Why to Watch Spring Training.
I never was a big fan of Spring Training but I’ve grown to really enjoy it.
Red Sox baseball is back. Spring Training games officially start today when the Red Sox open up against Northeastern University. Saturday will be their first official Spring Training game when they play against the Baltimore Orioles.
It seems like there are 2 groups of baseball fans when it comes to Spring Training. Group 1 absolutely loves it. The fans enjoy traveling to see their favorite team play in warm weather and enjoy following the top prospects. Group 2 wants nothing to do with it and uses the phrase “Wake me up when the real games start.” For a long time believe it or not, I was a part of group 2 as I was always playing baseball myself and I wanted to watch games that matter.
Over the last couple of years, I have tried to give Spring Training another chance and look at it through a different lens. Rather than focus on the hype of players in the past that never turned into something (cough cough Lars Anderson), I now watch and follow the action so that I know who the Opening Day roster is. One player in particular last Spring that really changed my perspective was Josh Winckowski.
Winckowski debuted the season before last Spring but as a starting pitcher and was up and down. It felt like most knew who Winckowski was as a pitcher, at least as a starting pitcher. Reports came out early last Spring that Winck could be used in the bullpen in a multiple innings role. Then, Red Sox Nation found out that his velocity was up and that he was focusing on his slider. Winckowski quickly showcased the changes he made in the off-season and those changes were present for the entire month of March. By the end of Spring Training, Winckowski threw 16 innings, had a 1.13 ERA, and 17 strikeouts.
Now, just because Winckowski dominated in Spring Training did not guarantee he would succeed during the regular season. Red Sox fans once saw Bobby Dalbec turn into Barry Bonds during Spring Training (1.052 OPS in 2022). I'm not here to throw any shade at Bobby D but he comes to mind as being a March legend.
Winckowski’s success in the Spring translated immediately into the regular season. In 10 appearances in the month of April, Winckowski threw 19 innings and had a 1.40 ERA with 16 strikeouts. Winck looked like the same pitcher from the Grapefruit League. Winckowski went on to appear in the most games by a Red Sox pitcher last season (60) and threw the most innings by a Boston reliever (84.1). All while pitching to a 2.88 ERA and a respectable 8.8 K/9. Due to how much I followed last Spring, it was cool to see where Winckowski’s 2023 journey started.
This Spring, my focus is going to be on Ceddanne Rafaela. The Red Sox did not go out and sign one of the big free agent outfield bats. As of now, they have yet to replace Adam Duvall from last year’s outfield. It looks like Rafaela has a chance to win the center field job in camp. Alex Cora said last week that if Rafaela breaks camp with the team, he will be their center fielder.
With Rafaela, there is doubt that he is ready defensively. I’m sure many Red Sox fans have that play that he misplayed in Toronto stuck in their head and that may cause them to be cautious with him but the fact is everyone that talks about this kid’s glove believes he is going to win multiple Gold Gloves. He may make a mistake here and there as he learns the position at the big league level and Fenway Park quirks but his highlight reel last year in September was exciting.
Rafaela has the ability to make plays that no other outfielder on the roster can make. And frankly, based on what we have seen over the last couple of seasons defensively, Rafaela can only be an upgrade defensively.
The real question will be how well Rafaela does with the bat this Spring. Last season in 83 ABs, he hit .241 with a 31.5% K-rate and only a 4.5% walk rate. We are only talking about 83 at-bats but Rafaela did have concerns about controlling the strike zone in the minor leagues. This Spring, I want to see Rafaela make a lot of contact and be aggressive in the strike zone. I don’t think Rafaela’s profile will ever be a player with a walk rate around 10%. I think he can be a player who swings at a lot of pitches in the zone and sprays the ball all over the field while using his elite speed.
Even if Rafaela has a terrific Spring and makes the team, there is no guarantee those results will translate to the regular season. If those results allow for him to make the big league club at the start of the season, it just might give him the opportunity to show the baseball world why he has been such a highly ranked prospect.
The 2024 Red Sox are a team with little expectations as of February 23rd. Ceddanne Rafaela is one of those players that could burst onto the scene and drastically change the outlook of the team this season. Rafaela is a player that is worth turning Spring Training games on for and to see if he is trending towards making the Opening Day roster.
Enjoy watching the Boston Red Sox take the baseball diamond today.