Using Dalbec to Predict Duran
As a part of Red Sox nation, I don’t recall a more scrutinized rookie than Bobby Dalbec. I am not sure if it was the 5 straight games with a home run or the raw power that the scouting reports described but his performance has been held under a microscope. Dalbec definitely had a tough first half but his second half has been as strong as anyone on the Red Sox.
It definitely looks like the game has slowed down a bit for Dalbec and he has made some swing / approach adjustments. With some prospects, it just takes repetitions and time. This year’s hyped prospect was Jarren Duran and rightfully so. The numbers that he put up in the minors were eye opening but when he finally got his chance in the big leagues, he struggled. I believe us Sox fans can look at Dalbec as an example of the ups and downs that Duran is / will go through.
If we are talking about how important repetitions and time are for prospects, then we first need to look at the minor league statistics. The main two statistics that I focused on are plate appearances and strikeout rate because both Dalbec and Duran have struggled with making contact.
Obviously, Duran dominated A/A+ but 488 less minor league plate appearances in A ball or higher is a significant number. 488 plate appearances is almost a full year’s worth of ABs. With Duran making a significant swing change like he did last year at the alternate site, more repetitions is only going to be beneficial. I understand why Red Sox fans were so excited about Duran’s future and wanted him in the big leagues. I think it is becoming more common for position players to just take a little more time to develop with how strong major league pitching is in today’s game.
The second thing we need to look at is the debut in the big leagues. Now, Dalbec had quite a debut in the truncated 2020 season capped off by his 5 consecutive games with a home run. If we look at the first 100ish plate appearances, Dalbec clearly had the better start.
With Dalbec, something had to give. He either had to drop his strikeout rate or his production was going to drop over an extended period of time. When Dalbec was named the primary first baseman, the “rookie” did not see the same success as he did in his real short stint with the BoSox. If you compare Dalbec’s first half of this season to Duran’s short time with the club, the numbers are very similar.
Other than Dalbec having a little more than double the plate appearances, the numbers are identical.
Now, there are a few theories as to why Dalbec turned his season around. Did he finally wake up when the Red Sox got Kyle Schwarber at the deadline and his playing time was starting to be jeopardized? Did he make some swing / approach changes when he was not playing everyday?
I would say both are probably right as Dalbec started to perform much better when Schwarber joined the Red Sox and he started pulling the ball with authority, something he was not doing in the first half.
The Red Sox have been patient with Dalbec. He has had 400+ ABsavainst Major League pitching to make adjustments and Dalbec has rewarded ownership's patience. The situation was perfect for Dalbec this season. The Red Sox offense was very deep and could afford to have a hole at the bottom of their lineup. The Red Sox have gotten above average production at the Shortstop position with Xander Bogaerts, a position that is sometimes difficult to find power at, so they can afford to lose some production at first base. The other thing that was in Dalbec’s favor was that the Red Sox had no one to compete with him at the position. Their depth was so bad at first that they brought in Travis Shaw, who at the time was hitting below .200. Bobby D has had the ups and downs of a rookie but the consistent ABs has allowed him to really take a step forward in his development over the past 2 months.
For Duran, I do not see the same path. The Red Sox already have two outfield spots locked up with Renfroe (assuming they give him a contract) and Verdugo. They can also continue to use Kiké in center like they have for a large portion of this season.
As a Red Sox fan, I would not be comfortable with Duran starting next season as 1 of the 3 outfielders. Based on how his first 112 plate appearances went, I think he has enough things to work on at AAA. The strikeout rate cannot be in the 30s. He does not have a strong understanding of the strike zone and he is very susceptible to the high fastball. Once Major League pitchers find a weakness in your game, they will exploit it every time. It is on Duran now to try to correct it.
I think Duran should start the season at AAA. I believe he needs about another half of a season of ABs to prove what type of hitter he really is going to be in the future. I love the power / speed combo of his game but the Red Sox cannot afford to put any player in their lineup with a 35+ percent strikeout rate. I still love the talent but I think Duran is just another example that patience and repetitions are needed to further his development.
What do you think the Red Sox will do with Duran next season?
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