing 2021 the most. I chose to look at a 3 year window because the 2020 shortened season was so funky. I find a ton of value in players who are just consistent year after year. I also did not just want to look at 2021, because it would allow for potential rookies to work their way up the rankings a little too quickly. Not counting anomalies, there needs to be some track record in my eyes to earn one of the top spots. Now, let’s dive into the top 10 starting pitchers.
10. Marcus Stroman
2021: 33 GS, 179 IP, 3.02 ERA, 7.94 K/9, 0.85 HR/9, 3.4 fWAR
3 Year Range: 65 G, 363 IP, 3.12 ERA, 7.85 K/9, 0.87 HR/9, 7.2 fWAR
Stroman is a pitcher that has grown on me over the years. When he was with Toronto, I thought he was extremely cocky and he was a little too inconsistent early in his career. Two things that I will say about Stroman is he is an awesome competitor and he knows how to pitch. Stroman is one of those pitchers who does not rely on the strikeout (7.9 K/9) but can carve up an opponent’s lineup by locating and changing speeds. His 50.8 % ground ball rate ranks 7th among all starters. He gave up the 3rd fewest fly balls last season (26.4 %), which allows him to be successful in any ballpark. Stroman signed a 2/50M dollar deal with the Cubs. It will be interesting to see if the Cubs can become competitive during his time with the team.
9. Sandy Alcantara
2021: 33 GS, 205 IP, 3.19 ERA, 8.80 K/9, 0.92 HR/9, 4.2 fWAR
3 Year Range: 72 GS, 445 IP, 3.48 ERA, 7.91 K/9, 0.97 HR/9, 7.3 fWAR
Alcantara is the pitcher on this list that people probably know the least about because he pitches for the Marlins. I don’t know too many non-Marlins fans that will sit down to watch Alcantara pitch unless it’s against their favorite team. The Marlins’ ace was one of 4 pitches to top 200 innings (205) and his K/9 jumped from 6.9 in 2019 to 8.6 over the last 2 seasons combined. I’m not a believer in the idea that you have to be a strikeout pitcher to be an elite starter but strikeouts do allow pitchers to escape some jams with the lack of contact. Not only has Alcantara’s K/9 jumped but his BB/9 has decreased every year since his rookie season to a career best 2.2 in 2021. The NL East is loaded with talent but expect the Marlins to have a strong pitching staff anchored by Alcantara.
8. Lance Lynn
2021: 28 GS, 157 IP, 2.69 ERA, 10.09 K/9, 1.03 HR/9, 4.2 fWAR
3 Year Range: 74 GS, 449 IP, 3.26 ERA, 10.24 K/9, 1.04 HR/9, 12.3 fWAR
Lynn’s career has been like a seesaw. When he broke into the league with St. Louis, he gave the Cardinals an instant middle of the rotation arm as every season he had an ERA below 4 during his 6 seasons with the Cardinals. Then he went to the A.L. and really struggled as his ERA ballooned to 5.10 in 20 starts with the Minnesota Twins in 2018. The Rangers signed him in 2019 and he rediscovered himself and has continued to evolve into the pitcher we saw in 2021 that finished 3rd in the CY voting. Lynn’s repertoire is unlike any other starters in the game, because he throws a variation of his fastball (cutter or sinker) on 83 percent of his pitches. Lynn practically dares hitters because they know what is coming and they still cannot do a lot of damage with it.
7. Julio Urias
2021: 32 GS, 185 IP, 2.96 ERA, 9.45 K/9, 0.92 HR/9, 5.0 fWAR
3 Year Range: 80 G, 50 GS, 320 IP, 2.89 ERA, 9.13 K/9, 0.87 HR/9, 7.8 fWAR
The hype around Urias has been incredibly high since he debuted as a 19 year-old back in 2016. When players debut at that age, you lose track of how young they still are. Urias is only 25. After batting injuries and mainly working his wavy back out of the pen, the Dodgers finally committed to putting Urias in the rotation full time and he was a 20 game winner. Urias made 32 starts and logged 185 innings. I will be curious to see how the Dodger lefty responds to such a big increase in his workload in 22’. If the lefty can continue to be durable, he will form one of the best 1-2 combos in baseball with Walker Buehler.
6. Corbin Burnes
2021: 28 GS, 167 IP, 2.43 ERA, 12.61 K/9, 0.38 HR/9, 7.5 fWAR
3 Year Range: 72 G, 41 GS, 275 IP, 3.49 ERA, 12.80 K/9, 0.85 HR/9, 9.6 fWAR
Burnes followed up his breakout performance in the truncated 2020 season with a CY award in 21’. If you look at Burnes’ numbers, he led the league in a ton of categories.
ERA: 1st (2.43)
K/9: 1st (12.6)
K/BB: 1st (6.88)
HR/9: 1st (0.4)
fWAR: 1st (7.5)
The only knock against Burnes is he was a part of a 6-man rotation that the Brewers used for much of the season and only totaled 167 innings. I am not questioning Burnes’ talent or production. When he throws, it’s elite production. When I think of the game’s best aces, I think of work horses that throw 200+ innings season after season. With the changes in how pitchers are used in today’s game, maybe I have to adjust my criteria for CY caliber pitchers. But I hate the thought of doing that. Either way, Burnes belongs on this list and I am excited to see if he can repeat his incredible 2021.
5. Walker Buehler
2021: 33 GS, 207 IP, 2.47 ERA, 9.19 K/9, 0.82 HR/9, 5.5 fWAR
3 Year Range: 71 GS, 426 IP, 2.89 ERA, 9.89 K/9, 0.97 HR/9, 11.1 fWAR
Last season, Buehler made it very clear that his name belongs with the game’s best pitchers. It was the first time he topped the 200 inning mark in his career and led the league with 33 starts among NL pitchers. Buehler will be entering his age 27-28 season and after last year I think we can assume the training wheels are off. The Dodgers like to bring their young pitchers along slowly, which they did with Buehler. Now, it is time for the right hander to take over the ace role that was once held by Clayton Keyshawn for about a decade. I was shocked to see that Buehler did not receive 1 first place vote for the CY award despite having an incredible season. I can definitely envision seeing Walker Buehler win a CY by the time his career is over. 2022 could be the season.
4. Zack Wheeler
2021: 32 GS, 213 IP, 2.78 ERA, 10.42 K/9, 0.68 HR/9, 7.3 fWAR
3 Year Range: 74 GS, 479 IP, 3.28 ERA, 9.29 K/9, 0.77 HR/9, 13.8 fWAR
Wheeler was an absolute workhorse for the Phillies last season as he was 1 of 4 pitchers to top 200 innings and threw the most innings among starters (213). What took Wheeler’s game to the next level was his K/9. In 2020, his K/9 was 6.72 but last season in jumped all the way to 10.42, putting his name among the elite starters. Wheeler finished second in the CY voting, and I thought he had a legitimate chance to win since he threw 46 more innings than Corbin Burnes. Just as I value position players being able to play 150+ games, I value starting pitchers who throw 200+ innings. The Phillies ace dealt with injuries early in his career but has been very durable over the last 4 seasons (Min. of 29 GS). The Phillies have made some big moves this off-season to improve their offense. They will need their ace to have another big season if they want to make the playoffs for the first time since 2011. Hard to believe it’s been that long.
3. Gerrit Cole
2021: 30 GS, 181 IP, 3.23 ERA, 12.06 K/9, 1.19 HR/9, 5.3 fWAR
3 Year Range: 75 GS, 466 IP, 2.84 ERA, 12.79 K/9, 1.29 HR/9, 14.2 fWAR
There is very little margin for error for Gerrit Cole. He signed a massive deal with the New York Yankees and expectations were set immediately. When you play for the biggest brand and get paid that much money, you open yourself up to being watched through a microscope. Cole has been exactly what the Yankees have needed. He’s been pretty durable and has given them a ton of quality innings. What Yankees fans will say is he had a 4.91 ERA against the Red Sox in the regular season and couldn’t make it out of the third inning against Boston in the Wild Card game. With the Yankees, it often feels like it’s World Series or bust. Cole did not give the Yankees a chance by getting bombed early in that Wild Card game and until he proves he can be dominant in October, the regular season won’t carry too much weight.
2. Jacob deGrom
2021: 15 GS, 92 IP, 1.08 ERA, 14.28 K/9, 0.59 HR/9, 4.9 fWAR
3 Year Range: 59 GS, 364 IP, 2.08 ERA, 122.49 K/9, 0.79 HR/9, 14.4 fWAR
In terms of overall stuff, deGrom is number 1 on this list and it isn’t even close. The Mets ace was putting up historic numbers last season before having 438 different injuries that caused him to miss a bunch of starts. Eventually, deGrom was shut down due to an elbow injury and we the fans do not quite know the extent of the injury. The Mets organization tried to downplay the injury but fans will quickly learn how truthful they were last season when deGrom takes the hill this year. If he is able to make 25-30 starts, then it was just a small strain of the UCL. For baseball, it would be awesome if deGrom can complete an entire season and put up huge numbers. deGrom is an incredible talent but health is a huge question for me and the reason he is not number 1.
1.Max Scherzer
2021: 30 GS, 179 IP, 2.46 ERA, 11.84 K/9, 1.15 HR/9, 5.4 fWAR
3 Year Range: 69 GS, 419 IP, 2.86 ERA, 12.26 K/9, 1.10 HR/9, 13.7 fWAR
There’s a reason Scherzer signed a 2/86 M dollar deal with the Mets. He’s been the best and most consistent starter over the last decade and despite entering his age 37-38 season, he shows no sign of slowing down. Since 2010, Scherzer has thrown the most innings (2,310), has the second lowest ERA (3.09 - Min. 500 innings), and has the second best fWAR (62.1). And the version of Mad Max that we saw after the trade deadline with the Dodgers might have been the best of his career. He now joins the New York Mets and forms one of the greatest 1-2 combos to ever play the game as he is 1A and deGrom is 1B. The health of deGrom will dictate the usage of Scherzer. Ideally, the Mets would like to keep Mad Max around 180 innings so that he is fresh for October. If deGrom cannot stay healthy, the Mets may be forced to lean on the soon to be 38 year-old for an even bigger workload. When you get paid 43 million dollars to make 28-32 starts, that type of usage should be expected by Mets fans.
What are your Starting Pitcher rankings?